Joel Petersson Ivre ์œ ์—˜'s Avatar

Joel Petersson Ivre ์œ ์—˜

@joelivre.bsky.social

๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ช in ๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ท | "Yoo-el" | Senior Policy Fellow at Asia-Pacific Leadership Network | Nuclear Non-Proliferation and Disarmament | Shilling for Big Disarma | views mine and not to be taken too seriously | same id on the Old Place

2,559 Followers  |  1,123 Following  |  344 Posts  |  Joined: 12.09.2023  |  2.101

Latest posts by joelivre.bsky.social on Bluesky

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(LEAD) FM Cho calls nuclear-free Korean Peninsula 'imperative' never to be abandoned | Yonhap News Agency (ATTN: UPDATES with remarks by China, Japan's ambassadors in last 5 paras) SEOUL, N...

Iโ€™m not saying these views should be ignored (the books are on my to- read list), but there is a tactical element to this too. Why did the people collect 10m signatures for nuclear armament suddenly realize that a โ€slow incremental approachโ€ was necessary?

For context:

en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN2025...

18.11.2025 10:30 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 2    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Hmmmm the same group that was loudly extolling the virtues of independent nuclear armament under the previous nuclear-friendly government now changes tack the same summer a new anti-nuclear gov comes to power. Framed here as a slow deliberate re-thinking of Seoulโ€™s relationship with Washington.

18.11.2025 10:30 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 2    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Seoulโ€™s pledge of $33 billion in support to USFK shows growing defense burden under Trump Experts say a clause on โ€œcomprehensive supportโ€ for US Forces Korea in the recently released fact sheet on security agreements between the US and Korea could be cause for concern

"Even if we take the government at its word, it would still mean Korea is spending $3.3 billion annually, or three times the amount it is paying for defense costs at present."

17.11.2025 21:44 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 6    ๐Ÿ” 2    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Dirty, Dangerousโ€ฆ and Difficult? Regional Perspectives on a Nuclear South Korea - Alexander M. Hynd, 2025 Domestic support for a nuclear South Korea is increasingly noticeableโ€”with envisioned pathways including the return of US tactical nuclear weapons, a NATO-style...

Actually not entirely anecdotal, Alex Hynd makes that argument here: journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...

16.11.2025 08:59 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 0    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

This entirely anecdotal but whenever I discuss the Korean nuclear debate with Chinese I get the distinct sense that they are more concerned with US-ROK nuclear sharing (aimed at them) than independent armament (aimed at North Korea).

16.11.2025 08:39 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 3    ๐Ÿ” 1    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

And if you donโ€™t close the door properly when you leave:
DING DING DING I AM NOT LOCKED ๐Ÿ˜ก๐Ÿ˜ก๐Ÿ˜ก

15.11.2025 15:19 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 3    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

It wasnโ€™t until I had to put a baby to sleep every night that I realized how much light and noise exist in a Korean home. Thereโ€™s an LED climate control panel on the bed room wall that wonโ€™t turn off, my washing machine plays Schubert after a cycle, my door proudly announces ๐ŸŽถ๐ŸŽถ๐ŸŽถI AM LOCKED โ˜บ๏ธโ˜บ๏ธโ˜บ๏ธ

15.11.2025 15:18 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 4    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 2    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

How much did Gaetz Venmo you to get this framing?

14.11.2025 01:37 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 1    ๐Ÿ” 1    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Always appreciate you sharing your two cents, Frank.

12.11.2025 22:07 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 1    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Responsibility Over Rivalry: Why India and Pakistan Should Reject Nuclear Testing | Asia-Pacific Leadership Network

New @apln.network commentary on implications of the nuclear testing debate for ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ณ and ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฐ, by @khansahar1.bsky.social & @haleemasaadia.bsky.social -

06.11.2025 10:40 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 6    ๐Ÿ” 7    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Well said!

05.11.2025 07:43 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 1    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

It's a terrible plan if that is the case. If โ€“ย and it's a huge if โ€“ they get HEU reactors, those will be sealed shut (AUKUS style) and the US (and the rest of the world) will be scrutinizing the whole enterprise by the seams.

04.11.2025 08:26 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 0    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Alternatively, this is driven by some form of prestige-related yee-haw-strategic-autonomy chimera on the progressive side, with a side of giving the ROKN a nice toy for not being political like the army.

To be clear, these are also not good reasons for getting a nuclear sub.

04.11.2025 05:37 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 2    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

So at face value, the (progressive) arguments in favor of a nuclear propelled submarine are either weak or non-existent, or someone is not being honest about what they want and why they want it.

