Bill McBride

AAR: "U.S. rail intermodal shipments fell 3.5% in January, their fifth straight year‑over‑year decrease as weaker port activity, softer goods demand, and ample trucking capacity continued to weigh on intermodal volumes."

Economic Weekly February 6, 2026 This weekly email has three parts: the Schedule of economic data for the following week, a Review of data for the previous week, and a Commentary on a current topic.

Economic Weekly February 6, 2026
economicweekly.substack.com/p/economic-w...

The key reports this week are the January employment report (delayed from last week), December retail sales (still catching up), January consumer price index and January existing home sales.

Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index: January 2026 Trends - Cox Automotive Inc. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) is a trusted benchmark for tracking wholesale used-vehicle prices in the U.S., which helps dealers and analysts gauge market shifts and anticipate retail t...

The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) rose to 210.5, reflecting a 2.4% increase for wholesale used-vehicle prices (adjusted for mix, mileage, and seasonality) compared to January 2025. www.coxautoinc.com/insights-hub...

I'm surprised the consensus for existing home sales in January is for a solid year-over-year gain (around +4%). With the NAR reporting much earlier each month this year, it is hard to gather enough local data to know for sure - but I think sales were down YoY.

1st Look at Local Housing Markets in January Most of the areas hit hard by “Winter Storm Fern” have not reported yet, and it is likely some closings were delayed in these areas, so seasonally adjusted existing home sales in January could be weak...

1st Look at Local Housing Markets in January
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/1st-look-a...
Most of the areas hit hard by “Winter Storm Fern” have not reported yet ... so seasonally adjusted existing home sales in January could be weaker than this early data suggests.

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I’m referring to sales. There are different stakeholders in the market - buyers, sellers, etc. Sales are important for people whose income is related to the number of transactions, like real estate agents, escrow officers, appraisers, mortgage brokers, and more.

The January housing numbers are abysmal. I’ll have more tomorrow, but it wasn’t all due to the severe winter storm.

Bitcoin still ~$67,000 above eventual price.

Job Openings down 13% YoY
www.bls.gov/news.release...

"In the week ending January 31, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 231,000, an increase of
22,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 209,000. The 4-week moving average was 212,250, an increase of
6,000 from the previous week's unrevised average of 206,250."

Lawler: Update on GSEs and Early Read on Bank Response Here is some data and comments from housing economist Tom Lawler as a follow up to his note: Lawler: Some Comments About Upcoming GSE MBS Purchases and an Update on Mortgage/MBS Yields and Spreads

Lawler: Update on GSEs and Early Read on Bank Response
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/lawler-upd...

This is related to the announcement that the GSEs would buy $200 billion of MBS.

Schedule update:

Thursday, February 05, 2026 10:00 AM Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for December 2025

Wednesday, February 11, 2026 08:30 AM Employment Situation for January 2026

January Vehicle Sales down 6.7% MoM (SA). Weakest since supply chain issues in 2022 (likely impacted by weather).

Bankruptcy Filings Rise 11 Percent www.uscourts.gov/data-news/ju...

Goldman: "We do not place much weight on the ADP miss because of ADP’s limited correlation with BLS private payrolls over the last few years. We left our forecast for January nonfarm payroll growth unchanged at +45k, below consensus of +71k."

MBA: "The seasonally adjusted Purchase
Index decreased 14 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 2 percent
compared with the previous week and was 4 percent higher than the same week one year ago."

John Burns: Multifamily at an inflection point: 2026 consequences and opportunities

“Struggling properties: Expect forced sales and meaningful equity losses among newer buyers and syndicators from the last cycle, particularly concentrated in assets with weak performance …”

Cotality: www.cotality.com/insights/art...

www.mortgagenewsdaily.com

Bitcoin still ~$75,000 above eventual price.

Census released this even with the shutdown - although they are missing some data.

HVS: Rental Vacancy Rates increases to 7.2% in Q4
www.census.gov/housing/hvs/...

Asking Rents Decline Year-over-year Another monthly update on rents.

Asking Rents Decline Year-over-year
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/asking-ren...

How Anchored Are Short-Run Inflation Expectations Today? A Look at What Consumers and Forecasters Are Telling Us Policymakers emphasize the importance of “well-anchored” inflation expectations to ensure that price- and wage-setting behavior does not become entrenched in a high-inflation cycle, helping central ba...

Cleveland Fed: "there has been a notable deterioration in consumers’ inflation expectations’ anchoring in 2025 comparable to that in the late 1970s."
www.clevelandfed.org/publications...

Just got confirmation from BLS: "The Employment Situation release for January 2026 will not be released as scheduled on Friday, February 6, 2026. The release will be rescheduled upon the resumption of government funding." #EconSky

Final Look at Housing Markets in December and a Look Ahead to January Sales Altos: Active single-family inventory was down 0.2% week-over-week

Final Look at Housing Markets in December and a Look Ahead to January Sales
Altos: Active single-family inventory was down 0.2% week-over-week
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/final-look...

This is one way I’ve been thinking about the market outlook this year (some narrative tailwinds early that shift to headwinds around spring), and Claude did a pretty decent job of turning it into a visual:

Economic Weekly January 30, 2026 This weekly email has three parts: the Schedule of economic data for the following week, a Review of data for the previous week, and a Commentary on a current topic.

Economic Weekly January 30, 2026
economicweekly.substack.com/p/economic-w...

In the September 2006 Fed transcripts, Fed Chair nominee Keven Warsh said "Capital markets are probably more profitable and more robust at this moment... than they have perhaps ever been."

Oops!