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Bill McBride

@calculatedrisk.bsky.social

Author of Calculated Risk economics blog. https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/ Real Estate Newsletter at http://calculatedrisk.substack.com

11,859 Followers  |  304 Following  |  2,180 Posts  |  Joined: 11.10.2023  |  1.8951

Latest posts by calculatedrisk.bsky.social on Bluesky

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Torres del Paine National Park

17.10.2025 11:34 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 176    ๐Ÿ” 5    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 4    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Off-topic: Male vocalizing to find his mate (Patagonia)

17.10.2025 00:04 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 57    ๐Ÿ” 5    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 2    ๐Ÿ“Œ 3

Goldman: โ€œWe estimate that seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims declined to about 217k for the week ended October 11th, by combining the Department of Labor (DOL)โ€™s pre-released seasonal factors with this afternoonโ€™s release of state-level claims.โ€

16.10.2025 22:39 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 32    ๐Ÿ” 6    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 4    ๐Ÿ“Œ 1
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September CPI report will be released on Friday, October 24 at 8:30AM ET.

Iโ€™ll be back early next week. Currently in Patagonia with a friend since High School.

Cape Horn. End of the World!

16.10.2025 13:48 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 67    ๐Ÿ” 3    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 6    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

BofA: โ€œNews broke yesterday that the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is calling furloughed workers to publish the September CPI report before month-end. One potential motivation behind this decision could be the Social Security cost of living adjustment, which is based on 3Q inflation data.โ€

10.10.2025 09:28 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 45    ๐Ÿ” 18    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 3    ๐Ÿ“Œ 1

Goldman: โ€œWe estimate that seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims increased to about 235k for the week ended October 4th, by combining the Department of Labor (DOL)โ€™s pre-released seasonal factors with this afternoonโ€™s release of state-level claims.โ€

10.10.2025 00:12 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 88    ๐Ÿ” 31    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 2    ๐Ÿ“Œ 2
MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 4.7 percent from one week earlier,...

MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/10/mba-...

08.10.2025 15:09 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 7    ๐Ÿ” 4    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Itโ€™s a different index. This is CoreLogics own index

08.10.2025 01:01 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 5    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
US home price insights โ€” October 2025 Year-over-year price growth continues it's downward trajectory with negative home price growth is mainly concentrated in Florida. | Cotality

tracking.us.nylas.com/l/960dcbfa3c...

08.10.2025 00:56 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 5    ๐Ÿ” 1    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Cotality (formerly CoreLogic) โ€œYear-over-year price growth continues its downward trend, only rising 1.3% in August 2025. Monthly price increases were in negative territory (down 0.3%) between July and August 2025, following a 0.2% decline in July.โ€

08.10.2025 00:13 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 15    ๐Ÿ” 2    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 3    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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1st Look at Local Housing Markets in September Tracking local data gives an early look at what happened the previous month and also reveals regional differences in both sales and inventory.

1st Look at Local Housing Markets in September calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/1st-look-a...

07.10.2025 12:19 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 8    ๐Ÿ” 3    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year Another monthly update on rents.

Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/asking-ren...

06.10.2025 17:23 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 13    ๐Ÿ” 2    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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October ICE Mortgage Monitor: "Home Prices Firm" in September, Up 1.2% Year-over-year Here is the ICE October Mortgage Monitor report (pdf).

October ICE Mortgage Monitor: "Home Prices Firm" in September, Up 1.2% Year-over-year calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/october-ic...

06.10.2025 13:53 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 9    ๐Ÿ” 1    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 1
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Housing October 6th Weekly Update: Inventory Increased 0.2% Week-over-week Altos reports that active single-family inventory increased 0.2% week-over-week.ย  Inventory usually starts to decline in the fall and then d...

Housing October 6th Weekly Update: Inventory Increased 0.2% Week-over-week
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/10/hous...

06.10.2025 12:42 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 7    ๐Ÿ” 2    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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AAR Rail Traffic in September: Intermodal and Carload Traffic Decreased YoY From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) AAR Data Center . Graph and excerpts reprinted with permission . The AAR Freight Rail Ind...

