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Bill McBride

@calculatedrisk.bsky.social

Author of Calculated Risk economics blog. https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/ Real Estate Newsletter at http://calculatedrisk.substack.com

12,372 Followers  |  304 Following  |  2,224 Posts  |  Joined: 11.10.2023  |  1.8991

Latest posts by calculatedrisk.bsky.social on Bluesky

Goldman “We estimate that seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims decreased to about 218k for the week ended October 25th by combining the Department of Labor (DOL)’s pre-released seasonal factors with this afternoon’s release of state-level claims.”

30.10.2025 22:23 — 👍 12    🔁 1    💬 0    📌 1
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Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 3.6% Year-over-year Hotel occupancy was weak over the summer months, due to less international tourism.  The fall months are mostly domestic travel and occupanc...

Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 3.6% Year-over-year
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/10/hote...

The hotel industry is blaming policy uncertain and administration rhetoric for the 2025 slump

30.10.2025 18:27 — 👍 21    🔁 5    💬 1    📌 2
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Las Vegas in September: Visitor Traffic Down 9% YoY From the Las Vegas Visitor Authority: September 2025 Las Vegas Visitor Statistics Driven largely by slower midweek volumes, the destination...

Las Vegas in September: Visitor Traffic Down 9% YoY
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/10/las-...

30.10.2025 15:47 — 👍 23    🔁 15    💬 2    📌 2
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Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.8% Below 2022 Peak Price-to-rent index is 10.2% below 2022 peak

Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.8% Below 2022 Peak
Price-to-rent index is 10.2% below 2022 peak
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/inflation-...

30.10.2025 12:53 — 👍 12    🔁 2    💬 0    📌 0

BofA: "We remain comfortable with our view that the Fed will not cut rates again under Chair Powell. But it's clear that, barring a clear signal in either direction from the data, the December decision will be even more contentious than October."

29.10.2025 22:34 — 👍 18    🔁 4    💬 0    📌 0
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www.mortgagenewsdaily.com

29.10.2025 20:40 — 👍 19    🔁 5    💬 2    📌 0

Odds of Dec rate cut dropping ...

29.10.2025 18:46 — 👍 14    🔁 2    💬 1    📌 0

*POWELL: RATE CUT IN DECEMBER IS 'FAR FROM' FOREGONE CONCLUSION

and scene

29.10.2025 18:37 — 👍 38    🔁 7    💬 5    📌 3
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Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement Available indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace. Job gains have slowed this year, and the unemployment rate has edged

25 bps cut
www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/p...

Dissents in both directions!

29.10.2025 18:02 — 👍 16    🔁 4    💬 0    📌 0
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Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Delinquency Rate Increased in September Multi-Family Delinquency Rate Highest Since Housing Bust (ex-pandemic)

Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Delinquency Rate Increased in September
Multi-Family Delinquency Rate Highest Since Housing Bust (ex-pandemic) calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/fannie-and...

29.10.2025 14:51 — 👍 8    🔁 5    💬 0    📌 1
NAR: Pending Home Sales Unchanged in September; Down 0.9% YoY From the NAR: NAR Pending Home Sales Report Shows No Change in September P ending home sales in September showed no change from the prior m...

NAR: Pending Home Sales Unchanged in September; Down 0.9% YoY
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/10/nar-...

29.10.2025 14:06 — 👍 8    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
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MBA:Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications increased 7.1 percent from one week earlier, ...

MBA:Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest Weekly Survey
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/10/mbam...

29.10.2025 11:46 — 👍 9    🔁 1    💬 0    📌 0
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Another 20" to 30" of rain forecast for Jamaica mountains.

