visible hands (daniel)

visible hands (daniel)

@putmands.bsky.social

My estimates are unbiased but my takes might be. Development, networks, risk, household finance, applied metrics, and the Green Bay Packers.

72 Followers 215 Following 75 Posts Joined Jul 2023
1 day ago

Complaints are shown in the month received. Usually, it would take some time to resolve a complaint, so the effect would be backdated by these charts mechanically.

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1 day ago

While unhelpful, I think it would be funny to describe culinary process obsessed fancy restaurants (think foams and brittles) as ultraprocessed

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2 days ago

Reminds me of this classic

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3 days ago
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Just read the abstract 🫠 via Alexander Magazinov. I don't believe he is on Bluesky.

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1 week ago

P(I say "that's not a cheesesteak" | ordering a cheesesteak in the mitten state) = 1

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1 week ago

Tbqh I'm flabbergasted by what passes as a cheesesteak in Michigan

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1 week ago

I tried showing my wife a hard pips solve the other week. I realized as I was doing it that it is always obvious what goes where after the fact.

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2 weeks ago

This is a context where "when" and "how much" clearly matter given the huge ethical considerations you're weighing against

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2 weeks ago

I'm probably never going to do work on prediction markets, so here's some little idea for free: Someone should use Kalshi insider trading cases (I assume there will be more) to document whether insider trading by a small few people actually moves a prediction market to yield timely information

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3 weeks ago

NBA celebrity game has a real YMCA try hard guy problem

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1 month ago
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New blog: The Global Collapse in Funding for the Food Insecure

Picture: Countries receiving more or less annual humanitarian support than predicted from number of people food insecure ($bn) 2017-2025.

Thread...

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1 month ago

Shouldn't the pats have gone for two there

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1 month ago
AI Chatbot That Only Responds β€˜Huh’ Valued At $200 Billion

AI Chatbot That Only Responds β€˜Huh’ Valued At $200 Billion https://theonion.com/ai-chatbot-that-only-responds-huh-valued-at-200-billion/

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1 month ago
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If Bilbo had Chat GPT

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1 month ago

Sent some emails, I deserve a little treat (opens overleaf to work on an actual paper)

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2 months ago

The cfb playoff is good, actually

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2 months ago

I genuinely dismissed that it could be on Parsons' blocker so I thought it was on Gary's blocker

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2 months ago

so I guess what they're saying is that it don't mean a thing if it ain't got that swing *ducks*

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2 months ago

good idea

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3 months ago

Is there a rebranded "battle of the sexes" game theory example that has teaching materials associated with it? #econsky

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3 months ago

@dearmodern.bsky.social Can I get a feng shui assessment of the coat bath?

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3 months ago

Making Bolognese

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2 years ago

just started having recency bias and i love it. easily the best bias

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4 months ago

I guess if I was going to, e.g., use an agent, I would be worried that the more time savings that was promised, the more the work performed would depart from the prompt I made---obviously work needs to be checked, but it seems to me to be a problem that issues get worse as verification gets harder

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4 months ago

My strategy has been to increase the number of times I repeat the prompt for smaller batches, but I have learned that GPT is not great at counting slides

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4 months ago
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Nature suggests you use their "Manuscript Adviser" bot to get advice before submitting

I uploaded the classic Watson & Crick paper about DNA structure, and the Adviser had this to say about one of the greatest paper endings of the century:

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4 months ago

Kind of like how it's very hard for robots to put on glasses, Chat GPT really cannot get out of its own way if you ask it to transcribe (in this case moving power point to beamer). As it gets further from the prompt, this decays to where its not really following instructions after ~30 slides

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4 months ago

Ended up in the closest Buffalo wild wings to Michigan State to watch the Packers. They hate hate JJ McCarthy here

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4 months ago

If you run a cross-country growth regression with aid dollars as an independent variable and get a negative coefficient is it that:
-countries doing worse will get more aid on average
-countries doing worse today will do worse in the future
OR
-Aid is entirely broken and reduces growth

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4 months ago

It's been a long time but Moyo's argument didn't do much for me when I read dead aid. In that genre, I'd rather assign Easterly, who is much more transparent about the fact that our evidence around aid in the aggregate will be, by nature, contaminated by selection bias.

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