Bill McBride

Torres del Paine National Park

Off-topic: Male vocalizing to find his mate (Patagonia)

Goldman: “We estimate that seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims declined to about 217k for the week ended October 11th, by combining the Department of Labor (DOL)’s pre-released seasonal factors with this afternoon’s release of state-level claims.”

September CPI report will be released on Friday, October 24 at 8:30AM ET.

I’ll be back early next week. Currently in Patagonia with a friend since High School.

Cape Horn. End of the World!

BofA: “News broke yesterday that the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is calling furloughed workers to publish the September CPI report before month-end. One potential motivation behind this decision could be the Social Security cost of living adjustment, which is based on 3Q inflation data.”

Goldman: “We estimate that seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims increased to about 235k for the week ended October 4th, by combining the Department of Labor (DOL)’s pre-released seasonal factors with this afternoon’s release of state-level claims.”

MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/10/mba-...

It’s a different index. This is CoreLogics own index

tracking.us.nylas.com/l/960dcbfa3c...

Cotality (formerly CoreLogic) “Year-over-year price growth continues its downward trend, only rising 1.3% in August 2025. Monthly price increases were in negative territory (down 0.3%) between July and August 2025, following a 0.2% decline in July.”

1st Look at Local Housing Markets in September Tracking local data gives an early look at what happened the previous month and also reveals regional differences in both sales and inventory.

1st Look at Local Housing Markets in September calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/1st-look-a...

Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year Another monthly update on rents.

Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/asking-ren...

October ICE Mortgage Monitor: "Home Prices Firm" in September, Up 1.2% Year-over-year Here is the ICE October Mortgage Monitor report (pdf).

October ICE Mortgage Monitor: "Home Prices Firm" in September, Up 1.2% Year-over-year calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/october-ic...

Housing October 6th Weekly Update: Inventory Increased 0.2% Week-over-week Altos reports that active single-family inventory increased 0.2% week-over-week.  Inventory usually starts to decline in the fall and then d...

Housing October 6th Weekly Update: Inventory Increased 0.2% Week-over-week
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/10/hous...

AAR Rail Traffic in September: Intermodal and Carload Traffic Decreased YoY From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) AAR Data Center . Graph and excerpts reprinted with permission . The AAR Freight Rail Ind...

AAR Rail Traffic in September: Intermodal and Carload Traffic Decreased YoY www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/10/aar-...

Goldman: "Our ... inflation forecasting process relies almost entirely on private-sector data and ...has not been meaningfully impacted by the shutdown. Our preliminary estimate of September core CPI suggests that monthly inflation moderated in September: we forecast 0.26% vs. 0.35% in August."

Q3 GDP Tracking: Flyin' Blind From BofA: Since our last weekly publication, 3Q GDP tracking increased to 2.8% q/q saar from 2.6% after 2Q GDP came in at 3.8% in the thir...

Q3 GDP Tracking: Flyin' Blind
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/10/q3-g...

ISM® Services Index Decreased to 50% in September; Prices Paid Very High; Employment in Contraction for Fourth Consecutive Month
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/10/ism-...

Goldman on initial claims: “We estimate that seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims ticked up to about 224k for the week ended September 27th, by combining the Department of Labor (DOL)’s pre-released seasonal factors with this evening’s release of state-level claims.”

Maryland is just playing catch up!

Yes. Thanks. And that does show inventory up sharply in MD.

Of course the worst problems are in Florida and Texas (maybe not YoY, but months-of-supply)

I think Lance uses Zillow, and that shows total inventory up 20% (about average for Nation). Maybe he uses some other data?

Seems incorrect. active inventory is down slightly YoY in Maryland according to the Maryland Realtors.
www.mdrealtor.org/News-and-Eve...

Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 4.2% Year-over-year Hotel occupancy was weak over the summer months, due to less international tourism.  The fall months are mostly domestic travel and occupanc...

Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 4.2% Year-over-year www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/10/hote...

Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.7% Below 2022 Peak Price-to-rent index is 10.0% below 2022 peak

Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.7% Below 2022 Peak
Price-to-rent index is 10.0% below 2022 peak
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/inflation-...

Light Vehicle Sales Increased to 16.4 Million SAAR in September Note: Heavy truck sales will not be available from the BEA during the shutdown. Omida reported that light vehicle sales were at 16.4 milli...

Light Vehicle Sales Increased to 16.4 Million SAAR in September
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/10/ligh...

expiring EV credit boosted sales.

30 Worst Performing CBSAs

Freddie Mac House Price Index Up 1.6% Year-over-Year Punta Gorda House Prices Down almost 20% from Peak

Freddie Mac House Price Index Up 1.6% Year-over-Year
Punta Gorda House Prices Down almost 20% from Peak
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/freddie-ma...

ISM® Manufacturing index at 49.1% in September www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/10/ism-...

The ISM manufacturing index indicated contraction. The PMI® was at 49.1% in September, up from 48.7% in August. The employment index was at 45.3%, up from 43.8% the previous month.

ADP: Private Employment Decreased 32,000 in September www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/10/adp-...