28.10.2025 18:06 — 👍 20    🔁 4    💬 1    📌 1
Accommodation
The government shutdown and economic malaise are taking a toll on hotel and travel demand.
Administrative and support services
It feels impossible to predict what the hiring and employment market will be in six months. This year has been the most challenging in 15 years of search and staffing. Candidates have failed background checks. Employers have delayed hiring, candidates have accepted counter offers, others have continued interviewing after accepting a new role. These events used to be uncommon and rare. Now they're happening on a regular basis. Revenue swings month to month are drastic. We are trying to budget and forecast, but it is impossible, and I'm on the edge of laying off an employee now. Business has felt recessionary for over a year—no wonder we knew the jobs numbers were off and kept saying there was no way they were as good as reported, and we were correct. These are very tough times for small and midsized businesses.
The level of uncertainty has increased in the face of higher interest rates and borrowing costs. Layoffs in the energy sector are just now being felt, and the federal shutdown will have a compounding impact.
The government shutdown [is an issue impacting our business].
Most of our customers are federal agencies. If there is a shutdown, our business suffers.
Ambulatory health care services
We are seeing major price escalation resistance.
There are numerous factors affecting our outlook and current performance. A general downturn in the economy and economic outlook coupled with increased layoffs and significant increases in prices for day-to-day commodities have reduced demand for those seeking our pediatric urgent care services. Healthcare fatigue is also a factor post-COVID. Couple that with the frankly baseless guidance that the Department of Health and Human Services is providing, there is also a lot of confusion among potential patients of ours of sound medical judgement.
With continued angst over secured overnight fin…

Accommodation The government shutdown and economic malaise are taking a toll on hotel and travel demand. Administrative and support services It feels impossible to predict what the hiring and employment market will be in six months. This year has been the most challenging in 15 years of search and staffing. Candidates have failed background checks. Employers have delayed hiring, candidates have accepted counter offers, others have continued interviewing after accepting a new role. These events used to be uncommon and rare. Now they're happening on a regular basis. Revenue swings month to month are drastic. We are trying to budget and forecast, but it is impossible, and I'm on the edge of laying off an employee now. Business has felt recessionary for over a year—no wonder we knew the jobs numbers were off and kept saying there was no way they were as good as reported, and we were correct. These are very tough times for small and midsized businesses. The level of uncertainty has increased in the face of higher interest rates and borrowing costs. Layoffs in the energy sector are just now being felt, and the federal shutdown will have a compounding impact. The government shutdown [is an issue impacting our business]. Most of our customers are federal agencies. If there is a shutdown, our business suffers. Ambulatory health care services We are seeing major price escalation resistance. There are numerous factors affecting our outlook and current performance. A general downturn in the economy and economic outlook coupled with increased layoffs and significant increases in prices for day-to-day commodities have reduced demand for those seeking our pediatric urgent care services. Healthcare fatigue is also a factor post-COVID. Couple that with the frankly baseless guidance that the Department of Health and Human Services is providing, there is also a lot of confusion among potential patients of ours of sound medical judgement. With continued angst over secured overnight fin…

Educational services
Uncertainty about visa approval rates and H1-B visa fees will have a potentially significant negative impact.
Personal and laundry services
I am concerned about the government shutdown.
Pipeline transportation
Lower oil prices impact producer activity and uncertainty.
Professional, scientific and technical services
We're seeing significant uncertainty among our oil and gas service company clients. Commodity prices are down, and there is no real cause to anticipate an upturn in drilling activities.
The residential market has continued its decline due to the uncertainty of the economy. Homebuilders are having a difficult time selling homes, even with the incentives they are offering, and existing homes are just sitting. The commercial market is a little better but is being held up by energy and data center transactions. We need a major adjustment in the pricing of homes or a significant reduction in the interest rate to get this market moving again.
Interest rates are still too high. Reduction in regulations is improving optimism. The Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins (GENIUS) Act will open new opportunities.
We have seen an upturn in work flowing from clients in October in consulting engineering.
All of our customers are scaling back on technology spending.
I feel like our clients are more apprehensive. We are writing a lot of proposals, but they are just sitting. Projects are still being planned, but the execution is being delayed.
I work globally with international companies, so uncertainty is inherently high, and it will likely increase in the coming months. Four new governments in Latin America will be decided within the next six months, and such political transitions always contribute to greater economic and business uncertainty.
Commodity prices adversely affecting upstream oil and gas companies coupled with potential increased costs from renewed China tariffs creates an uncertain or negative outlook.
We are …

