Dom White

🤣 All I’m saying is it didn’t happen again.

Used to live in Shepherds Bush but left in 2012. First week we were there, some kid got beaten up on our doorstep. After that, didn’t have a single issue in 8 years. Been back occasionally since and if anything it seems less sketchy.

JANUARY EFFECT, or “Why this inflation report matters more than others”

Since the start of 2022, core CPI has risen 0.45% month-on-month in January, versus an average of 0.33% for all months.

But Valentine’s Day is tomorrow!

There was an interesting blog post from the Dallas Fed on this earlier in the week. Talking about $300bn of annual duration supply in the coming years.

Big Mac consumption

😬

Mitchell Marsh: Australia captain misses T20 World Cup opener with 'testicular bleeding' Australia captain Mitchell Marsh is ruled out of their opening T20 World Cup game against Ireland after suffering

This is bloody nuts.

(Sorry.)

www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricke...

It's a very strong middle finger to the idea that their views might be swayed.

The CBO came up with a very similar figure (based on some work from the Fed) earlier this week.

😳

Jess Phillips and Shabana Mahmood were both in the year below me at school.

I’ve heard that this is a bigger problem within certain demographic cohorts than others, too.

That’s why you need to dilute it with custard.

Person who was fired here - you should still trust BLS data. The agency is being run by the same dedicated career staff who were running it while I was awaiting confirmation from the Senate. And the staff have made it clear that they are blowing a loud whistle if there is interference.

A New U.S. Productivity Chapter? What Industry Data Say About AI Since late 2022, U.S. labor productivity has risen notably above its pre-pandemic trend. Industry data suggest the pickup is not yet broad-based: A small set of industries accounts for most gains. Whi...

"Higher AI adoption aligns with faster productivity growth, but explains only a small share of the aggregate shift".

Might be of interest to @soumayakeynes.ft.com given her recent article on this.

www.kansascityfed.org/research/eco...

The rumour is no

Sounds like a very Spursy solution, so probably not far from the truth.

How Spursy. I guess the cycle flips back to, "hire a coach who plays exciting, expansive football" but the results stay the same?

I think most of those in favour of immigration accept that it requires more investment in housing and public services. They go hand in hand. Immigrants staff our public services and build houses. Doesn't seem coincidental that anti-immigrant sentiment has risen as public services have been defunded.

My mum was a primary school teacher and taught in the 90s and 00s in a primary school in which a large number started without much English. It’s not really a new phenomenon. The salience of these things has just gone up.

It’s not what opinion polls say though. Feels more like the loudest and most aggressive voices rather than a majority.

I’ve reached the “how have I been sleeping on speed skating relays my entire life” stage. Literally one of the most chaotic, entertaining events I’ve seen.

I thought these few paragraphs of a speech he made last year were quite telling. The conviction-based forecast-driven policy approach he seems to be advocating seems like it could go quite badly wrong.

True.

I looked at this slightly differently to Joey. Roughly the same components of fixed investment but focused on how much they’ve deviated from the pre-2020 trend. The figure I arrived at (~$450bn) isn’t far off the trailing 12m capex figure for the big AI hyperscalers.

It's the 10-year Gilt yield over the last 5 trading days.

German exports to China, specifically? Or exports in general? The latter obviously isn't true.

What's the other thing people want to say? (honest question)