@ryandecker.bsky.social
Macroeconomist from western Colorado. Views are my own. https://rdecker.net
Advancing economic measurement conference happening soon and streaming on YouTube: www.nber.org/conferences/...
13.11.2025 12:34 — 👍 5 🔁 2 💬 0 📌 1Jason Faberman and I presented "everything you ever wanted to know about firm and worker dynamics" at a conference in honor of the great John Haltiwanger. Slides here: rdeckernet.github.io/website/deck...
08.11.2025 14:07 — 👍 18 🔁 5 💬 0 📌 0Jason Faberman and I presented "everything you ever wanted to know about firm and worker dynamics" at a conference in honor of the great John Haltiwanger. Slides here: rdeckernet.github.io/website/deck...
08.11.2025 14:07 — 👍 18 🔁 5 💬 0 📌 0Short note with Robin Braun and @fkamal.bsky.social on tariffs and spare capacity in manufacturing
31.10.2025 19:50 — 👍 3 🔁 2 💬 0 📌 0Short note with Robin Braun and @fkamal.bsky.social on tariffs and spare capacity in manufacturing
31.10.2025 19:50 — 👍 3 🔁 2 💬 0 📌 0
Figure 5. Utilization growth and import protection by average production period
The authors show reasons might include soft demand (orders), insufficient labor supply, and lags in the production process (average period of production or APP). (3/3) www.federalreserve.gov/econres/note... #FEDSNote #EconSky
31.10.2025 19:45 — 👍 4 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0
Figure 2. Spare capacity and import protection
Figure 3. Recent utilization growth and new import protection
Figure 4. Reasons for operating below capacity versus new import protection
But looking across industries, this spare capacity is not particularly concentrated in industries gaining new tariff protection. In 2025 so far, capacity utilization has not risen more in industries receiving more new import protection. (2/3) www.federalreserve.gov/econres/note... #FEDSNote
31.10.2025 19:45 — 👍 12 🔁 5 💬 1 📌 0
Figure 1. Capacity utilization has been subdued
Capacity utilization in manufacturing has been subdued, suggesting potential for tariffs to boost production in existing factories. (1/3) www.federalreserve.gov/econres/note... #FEDSNote #EconSky
31.10.2025 19:45 — 👍 5 🔁 1 💬 1 📌 1We have several per capita exercises in the Brookings paper
25.11.2024 12:06 — 👍 5 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0There is much more to learn, but we can already rule out some of the stories people initially consider.
1. The surge isn't about PPP fraud.
2. It's not just gig economy stuff.
3. It's not just about dislocated workers with no better options.
More research to come!
Finally, in this recent short update we describe data on actual employer firms births, the size of the new entrants, and the recent cooling (though still elevated) pace of entry. rdeckernet.github.io/website/DH_b...
25.11.2024 02:27 — 👍 5 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0
In this short note, we explored high tech industries specifically, which saw a disproportionate surge in biz entry. www.federalreserve.gov/econres/note...
25.11.2024 02:26 — 👍 2 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0
I'm this @brookingsinst.bsky.social paper, we documented pandemic-related themes in the biz formation data, including industry patterns, geographic patterns, and even correlation with the "Great Resignation" story. www.brookings.edu/articles/sur...
25.11.2024 02:26 — 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0Glad to see folks here talking about the recent surge in entrepreneurship. While much is still unknown, we already have a lot of color on this striking development. Short thread of joint work w/ @jchaltiwangerum.bsky.social
25.11.2024 02:24 — 👍 21 🔁 6 💬 1 📌 0Lots of details on this in a couple of recent papers bsky.app/profile/jcha...
25.11.2024 02:19 — 👍 7 🔁 3 💬 2 📌 0We have updated our findings from the BPEA paper recently. See:
rdeckernet.github.io/website/DH_b...
Ryan Decker and I have studied the surge in new business applications finding that it has led to a surge in new employer businesses. See:
www.brookings.edu/articles/sur...