Educational services Uncertainty about visa approval rates and H1-B visa fees will have a potentially significant negative impact. Personal and laundry services I am concerned about the government shutdown. Pipeline transportation Lower oil prices impact producer activity and uncertainty. Professional, scientific and technical services We're seeing significant uncertainty among our oil and gas service company clients. Commodity prices are down, and there is no real cause to anticipate an upturn in drilling activities. The residential market has continued its decline due to the uncertainty of the economy. Homebuilders are having a difficult time selling homes, even with the incentives they are offering, and existing homes are just sitting. The commercial market is a little better but is being held up by energy and data center transactions. We need a major adjustment in the pricing of homes or a significant reduction in the interest rate to get this market moving again. Interest rates are still too high. Reduction in regulations is improving optimism. The Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins (GENIUS) Act will open new opportunities. We have seen an upturn in work flowing from clients in October in consulting engineering. All of our customers are scaling back on technology spending. I feel like our clients are more apprehensive. We are writing a lot of proposals, but they are just sitting. Projects are still being planned, but the execution is being delayed. I work globally with international companies, so uncertainty is inherently high, and it will likely increase in the coming months. Four new governments in Latin America will be decided within the next six months, and such political transitions always contribute to greater economic and business uncertainty. Commodity prices adversely affecting upstream oil and gas companies coupled with potential increased costs from renewed China tariffs creates an uncertain or negative outlook. We are …

Publishing industries (except internet)
There is significant inflation in regular goods prices.
We continue to be concerned about compounding effects of tariffs, government shutdown, reduced federal spending, wavering consumer confidence and the levels of credit card usage and delinquency (which we expect to increase), as well as the generally antibusiness policies being championed by Republican lawmakers and the Trump administration.
Real estate
The sentiment we see from apartment residents, owners, vendors, employees and others is neither optimism nor excessive worry. Folks are getting by OK, reallocating spending to compensate for high food prices, and they seem resigned to their fate. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) continues to terrify immigrants, and they are keeping their heads down. Few people are moving, changing jobs or expecting more. The economy feels like it's in the doldrums, and all the outrageous politics just feels like noise. Our company is doing well enough to throw a couple of big events and make improvements to properties we own. Being conservative, focusing on fundamentals and conserving cash have paid off for us. Others see us doing well, so more prospects are coming our way.
We are always hopeful things are going to move forward and upward. Our goal is to survive the next six months.
Rental and leasing services
I don't know that any geopolitical or political conditions have changed our business outlook. The fourth quarter is typically when we do 27 percent to 29 percent of our volume. The first two quarters of the year are typically slow due to weather and manufacturers trying to manage their budgets. Tax-incentive buying pulls purchases ahead into fourth quarter 2025.
Repair and maintenance
We are a naturally seasonal business. Our outlook for the future is bright.
Securities, commodity contracts and other financial investments and related activities
Uncertainty remains uncertain.
I wish we would get clarity on tariffs. We have bee…

Publishing industries (except internet) There is significant inflation in regular goods prices. We continue to be concerned about compounding effects of tariffs, government shutdown, reduced federal spending, wavering consumer confidence and the levels of credit card usage and delinquency (which we expect to increase), as well as the generally antibusiness policies being championed by Republican lawmakers and the Trump administration. Real estate The sentiment we see from apartment residents, owners, vendors, employees and others is neither optimism nor excessive worry. Folks are getting by OK, reallocating spending to compensate for high food prices, and they seem resigned to their fate. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) continues to terrify immigrants, and they are keeping their heads down. Few people are moving, changing jobs or expecting more. The economy feels like it's in the doldrums, and all the outrageous politics just feels like noise. Our company is doing well enough to throw a couple of big events and make improvements to properties we own. Being conservative, focusing on fundamentals and conserving cash have paid off for us. Others see us doing well, so more prospects are coming our way. We are always hopeful things are going to move forward and upward. Our goal is to survive the next six months. Rental and leasing services I don't know that any geopolitical or political conditions have changed our business outlook. The fourth quarter is typically when we do 27 percent to 29 percent of our volume. The first two quarters of the year are typically slow due to weather and manufacturers trying to manage their budgets. Tax-incentive buying pulls purchases ahead into fourth quarter 2025. Repair and maintenance We are a naturally seasonal business. Our outlook for the future is bright. Securities, commodity contracts and other financial investments and related activities Uncertainty remains uncertain. I wish we would get clarity on tariffs. We have bee…

