Goldman “We estimate that seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims decreased to about 218k for the week ended October 25th by combining the Department of Labor (DOL)’s pre-released seasonal factors with this afternoon’s release of state-level claims.”
30.10.2025 22:23 — 👍 12 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 1
BofA: "We remain comfortable with our view that the Fed will not cut rates again under Chair Powell. But it's clear that, barring a clear signal in either direction from the data, the December decision will be even more contentious than October."
29.10.2025 22:34 — 👍 18 🔁 4 💬 0 📌 0
www.mortgagenewsdaily.com
29.10.2025 20:40 — 👍 19 🔁 5 💬 2 📌 0
Odds of Dec rate cut dropping ...
29.10.2025 18:46 — 👍 14 🔁 2 💬 1 📌 0
*POWELL: RATE CUT IN DECEMBER IS 'FAR FROM' FOREGONE CONCLUSION
and scene
29.10.2025 18:37 — 👍 38 🔁 7 💬 5 📌 3
Another 20" to 30" of rain forecast for Jamaica mountains.
28.10.2025 18:06 — 👍 20 🔁 4 💬 1 📌 1
![Accommodation
The government shutdown and economic malaise are taking a toll on hotel and travel demand.
Administrative and support services
It feels impossible to predict what the hiring and employment market will be in six months. This year has been the most challenging in 15 years of search and staffing. Candidates have failed background checks. Employers have delayed hiring, candidates have accepted counter offers, others have continued interviewing after accepting a new role. These events used to be uncommon and rare. Now they're happening on a regular basis. Revenue swings month to month are drastic. We are trying to budget and forecast, but it is impossible, and I'm on the edge of laying off an employee now. Business has felt recessionary for over a year—no wonder we knew the jobs numbers were off and kept saying there was no way they were as good as reported, and we were correct. These are very tough times for small and midsized businesses.
The level of uncertainty has increased in the face of higher interest rates and borrowing costs. Layoffs in the energy sector are just now being felt, and the federal shutdown will have a compounding impact.
The government shutdown [is an issue impacting our business].
Most of our customers are federal agencies. If there is a shutdown, our business suffers.
Ambulatory health care services
We are seeing major price escalation resistance.
There are numerous factors affecting our outlook and current performance. A general downturn in the economy and economic outlook coupled with increased layoffs and significant increases in prices for day-to-day commodities have reduced demand for those seeking our pediatric urgent care services. Healthcare fatigue is also a factor post-COVID. Couple that with the frankly baseless guidance that the Department of Health and Human Services is providing, there is also a lot of confusion among potential patients of ours of sound medical judgement.
With continued angst over secured overnight fin…](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:pnx2fjuannbdpy3337ggthpp/bafkreih4fo3jk7iiambdifeixhnhw7rwyl2bhrplypt27shl6bmvrzgpoa@jpeg)
Accommodation
The government shutdown and economic malaise are taking a toll on hotel and travel demand.
Administrative and support services
It feels impossible to predict what the hiring and employment market will be in six months. This year has been the most challenging in 15 years of search and staffing. Candidates have failed background checks. Employers have delayed hiring, candidates have accepted counter offers, others have continued interviewing after accepting a new role. These events used to be uncommon and rare. Now they're happening on a regular basis. Revenue swings month to month are drastic. We are trying to budget and forecast, but it is impossible, and I'm on the edge of laying off an employee now. Business has felt recessionary for over a year—no wonder we knew the jobs numbers were off and kept saying there was no way they were as good as reported, and we were correct. These are very tough times for small and midsized businesses.
The level of uncertainty has increased in the face of higher interest rates and borrowing costs. Layoffs in the energy sector are just now being felt, and the federal shutdown will have a compounding impact.
The government shutdown [is an issue impacting our business].
Most of our customers are federal agencies. If there is a shutdown, our business suffers.
Ambulatory health care services
We are seeing major price escalation resistance.
There are numerous factors affecting our outlook and current performance. A general downturn in the economy and economic outlook coupled with increased layoffs and significant increases in prices for day-to-day commodities have reduced demand for those seeking our pediatric urgent care services. Healthcare fatigue is also a factor post-COVID. Couple that with the frankly baseless guidance that the Department of Health and Human Services is providing, there is also a lot of confusion among potential patients of ours of sound medical judgement.
With continued angst over secured overnight fin…
Educational services
Uncertainty about visa approval rates and H1-B visa fees will have a potentially significant negative impact.
Personal and laundry services
I am concerned about the government shutdown.
Pipeline transportation
Lower oil prices impact producer activity and uncertainty.
Professional, scientific and technical services
We're seeing significant uncertainty among our oil and gas service company clients. Commodity prices are down, and there is no real cause to anticipate an upturn in drilling activities.
The residential market has continued its decline due to the uncertainty of the economy. Homebuilders are having a difficult time selling homes, even with the incentives they are offering, and existing homes are just sitting. The commercial market is a little better but is being held up by energy and data center transactions. We need a major adjustment in the pricing of homes or a significant reduction in the interest rate to get this market moving again.
Interest rates are still too high. Reduction in regulations is improving optimism. The Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins (GENIUS) Act will open new opportunities.
We have seen an upturn in work flowing from clients in October in consulting engineering.
All of our customers are scaling back on technology spending.