AAR Rail Traffic in September: Intermodal and Carload Traffic Decreased YoY www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/10/aar-...

05.10.2025 13:06 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 7    ๐Ÿ” 1    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Goldman: "Our ... inflation forecasting process relies almost entirely on private-sector data and ...has not been meaningfully impacted by the shutdown. Our preliminary estimate of September core CPI suggests that monthly inflation moderated in September: we forecast 0.26% vs. 0.35% in August."

04.10.2025 03:28 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 25    ๐Ÿ” 3    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 2    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Q3 GDP Tracking: Flyin' Blind From BofA: Since our last weekly publication, 3Q GDP tracking increased to 2.8% q/q saar from 2.6% after 2Q GDP came in at 3.8% in the thir...

Q3 GDP Tracking: Flyin' Blind
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/10/q3-g...

03.10.2025 17:18 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 16    ๐Ÿ” 4    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

ISMยฎ Services Index Decreased to 50% in September; Prices Paid Very High; Employment in Contraction for Fourth Consecutive Month
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/10/ism-...

03.10.2025 14:08 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 10    ๐Ÿ” 3    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Goldman on initial claims: โ€œWe estimate that seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims ticked up to about 224k for the week ended September 27th, by combining the Department of Labor (DOL)โ€™s pre-released seasonal factors with this eveningโ€™s release of state-level claims.โ€

03.10.2025 12:20 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 53    ๐Ÿ” 10    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 2    ๐Ÿ“Œ 1
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Maryland is just playing catch up!

03.10.2025 00:10 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 6    ๐Ÿ” 1    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Yes. Thanks. And that does show inventory up sharply in MD.

Of course the worst problems are in Florida and Texas (maybe not YoY, but months-of-supply)

03.10.2025 00:07 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 3    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

I think Lance uses Zillow, and that shows total inventory up 20% (about average for Nation). Maybe he uses some other data?

02.10.2025 23:49 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 0    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
Housing Statistics Maryland Housing Statistics

Seems incorrect. active inventory is down slightly YoY in Maryland according to the Maryland Realtors.
www.mdrealtor.org/News-and-Eve...

02.10.2025 23:30 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 5    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 4.2% Year-over-year Hotel occupancy was weak over the summer months, due to less international tourism.ย  The fall months are mostly domestic travel and occupanc...

Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 4.2% Year-over-year www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/10/hote...

02.10.2025 17:42 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 11    ๐Ÿ” 6    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.7% Below 2022 Peak Price-to-rent index is 10.0% below 2022 peak

Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.7% Below 2022 Peak
Price-to-rent index is 10.0% below 2022 peak
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/inflation-...

02.10.2025 14:58 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 8    ๐Ÿ” 3    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Light Vehicle Sales Increased to 16.4 Million SAAR in September Note: Heavy truck sales will not be available from the BEA during the shutdown. Omida reported that light vehicle sales were at 16.4 milli...

Light Vehicle Sales Increased to 16.4 Million SAAR in September
www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/10/ligh...

expiring EV credit boosted sales.

02.10.2025 12:15 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 7    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

30 Worst Performing CBSAs

01.10.2025 16:05 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 12    ๐Ÿ” 3    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 4    ๐Ÿ“Œ 1
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Freddie Mac House Price Index Up 1.6% Year-over-Year Punta Gorda House Prices Down almost 20% from Peak

Freddie Mac House Price Index Up 1.6% Year-over-Year
Punta Gorda House Prices Down almost 20% from Peak
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/freddie-ma...

01.10.2025 16:00 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 13    ๐Ÿ” 2    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 2

ISMยฎ Manufacturing index at 49.1% in September www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/10/ism-...

The ISM manufacturing index indicated contraction. The PMIยฎ was at 49.1% in September, up from 48.7% in August. The employment index was at 45.3%, up from 43.8% the previous month.

01.10.2025 14:12 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 7    ๐Ÿ” 3    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

ADP: Private Employment Decreased 32,000 in September www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/10/adp-...

01.10.2025 12:25 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 84    ๐Ÿ” 25    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 6    ๐Ÿ“Œ 2

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