Specialty trade contractors
Volatility—including interest rates, stock market fluctuations, geopolitical issues and the government shutdown—is creating poor confidence.
Support activities for transportation
With the current administration taking meaningful action to address foreign labor issues, the outlook for the trucking and logistics industry has improved considerably. The decline faced in recent years has been attributable to violations of federal laws, most notably allowing those not legally authorized and without English proficiency to saturate the market and to violate cabotage restrictions. We are encouraged by the renewed emphasis on enforcement and compliance. As these measures take effect and below-market labor practices are curtailed, American motor carriers will once again be able to begin breaking even and then to profit.
Telecommunications
Too much funding (private equity combined with the Broadband Equity, Access and Deployment program) is flowing into the broadband industry as evident by the number of broadband providers in any given area. While it has naturally increased competition, resulting in lower pricing, it is also driving irrational investment decisions. These decisions will have consequences once the broadband market begins a correction in the next three to five years.
Truck transportation
Our business has died.
Utilities
I feel better about business activity, but the threatened tariffs do not help with the business situation.
Warehousing and storage
General economic conditions appear to be worsening, though it's hard to put a finger on exactly where or why. We're working through 2026 budget and are expecting revenue to either stay flat or dip. We are eliminating a small number of heads, roughly 4 percent of our workforce. We expect inflation to continue to impact the cost to provide services and will be adjusting revenue in response.

Specialty trade contractors Volatility—including interest rates, stock market fluctuations, geopolitical issues and the government shutdown—is creating poor confidence. Support activities for transportation With the current administration taking meaningful action to address foreign labor issues, the outlook for the trucking and logistics industry has improved considerably. The decline faced in recent years has been attributable to violations of federal laws, most notably allowing those not legally authorized and without English proficiency to saturate the market and to violate cabotage restrictions. We are encouraged by the renewed emphasis on enforcement and compliance. As these measures take effect and below-market labor practices are curtailed, American motor carriers will once again be able to begin breaking even and then to profit. Telecommunications Too much funding (private equity combined with the Broadband Equity, Access and Deployment program) is flowing into the broadband industry as evident by the number of broadband providers in any given area. While it has naturally increased competition, resulting in lower pricing, it is also driving irrational investment decisions. These decisions will have consequences once the broadband market begins a correction in the next three to five years. Truck transportation Our business has died. Utilities I feel better about business activity, but the threatened tariffs do not help with the business situation. Warehousing and storage General economic conditions appear to be worsening, though it's hard to put a finger on exactly where or why. We're working through 2026 budget and are expecting revenue to either stay flat or dip. We are eliminating a small number of heads, roughly 4 percent of our workforce. We expect inflation to continue to impact the cost to provide services and will be adjusting revenue in response.

Dallas Fed services comments are LIT this month

"generally antibusiness policies being championed by Republican lawmakers and the Trump administration"

www.dallasfed.org/research/sur...

28.10.2025 16:09 — 👍 354    🔁 102    💬 12    📌 18
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Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 1.5% year-over-year in August FHFA House Prices up 2.3% YoY in August

Newsletter: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 1.5% year-over-year in August
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/case-shill...

28.10.2025 14:05 — 👍 10    🔁 1    💬 0    📌 0
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Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 1.5% year-over-year in August S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for August ("August" is a 3-month average of June, July and August closing prices)...

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 1.5% year-over-year in August
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/10/case...