04.11.2025 05:37 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 1    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 2    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

3) Maintaining a continuous at sea nuclear deterrent; but the ROK progressives don't want a nuclear weapon, or so they say.

04.11.2025 05:37 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 1    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

2) Extending operational range; but ROK progressives don't want to get involved beyond the Peninsula, or so they say.

04.11.2025 05:37 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 1    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

1) Hunting other nuclear subs; this is the stated rationale but you can do the same thing more cheaply with diesel and other ASW capabilities.

04.11.2025 05:37 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 1    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

There are three reasons for getting a nuclear propelled submarine but none apply to the ROK:

04.11.2025 05:37 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 5    ๐Ÿ” 2    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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๏งก๋Œ€ํ†ต๋ น "๋ฐฉ์œ„๋น„ ์ฆ์•กยท๋Œ€๋ฏธํˆฌ์ž ํ™•๋Œ€โ€ฆํ•ต์ž  ์—ฐ๋ฃŒ ํ—ˆ์šฉํ•ด๋‹ฌ๋ผ"(์ข…ํ•ฉ) | ์—ฐํ•ฉ๋‰ด์Šค (๊ฒฝ์ฃผ=์—ฐํ•ฉ๋‰ด์Šค) ์ž„ํ˜•์„ญ ์ด์ƒํ˜„ ํ™ฉ์œค๊ธฐ ๊ธฐ์ž = ์ด์žฌ๋ช… ๋Œ€ํ†ต๋ น์€ 29์ผ ๋„๋„๋“œ ํŠธ๋Ÿผํ”„ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ๋Œ€ํ†ต๋ น์„ ํ–ฅํ•ด "ํ•ต์ถ”์ง„์ž ์ˆ˜ํ•จ์˜ ์—ฐ๋ฃŒ๋ฅผ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ๊ณต๊ธ‰๋ฐ›์„...

ROK President asks Trump to allow nuclear propulsion for South Korean submarines.

www.yna.co.kr/view/AKR2025...

29.10.2025 07:13 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 3    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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We Don't Need to Live in a House Made of Dynamite: Take Action Today Take action to stop dangerous and unnecessary plans to produce plutonium bomb cores for new nuclear weapons. Write Congress today.

Here's the correct link to take action! ๐Ÿ‘‡

23.10.2025 15:42 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 10    ๐Ÿ” 8    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 1
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SCIENTISTS REACT ๐ŸŽฌ

UCS nuclear experts watched the trailer for A #HouseOfDynamite, coming to Netflix this weekend, and hereโ€™s what they had to say: โ€œI hope this film is a wake-up call.โ€

Take action: act.ucsusa.org/4hormMp

22.10.2025 19:54 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 38    ๐Ÿ” 19    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 2    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Not today, Satan!

25.09.2025 00:05 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 5    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Pakistan says its nuclear program can be made available to Saudi Arabia under defense pact Pakistanโ€™s defense minister says that his nationโ€™s nuclear program โ€œwill be made availableโ€ to Saudi Arabia if needed under the countriesโ€™ new defense pact.

Pakistan says its nuclear program can be made available to Saudi Arabia under defense pact

20.09.2025 14:12 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 3    ๐Ÿ” 2    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 2

As much as I would like it to be true, I don't think this kind of transfer necessarily violates the NPT. Thanks AUKUS!

19.09.2025 06:24 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 1    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Between the Georgia raid and the likely election of a far right-wing PM in Japan, Koreaโ€™s relations with each look shaky. But when the excrement eventually hits the fan, expect the usual suspects to blame it on โ€Koreaโ€™s pro-China Presidentโ€ instead.

15.09.2025 02:01 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 3    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

MTCR?

05.09.2025 12:34 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 1    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Iโ€™m happy to chalk this into the โ€ things that werenโ€™t gonna happen arenโ€™t gonna happen even more nowโ€ column

05.09.2025 11:41 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 0    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Nuclear Weapons At China's 2025 Victory Day Parade - Federation of American Scientists This buildup appears to contradict China's obligations under the nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty and could well stimulate nuclear buildups in the United States and India.

TL;DR of nukes at China's military parade yesterday:

๐Ÿค” DF-61 - new ICBM??
๐Ÿ•ณ๏ธ DF-31BJ - silo loader?
โœˆ๏ธ air-launched ballistic missile?
๐Ÿ”บ entire nuclear triad displayed for first time

Read our @scientistsorg.bsky.social team's full analysis below:

04.09.2025 13:48 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 15    ๐Ÿ” 10    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

And they never link to the original so yo can never check if something else is off.

04.09.2025 12:27 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 2    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Iโ€™m going to straight up adapt this for anything I write or edit in the future.

02.09.2025 14:49 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 3    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

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