Vaibhav Anand

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An insightful discussion of my paper by @mattkahn1966.bsky.social

Thank you for highlighting the work. The post raises interesting questions on how tech innovations (e.g., remote work, autonomous cars) might interact with these traditional adaptation measures (e.g., weather advisories).

Thanks @joshua-goodman.com for highlighting the paper.

Here is the ungated version papers.ssrn.com/abstract=420...

Important advance for simulated instruments

Fully AI driven weather prediction system could start revolution in forecasting A new AI weather prediction system, Aardvark Weather, can deliver accurate forecasts tens of times faster and using thousands of times less computing power t

🌤️ Our #AI weather forecasting model has been published today in Nature 🤖

🥇the first AI weather model to learn directly from raw environmental observations

🌎 compared to existing AI models it is cheaper to train, uses less carbon and easier to deploy locally

www.turing.ac.uk/news/fully-a...

Heads (and elbows) up: The call for abstracts for the 9th Conference on Econometric Models of Climate Change (University of Victoria, BC, Canada – Aug. 27-28, 2025) is open until April 17th! #Econsky

Looking forward to seeing you in August!

More info at: www.tinyurl.com/emcc2025uvic

9/ Ungated link to the paper: papers.ssrn.com/abstract=420...

8/ A big thanks to my advisors, friends, family, reviewers, and fellow researchers who provided valuable feedback and tremendous support without which this study wouldn't have been possible.

7/ Bottom line: Weather forecasts are valuable! Improving forecast lead times has material economic benefits. People and institutions pay attention to forecasts and advisories.

6/ My estimates suggest longer lead times on winter advisories reduce approximately 13.2 crashes per 100,000 people each year, resulting in an annual savings of approximately USD 190 million.

5/ I provide evidence of two mechanisms at work here:
• Individual behavior: People visit fewer places when they get advisories earlier
• Institutional response: Snowplow crews intensify road maintenance operations when advisories arrive earlier

4/ In fact, at the current timescale of forecast horizon, the marginal benefits of additional lead time don't decrease--longer the lead time, fewer the crashes.

3/ Winter advisories with longer lead times DO reduce vehicle crashes, even when they're less accurate than advisories with shorter lead times.

Research Question: Significant resources go into improving #forecast accuracy, but we know little about the value of longer lead times. Does getting warnings earlier actually provide economic benefits? I examined this question in the context of winter weather and crashes.

Excited to share that my job market paper "Does Getting Forecasts Earlier Matter? Evidence from Winter Advisories and Vehicle Crashes" is forthcoming in AEJ Policy!

Agree about the name--it is confusing. Though I didn't think about it earlier, sampling within a pre-defined insurance unit may reduce basis risk even more. e.g., in home ins, a unit could be homes that share similar characteristics (age, roof type, elevation). Thanks for highlighting this.

Crop cutting experiments (CCE) based crop ins in India might be an example. I believe the sample farms for CCE are randomly chosen within an insurance unit (a village). CCEs determine the actual yield, which determines the payout. Although, not sure if the CCE farms are themselves insured or not.

Join us at #AERE2024 for an exciting plenary on America's Trillion Dollar Climate Investment. We'll hear from panelists Karen Palmer, Arik Levinson, Lori Bennear, and Nathaniel Keohane, moderated by Joe Aldy

📈📉

How AI is improving climate forecasts Researchers are using various machine-learning strategies to speed up climate modelling, reduce its energy costs and hopefully improve accuracy. Researchers are using various machine-learning strategi...

"Machine learning makes this science a lot more fun,” says Tapio Schneider. New climate feature in Nature by Carissa Wong:

More timely than expected: Check out my latest Economic Letter showing extreme weather events cause uncertainty for affected firms that lasts several months.

We focus on hurricanes but find similar effects after other extreme weather events.

#EconSky #ExtremeWeather

www.frbsf.org/economic-res...