28.10.2025 13:13 — 👍 5    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
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Air traffic control staffing problems spiked over the weekend, raising concerns about growing disruption | CNN Air traffic controller staffing shortages worsened over the weekend as the nation’s government shutdown hit its fourth week, leading to delays and anxiety, and experts say it won’t get better until ai...

Air traffic control staffing problems spiked over the weekend, raising concerns about growing disruption www.cnn.com/2025/10/27/u...

27.10.2025 19:48 — 👍 17    🔁 3    💬 1    📌 0

Home sales: October closings. There might be some impact on closings in October due to the shutdown. Government flood insurance isn't available. Some programs FHA, VA might see delays. The IRS automated tax transcript service is still working, but not taking phone calls. Fannie & Freddie OK.

27.10.2025 19:39 — 👍 13    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0

The forecasts are for 30" to 40" of rain in the mountains of Jamaica over next few days. The flooding will be horrendous.

27.10.2025 18:56 — 👍 23    🔁 6    💬 0    📌 1
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October Forecast: Vehicle Sales Down Sharply Due to Decline in EV Sales From J.D. Power: October New-Vehicle Sales Decline as EV Pull-Ahead Reverses; EV Share Falls to 5.3% Following Incentive Expiration Brief e...

October Forecast: Vehicle Sales Down Sharply Due to Decline in EV Sales
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/10/octo...

27.10.2025 18:53 — 👍 16    🔁 2    💬 0    📌 0
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Jamaica getting hammered by Melissa

27.10.2025 18:36 — 👍 22    🔁 2    💬 3    📌 1
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Final Look at Housing Markets in September and a Look Ahead to October Sales After the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) releases the monthly existing home sales report, I pick up additional local market data that is reported after the NAR.

Final Look at Housing Markets in September and a Look Ahead to October Sales calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/final-look...

27.10.2025 15:41 — 👍 9    🔁 2    💬 0    📌 0
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Housing October 27th Weekly Update: Inventory Up 1.0% Week-over-week, New High for 2025 Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 1.0% week-over-week.  Inventory usually starts to decline in the fall and then decl...

Housing October 27th Weekly Update: Inventory Up 1.0% Week-over-week, New High for 2025
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/10/hous...

27.10.2025 13:40 — 👍 10    🔁 2    💬 0    📌 1
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CPI data collection issues continued in September. A record 40% of missing data was subject to "different cell" imputation, meaning the data comes from a different region.
Please see follow up tweets for some clarification of what this does and doesn't mean. #NumbersDay

24.10.2025 15:24 — 👍 181    🔁 59    💬 7    📌 10
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Cleveland Fed: Median CPI increased 0.2% and Trimmed-mean CPI increased 0.2% in September The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consum...

Cleveland Fed: Median CPI increased 0.2% and Trimmed-mean CPI increased 0.2% in September
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/10/clev...

24.10.2025 17:09 — 👍 8    🔁 2    💬 0    📌 0

S&P Mfg PMI: "business confidence in the outlook for the coming year has deteriorated further and is at one of the lowest levels seen over the past three years as companies worry about the impact of policies, most notably tariffs.”

24.10.2025 16:24 — 👍 19    🔁 6    💬 1    📌 0

They are considering a special question on the impact the immigration policy in the next quarterly survey. The shared with me that they heard tenants are struggling financially.
2/2

24.10.2025 14:58 — 👍 10    🔁 2    💬 0    📌 0

I spoke with a senior analyst at the NMHC. In this survey they didn’t ask specifically about the impact of immigration policy, however they heard policy is negatively impacting rents & vacancies in South Florida.
1/2

24.10.2025 14:55 — 👍 17    🔁 4    💬 2    📌 0

CoStar (private data they've kindly provided to me for years).

24.10.2025 14:38 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
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NMHC on Apartments: Market conditions "Soften" in Q3 Leading indicator for Rents and Apartment Vacancies Negative in Q3

NMHC on Apartments: Market conditions "Soften" in Q3 calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/nmhc-on-ap...

24.10.2025 14:37 — 👍 8    🔁 1    💬 0    📌 1

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