I feel like our clients are more apprehensive. We are writing a lot of proposals, but they are just sitting. Projects are still being planned, but the execution is being delayed.
I work globally with international companies, so uncertainty is inherently high, and it will likely increase in the coming months. Four new governments in Latin America will be decided within the next six months, and such political transitions always contribute to greater economic and business uncertainty.
Commodity prices adversely affecting upstream oil and gas companies coupled with potential increased costs from renewed China tariffs creates an uncertain or negative outlook.
We are …
Publishing industries (except internet)
There is significant inflation in regular goods prices.
We continue to be concerned about compounding effects of tariffs, government shutdown, reduced federal spending, wavering consumer confidence and the levels of credit card usage and delinquency (which we expect to increase), as well as the generally antibusiness policies being championed by Republican lawmakers and the Trump administration.
Real estate
The sentiment we see from apartment residents, owners, vendors, employees and others is neither optimism nor excessive worry. Folks are getting by OK, reallocating spending to compensate for high food prices, and they seem resigned to their fate. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) continues to terrify immigrants, and they are keeping their heads down. Few people are moving, changing jobs or expecting more. The economy feels like it's in the doldrums, and all the outrageous politics just feels like noise. Our company is doing well enough to throw a couple of big events and make improvements to properties we own. Being conservative, focusing on fundamentals and conserving cash have paid off for us. Others see us doing well, so more prospects are coming our way.
We are always hopeful things are going to move forward and upward. Our goal is to survive the next six months.
Rental and leasing services
I don't know that any geopolitical or political conditions have changed our business outlook. The fourth quarter is typically when we do 27 percent to 29 percent of our volume. The first two quarters of the year are typically slow due to weather and manufacturers trying to manage their budgets. Tax-incentive buying pulls purchases ahead into fourth quarter 2025.
Repair and maintenance
We are a naturally seasonal business. Our outlook for the future is bright.
Securities, commodity contracts and other financial investments and related activities
Uncertainty remains uncertain.
I wish we would get clarity on tariffs. We have bee…
Specialty trade contractors
Volatility—including interest rates, stock market fluctuations, geopolitical issues and the government shutdown—is creating poor confidence.
Support activities for transportation
With the current administration taking meaningful action to address foreign labor issues, the outlook for the trucking and logistics industry has improved considerably. The decline faced in recent years has been attributable to violations of federal laws, most notably allowing those not legally authorized and without English proficiency to saturate the market and to violate cabotage restrictions. We are encouraged by the renewed emphasis on enforcement and compliance. As these measures take effect and below-market labor practices are curtailed, American motor carriers will once again be able to begin breaking even and then to profit.
Telecommunications
Too much funding (private equity combined with the Broadband Equity, Access and Deployment program) is flowing into the broadband industry as evident by the number of broadband providers in any given area. While it has naturally increased competition, resulting in lower pricing, it is also driving irrational investment decisions. These decisions will have consequences once the broadband market begins a correction in the next three to five years.
Truck transportation
Our business has died.
Utilities
I feel better about business activity, but the threatened tariffs do not help with the business situation.
Warehousing and storage
General economic conditions appear to be worsening, though it's hard to put a finger on exactly where or why. We're working through 2026 budget and are expecting revenue to either stay flat or dip. We are eliminating a small number of heads, roughly 4 percent of our workforce. We expect inflation to continue to impact the cost to provide services and will be adjusting revenue in response.
Dallas Fed services comments are LIT this month
"generally antibusiness policies being championed by Republican lawmakers and the Trump administration"
www.dallasfed.org/research/sur...
28.10.2025 16:09 — 👍 354 🔁 102 💬 12 📌 18
Home sales: October closings. There might be some impact on closings in October due to the shutdown. Government flood insurance isn't available. Some programs FHA, VA might see delays. The IRS automated tax transcript service is still working, but not taking phone calls. Fannie & Freddie OK.
27.10.2025 19:39 — 👍 13 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
The forecasts are for 30" to 40" of rain in the mountains of Jamaica over next few days. The flooding will be horrendous.
27.10.2025 18:56 — 👍 23 🔁 6 💬 0 📌 1
Jamaica getting hammered by Melissa
27.10.2025 18:36 — 👍 22 🔁 2 💬 3 📌 1
CPI data collection issues continued in September. A record 40% of missing data was subject to "different cell" imputation, meaning the data comes from a different region.
Please see follow up tweets for some clarification of what this does and doesn't mean. #NumbersDay
24.10.2025 15:24 — 👍 181 🔁 59 💬 7 📌 10
S&P Mfg PMI: "business confidence in the outlook for the coming year has deteriorated further and is at one of the lowest levels seen over the past three years as companies worry about the impact of policies, most notably tariffs.”
24.10.2025 16:24 — 👍 19 🔁 6 💬 1 📌 0
They are considering a special question on the impact the immigration policy in the next quarterly survey. The shared with me that they heard tenants are struggling financially.
2/2
24.10.2025 14:58 — 👍 10 🔁 2 💬 0 📌 0
I spoke with a senior analyst at the NMHC. In this survey they didn’t ask specifically about the impact of immigration policy, however they heard policy is negatively impacting rents & vacancies in South Florida.
1/2
24.10.2025 14:55 — 👍 17 🔁 4 💬 2 📌 0
CoStar (private data they've kindly provided to me for years).
24.10.2025 14:38 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
