Stuart McDonald

Disappointing outcome from trials looking at whether weight loss drug Semaglutide might delay Alzheimer’s disease progression.

Reinforces how difficult it is to find effective treatments for Alzheimer’s and dementia.

No prizes for guessing who grok chose sorry

I asked grok who was the better role model for humanity, Jesus Christ or Elon Musk. GUESS WHAT.

You're right about NI. This report shows that the difference in NI contributions exceeds the difference in State Pension paid out. And more importantly, that State Pension paid out exceeds NI paid in for all income deciles.

I'll delete my tweet.
www.pensionspolicyinstitute.org.uk/media/1crf4o...

The paper includes charts and commentary showing that life expectancy is inversely correlated with poverty. All other literature in the field is consistent.

This ONS data shows that the most deprived group are twice as likely to die age 67-72 vs the least deprived. 👇
www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...

Unfortunately, the remit of the SPA review is narrow. A huge redistribution of income and wealth is well beyond the scope.

I'm not attracted to the idea that since we can't do everything, we should do nothing. SPA increase is fiscally necessary so we have suggested a realistic mitigation.

Will you ever get to retire? Dreams of retirement recede as policymakers grapple with making the state pension sustainable

Thanks @actuarybyday.bsky.social , good to work with you on this. If people are interested in the Telegraph write-up, hopefully this link will work: www.telegraph.co.uk/gift/c0af53a...

Life expectancy and risk of death in 6791 communities in England from 2002 to 2019: high-resolution spatiotemporal analysis of civil registration data In the decade before the COVID-19 pandemic, life expectancy declined in increasing numbers of communities in England. To ensure that this trend does not continue or worsen, there is a need for pro-equ...

Only slightly correlated with income!? That is completely false. Affluence is THE strongest predictor of life expectancy other than age & sex. There's a 27-year difference in life expectancy between men living in deprived parts of Blackpool vs Kensington & Chelsea!
www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...

We’re thinking more about the surviving spouse. And the important context that the people dying at this age are much more likely to be leaving debts than an inheritance. The State Pension is regressive, with affluent groups receiving it for 25-30 years while deprived groups die young.

Yes, it would be payable to beneficiaries of those who sadly died within 5 years of SPA.

Potentially, yes, depending on how Government might choose to implement the policy. Otherwise, it would be payable to their beneficiaries if they die within 5 years.

Should we increase state pension age by ONE year every decade The qualifying age is currently 66 and is already set to rise to 67 between 2026 and 2028, but a Government review is under way to decide further increases.

Here is some coverage of our report. Times and Telegraph are behind paywalls but the first link is accessible to all.

👉 www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/pensio...

👉 www.thetimes.com/business-mon...

👉 www.telegraph.co.uk/money/retire...

3. Since life expectancy is so unequal, mitigate the impact of State Pension Age increases by guaranteeing a minimum 5-year payout to all who reach SPA. This ensures that those with shorter life expectancy, typically deprived groups, get something back for their National Insurance contributions.

2. A 20-year average retirement implies that State Pension Age needs to go up quickly. We believe one year increase every decade is reasonable, though the maths says go faster.

Here are our key recommendations:

1. Tie the State Pension to life expectancy by setting the State Pension Age so that the average person receives it for 20 years.

Current retirees receive it for longer than 20 years on average (which may surprise people!)

Where next for State Pension Age? Experts at LCP have proposed major changes to the UK's State Pension system, designed to make it more sustainable while ensuring it remains fair for those with lower life expectancy.

Today @stevewebb1.bsky.social and I released a report setting out our views on where State Pension Age (SPA) needs to go. We submitted to this to the Government SPA review last month.

We recommend sharp increases to SPA, but with a guaranteed payout of 5 years. 🧵
www.lcp.com/en/insights/...

Headlines:
- tie the State Pension to life expectancy and set SPA so that the average person receives it for 20 years
- this means SPA increasing rapidly; one year per decade is justifiable (the maths says go faster)
- guarantee a minimum 5 year payout, for those with shorter life expectancy at SPA

Where next for State Pension Age? Experts at LCP have proposed major changes to the UK's State Pension system, designed to make it more sustainable while ensuring it remains fair for those with lower life expectancy.

Here is our report - with @stevewebb1.bsky.social

www.lcp.com/en/insights/...

Since the State Pension was first introduced, SPA has *fallen* by 4 years (with some ups and downs along the way).

I’m not sure why previous generations of actuaries were quiet about this. First ruling on an SPA increase (equalisation) was when I was 16 - though I can’t take ALL the credit. 😉

👏🏻

Should we increase state pension age by ONE year every decade The qualifying age is currently 66 and is already set to rise to 67 between 2026 and 2028, but a Government review is under way to decide further increases.

Some thoughts on a nice safe, uncontroversial topic that is sure not to annoy anyone.

“SPA should be hiked by a year once a decade to make it more affordable, but everyone would get at least a five-year payout under a new plan floated by pension experts.”

www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/pensio...

Over the very long term, a smaller population may be more sustainable. But such rapid demographic change may cause significant challenges in the decades ahead, as a smaller working population supports a large retired population. Society will have to significantly adapt to the change.

Flu is spiking up unusually early this year. The chart below shows hospital admissions, compared to six recent flu seasons.

Other indicators like flu test positivity paint the same picture.

From today's @ukhsa.bsky.social surveillance update:
www.gov.uk/government/s...

In the UK the correlation between births and numbers entering primary school (age 4-5) is very strong.

Elon Musk is boosting the British right - and this shows how Elon Musk is boosting the British right - and this shows how

This is really excellent data journalism... Elon Musk has declared war on the British government, it just doesn't realise it.

At least they have an extra decade to plan I suppose. Or is that naïve of me? ;-)

It says a lot about the lack of numeracy in the country, and the priorities of the media/commentariat, that there was so much written about the tiny number of pupils spilling over from private to state, and so little about the inevitable large fall in pupil numbers from lower numbers of births.

Ageing population in Japan leaves schools with empty classrooms As the number of students falls across Japan, a recent ceremony saw only two final graduates before the school closed

Japan shows us one possible future if trends continue unabated.
www.independent.co.uk/news/japan-a...

Is that secondary? Those numbers are still fairly high (2013/14 births up at 700,000) but the fall will come. Surprising if primary demand is that high but might be local factors.

London hit especially badly. 8% less pupils in 2024 compared to 2018.

"Number of unfilled primary school places in England hits record high". Link: on.ft.com/47GtJWJ

We should get used to seeing this story once a year!