Torres del Paine National Park
17.10.2025 11:34 โ ๐ 176 ๐ 5 ๐ฌ 4 ๐ 0@calculatedrisk.bsky.social
Author of Calculated Risk economics blog. https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/ Real Estate Newsletter at http://calculatedrisk.substack.com
Torres del Paine National Park
17.10.2025 11:34 โ ๐ 176 ๐ 5 ๐ฌ 4 ๐ 0Off-topic: Male vocalizing to find his mate (Patagonia)
17.10.2025 00:04 โ ๐ 57 ๐ 5 ๐ฌ 2 ๐ 3Goldman: โWe estimate that seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims declined to about 217k for the week ended October 11th, by combining the Department of Labor (DOL)โs pre-released seasonal factors with this afternoonโs release of state-level claims.โ
16.10.2025 22:39 โ ๐ 32 ๐ 6 ๐ฌ 4 ๐ 1September CPI report will be released on Friday, October 24 at 8:30AM ET.
Iโll be back early next week. Currently in Patagonia with a friend since High School.
Cape Horn. End of the World!
BofA: โNews broke yesterday that the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is calling furloughed workers to publish the September CPI report before month-end. One potential motivation behind this decision could be the Social Security cost of living adjustment, which is based on 3Q inflation data.โ
10.10.2025 09:28 โ ๐ 45 ๐ 18 ๐ฌ 3 ๐ 1Goldman: โWe estimate that seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims increased to about 235k for the week ended October 4th, by combining the Department of Labor (DOL)โs pre-released seasonal factors with this afternoonโs release of state-level claims.โ
10.10.2025 00:12 โ ๐ 88 ๐ 31 ๐ฌ 2 ๐ 2MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/10/mba-...
08.10.2025 15:09 โ ๐ 7 ๐ 4 ๐ฌ 0 ๐ 0Itโs a different index. This is CoreLogics own index
08.10.2025 01:01 โ ๐ 5 ๐ 0 ๐ฌ 0 ๐ 0Cotality (formerly CoreLogic) โYear-over-year price growth continues its downward trend, only rising 1.3% in August 2025. Monthly price increases were in negative territory (down 0.3%) between July and August 2025, following a 0.2% decline in July.โ
08.10.2025 00:13 โ ๐ 15 ๐ 2 ๐ฌ 3 ๐ 01st Look at Local Housing Markets in September calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/1st-look-a...
07.10.2025 12:19 โ ๐ 8 ๐ 3 ๐ฌ 0 ๐ 0Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/asking-ren...
06.10.2025 17:23 โ ๐ 13 ๐ 2 ๐ฌ 1 ๐ 0October ICE Mortgage Monitor: "Home Prices Firm" in September, Up 1.2% Year-over-year calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/october-ic...
06.10.2025 13:53 โ ๐ 9 ๐ 1 ๐ฌ 1 ๐ 1Housing October 6th Weekly Update: Inventory Increased 0.2% Week-over-week
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/10/hous...
AAR Rail Traffic in September: Intermodal and Carload Traffic Decreased YoY www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/10/aar-...
05.10.2025 13:06 โ ๐ 7 ๐ 1 ๐ฌ 0 ๐ 0Goldman: "Our ... inflation forecasting process relies almost entirely on private-sector data and ...has not been meaningfully impacted by the shutdown. Our preliminary estimate of September core CPI suggests that monthly inflation moderated in September: we forecast 0.26% vs. 0.35% in August."
04.10.2025 03:28 โ ๐ 25 ๐ 3 ๐ฌ 2 ๐ 0Q3 GDP Tracking: Flyin' Blind
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/10/q3-g...
ISMยฎ Services Index Decreased to 50% in September; Prices Paid Very High; Employment in Contraction for Fourth Consecutive Month
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/10/ism-...
Goldman on initial claims: โWe estimate that seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims ticked up to about 224k for the week ended September 27th, by combining the Department of Labor (DOL)โs pre-released seasonal factors with this eveningโs release of state-level claims.โ
03.10.2025 12:20 โ ๐ 53 ๐ 10 ๐ฌ 2 ๐ 1Maryland is just playing catch up!
03.10.2025 00:10 โ ๐ 6 ๐ 1 ๐ฌ 0 ๐ 0Yes. Thanks. And that does show inventory up sharply in MD.
Of course the worst problems are in Florida and Texas (maybe not YoY, but months-of-supply)
I think Lance uses Zillow, and that shows total inventory up 20% (about average for Nation). Maybe he uses some other data?
02.10.2025 23:49 โ ๐ 0 ๐ 0 ๐ฌ 1 ๐ 0Seems incorrect. active inventory is down slightly YoY in Maryland according to the Maryland Realtors.
www.mdrealtor.org/News-and-Eve...
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 4.2% Year-over-year www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/10/hote...
02.10.2025 17:42 โ ๐ 11 ๐ 6 ๐ฌ 1 ๐ 0Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.7% Below 2022 Peak
Price-to-rent index is 10.0% below 2022 peak
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/inflation-...
Light Vehicle Sales Increased to 16.4 Million SAAR in September
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/10/ligh...
expiring EV credit boosted sales.
30 Worst Performing CBSAs
01.10.2025 16:05 โ ๐ 12 ๐ 3 ๐ฌ 4 ๐ 1Freddie Mac House Price Index Up 1.6% Year-over-Year
Punta Gorda House Prices Down almost 20% from Peak
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/freddie-ma...
ISMยฎ Manufacturing index at 49.1% in September www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/10/ism-...
The ISM manufacturing index indicated contraction. The PMIยฎ was at 49.1% in September, up from 48.7% in August. The employment index was at 45.3%, up from 43.8% the previous month.
ADP: Private Employment Decreased 32,000 in September www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/10/adp-...
01.10.2025 12:25 โ ๐ 84 ๐ 25 ๐ฌ 6 ๐ 2