Bill McBride

The argument that the tariff related pickup in inflation will be transitory is understandable. This will cause a one-time surge in the price of goods.

However:
1) Tariffs don't seem to be settled.
2) there has been a pickup in service inflation in surveys (and that could be persistent).

Interesting point. If we look at the tech bust (2000), housing didn't trigger. However, the yield curve and heavy trucks both indicated recession.

SAHM rule and unemployment claims are usually coincident indicators.

Recession Watch Metrics Early in February , I expressed my "increasing concern" about the negative economic impact of "executive / fiscal policy errors", however, I...

Recession Watch Metrics www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/08/rece...

Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year Another monthly update on rents.

Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/asking-ren...

MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications increased 3.1 percent from one week earlier,...

MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/08/mba-...

BMO: “.. a disappointing and ugly ISM Services report for July. Stagflationary impacts already appear to be rocking the services sector to a greater extent than previously anticipated.

“.. economic activity and job growth are sputtering under the weight of higher tariffs, increasing inflation ..”

Cotality: House Prices Increased 1.7% YoY in June; Weakest June since 2008 From Cotality (formerly CoreLogic): US home price insights — August 2025 The end of the 2025 spring homebuyers season ended softly, with sl...

Cotality: House Prices Increased 1.7% YoY in June; Weakest June since 2008 www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/08/cota...

Q2 NY Fed Report: Mortgage Originations by Credit Score, Foreclosures Decrease The NY Fed released the Q2 Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit this morning.

Q2 NY Fed Report: Mortgage Originations by Credit Score, Foreclosures Decrease calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/q2-ny-fed-...

NY Fed Q2 Report: Household Debt Increased $185 Billion in Q2; Delinquencies Elevated From the NY Fed: Household Debt Growth Remains Steady; Auto Loan Originations Pick Up The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Mic...

NY Fed Q2 Report: Household Debt Increased $185 Billion in Q2; Delinquencies Elevated www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/08/ny-f...

It is understandable that tariffs are pushing up the price of goods, however, service prices are also moving up sharply in this survey!

Prices up sharply. Employment down. This fits with the BLS data.

ISM® Services Index Decreased to 50.1% in July; Prices Paid Highest Since 2022 www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/08/ism-...

This was well below consensus expectations, and employment was very weak, and prices paid high.

Trade Deficit Decreased to $60.2 Billion in June The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported : The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced ...

Trade Deficit Decreased to $60.2 Billion in June www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/08/trad...

Former BLS commissioner says it’s not possible to rig jobs numbers On Friday, President Trump fired the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Erika McEntarfer, after the July jobs report showed job growth had stagnated.

Former BLS commissioner says it’s not possible to rig jobs numbers www.wbur.org/hereandnow/2...

Lowest Mortgage Rates Since Early October www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mort...

Heavy Truck Sales Decreased 12% YoY in July www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/08/heav...

Isn't that the guy that came up with $5K DOGE stimulus checks? (that Musk mentioned). I haven't received mine yet ...

Fed July SLOOS Survey: Banks reported Weaker Demand for Most Loan Categories From the Federal Reserve: The July 2025 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices The July 2025 Senior Loan Officer Opini...

Fed July SLOOS Survey: Banks reported Weaker Demand for Most Loan Categories www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/08/fed-...

A real power move would be for Powell to stay at the Fed after his Chair term expires. His Fed governor term runs until January 2028.

How Much will the Fannie & Freddie Conforming Loan Limit Change for 2026? With house prices up low-single digits over the last year through mid-year, an interesting question is: How much will the Fannie & Freddie conforming loan limits (CLL) change for 2026?

How Much will the Fannie & Freddie Conforming Loan Limit Change for 2026? calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/how-much-w...

Light Vehicles Sales Increased to 16.41 million SAAR in July The BEA reported this morning that light vehicle sales were at 16.41 million in July on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR). Th...

Light Vehicles Sales Increased to 16.41 million SAAR in July www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/08/ligh...

Goldman: "Housing is likely to remain the weakest part of the economy. We expect it to decline at an 8% annualized pace in 2025H2 as both single- and multi-family homebuilding continue to slow"

Housing August 4th Weekly Update: Inventory up 0.6% Week-over-week; Down 10% from 2019 Levels Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 0.6% week-over-week. Inventory is now up 38.6% from the seasonal bottom in January....

Housing August 4th Weekly Update: Inventory up 0.6% Week-over-week; Down 10% from 2019 Levels www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/08/hous...

The Composition of the FOMC
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/08/the-...

IMPORTANT: It is critical that the Fed stay independent, data driven, and immune to political pressure.

This is also true for the Federal statistical agencies …

BLS Jobs Report Preview (May) A mild weakening in the cards?

Since we’re about 6 weeks away from the BLS preliminary benchmark announcement, a reshare of my estimate that it will subtract about 65K/month in employment growth from March 2024 through March 2025:

open.substack.com/pub/macromos...

Right now the current streak is 55 months ...

Every month I post the top "job streaks" in US history (number of consecutive months with positive employment). It appears the current streak will not survive the benchmark revision.

Goldman: “The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will publish a preliminary estimate of the benchmark revision to March 2025 nonfarm payrolls on September 9th. We estimate a downward revision on the order of 550-950k”

August 1, 2025 AMERICAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION Committee on Economic Statistics and Committee on Government Relations Statement from the American Economic Association on the Dismissal of the BLS Commissioner Leaders of the American Economic Association express their grave concern over the dismissal of the Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) earlier today. The independence of the federal statistical agencies is essential to the proper functioning of a modern economy. Accurate, timely, and impartial statistics are the foundation upon which households, businesses, and policymakers make critical decisions. Undermining the independence or credibility of these agencies threatens the integrity of the information that markets, institutions, and the public rely on every day. Measuring the vast and dynamic U.S. economy in real time is inherently challenging. It is standard practice for statistical estimates to be revised as more complete and higher-quality data become available. These revisions reflect the commitment of statistical agencies to accuracy, transparency, and methodological rigor-not failure or bias. The BLS has long had a well-deserved reputation for professional excellence and nonpartisan integrity. Safeguarding this tradition is vital for the continued health of the U.S. economy and public trust in our institutions. We call upon elected officials to respect and preserve the independence of the nation's statistical infrastructure. Lawrence Katz President, American Economic Association Katharine Abraham President-Elect, American Economic Association Karen Dynan Chair, American Economic Association Committee on Economic Statistics Kenneth Troske Chair, American Economic Association Committee on Government Relations

Statement from the largest economics association about the BLS firing

As context: AEA approximately never makes such public statements

This is a big deal

Dr. Kugler was appointed to fill the remainder of an unexpired term that ends in Jan 2026. So, she is just leaving a few months early (probably to be available at the start the coming school year).