Fiscal Policy Institute

Will taxing the rich spur them to flee New York?

No.

"There was no notable increase in out-migration among high earners following the State’s 2021 increases to the top Personal Income Tax rates. These higher tax rates raise approximately $3.6 billion annually"—
@nyfiscalpolicy.bsky.social

Table 2. Average OBBBA tax advantages for top earners

That comes to $12 billion in federal tax cuts for New York's millionaires—at the cost of up to one million New Yorkers losing health insurance and hundreds of thousands facing hunger due to SNAP and Medicaid cuts.

New York’s Millionaires Will Get a $12 Billion Federal Tax Cut Next Year - Fiscal Policy Institute OBBBA will save New York taxpayers who earn $1 million in annual income a collective $12 billion in federal taxes each year.

On average, Trump's OBBBA will give the equivalent of a $129,600 annual tax cut to each millionaire in New York next year—2.7% of their total income.

“The top 1% just received a trillion-dollar federal tax cut. It’s only fair that they now pay a little bit more to make New York City affordable" — on the Mayor-elects' proposed 2 percentage point rate hike on those making more than $1 million a year

We encourage the governor to consider extending funds beyond what was pledged today—which will cover merely 1 week of food assistance—and to continue to investigate ways to load SNAP EBT cards with the funds upon which families rely. 2/2

Governor Hochul Commits $106 Million to Fighting Hunger During Federal Shutdown - Fiscal Policy Institute With the federal shutdown entering its thirtieth day, it is now expected that federal funding for SNAP benefits (food stamps) will run out at the end of October. This morning, Governor Hochul announce...

With SNAP cuts looming, @governor.ny.gov just pledged an additional $65M to fund charitable food assistance.

However, on Saturday 3 million New Yorkers, including 1,000,000 children, who rely on SNAP for food security will lose $640M per month in benefits, triggering a hunger crisis in NY. 1/2

NYSNA members welcomed Ulster County Exec. @jenmetzgerny.bsky.social, Michael Kinnucan @nyfiscalpolicy.bsky.social, Juanita O. Lewis
@cvhaction.bsky.social for a powerful panel on the impact of the federal healthcare cuts.

"Now that we have enough data to study the 2021 tax increase, that increase did not lead to more out-migration for high earners." —@emmurpheis.bsky.social in today's Morning Spew

Critics of @zohrankmamdani.bsky.social's plan to fund social programs say raising taxes on millionaires will lead to significant out-migration among the wealthy

But 2023 tax data from New York Department of Taxation and Finance refutes this—confirming that tax flight among high earners is a myth

🚨New Tax Data Confirm Tax Flight Is A Myth:

Analysis of new tax data shows that the 2021 tax increases on high earners raise an estimated $3.6 billion annually, boosting state revenue without triggering increased out-migration among high earners.

fiscalpolicy.org/new-tax-data...

For more info see @emmurpheis.bsky.social's report from April, "The Urgent Need to Raise Unemployment Insurance Benefits" fiscalpolicy.org/the-urgent-n...

Weekly unemployment insurance benefits set to increase The maximum unemployment insurance benefit rate from $504 per week to $869 per week beginning, now that the state has paid off its unemployment trust fund debt.

We're proud to have worked with the AFL-CIO to reform this system—convincing the State to pay down its $7B debt, raise the maximum weekly UI benefit rate, and expand the taxable wage base to increase the fund’s long-term fiscal stability. www.cityandstateny.com/policy/2025/...

RGB should index to CPI less shelter costs

See @emmurpheis.bsky.social's testimony before the Rent Guidelines Board here:
fiscalpolicy.org/fpi-testifie...

Stabilized Rents Up 12.6% in Adams’ New York

Rent increases are contributing to an affordability crisis in NYC. A new factsheet from @cssnyorg.bsky.social draws on our RGB testimony to show that hikes for rent-stabilized tenants under Adams and Bloomberg have caused rents to outpace the cost of other goods. www.cssny.org/publications...

New Data Show Rising Inequality, Strong Wage Growth for Top Earners - Fiscal Policy Institute New data released this morning show that inequality is rising in New York, with income gains for the state’s richest residents driving statewide wage growth well above the national average.

Read more: fiscalpolicy.org/new-data-sho...

Gini measure of income inequality in New York and the US

NY’s income inequality rose in 2024— remaining the highest of any state, while national inequality fell.

Share of low- and high-income households in New York and the US

Top 20% of NY households saw 2.9% income growth (vs. 1.4% nationally), and the top 5% saw 3.8% (vs. 0.7% nationally). NY’s comparatively small middle class is shrinking, with 13% more households earning <$25K and 26% more earning >$200K than the US average.

NY job growth is sluggish at 0.6% in Q1 2025 and 1.2% in 2024, trailing national averages. High-paying industries—and historic federal tax cuts for these same top earners—are fueling growth in wages for high-earners, not jobs.

New York and US real wage growth by income group from 2023 to 2024

In Q1 2025, NY wages grew 8.0%, outpacing the US at 4.8%. But low-income households saw only 0.7% income growth (vs. 1.9% nationally) and middle-income households 1.6% (vs. 2.1% nationally).

New data from the US Census Bureau & Bureau of Labor Statistics show rising income inequality in New York. Top earners are driving strong wage growth, while low- and middle-income households lag behind. (1/6)

New York’s Small Group Market Has Big Problems - Fiscal Policy Institute Health insurance premiums will rise steeply for many small businesses in 2026. New York’s small group market may be facing a death spiral.

High health care prices have played a major role in premium growth in recent years. Only a comprehensive set of price regulations can help address the root cause of unaffordable health insurance premiums in the state.

Read the full brief: fiscalpolicy.org/ny-small-gr... (7/7)

Troubling trends in New York’s small group market - Fiscal Policy Institute Read Full Report By Bailey Hu, Health Policy Analyst, & Michael Kinnucan, Director of Health Policy Prior to the passage of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) in 2010, small business employers in New York and other states often had difficulty buying affordable health insurance, especially if their employees were in

To ensure the small group & individual marketplaces can provide affordable, high-quality insurance for all, policymakers should adopt measures to stem enrollment losses and address high premiums. As we reported in July: (6/7)
fiscalpolicy.org/troubling-t...

Unfortunately, @NYDFS's rate increases indicate that these trends will likely continue. Oxford Health Insurance (subsidiary of
@UHC), the largest insurer in NYC & Long Island's small group markets, has an approved increase of 11.8% for 2026, more than 2x its 2025 increase. (5/7)

As of last March, the average monthly premium for a gold-tier, single-coverage plan ranged above $1,200 in NYC & Long Island. Both regions also saw high rates of premium growth in 2020–24, outpaced only by Rochester's stunning 45 percent jump in premiums. (4/7)

In 2020–24, enrollment dropped by 24% while premiums also soared in most regions of the state. (3/7)

New numbers from NY Department of Dinancial Services show premiums will rise steeply for many small businesses in 2026. Since those who leave the market tend to be younger and healthier, the average cost of insuring those remaining rises, causing more businesses to leave. (2/7)

🚨NY health insurance premiums are set to rise by 13% for small businesses — on track to double by 2031. Small group markets in some areas may be facing a death spiral. (1/7)

Importantly, FPI's estimates of the funding cuts are much higher than those announced by the NYS Division of the Budget. We explain why in these reports.

Report 1: fiscalpolicy.org/the-state-is...

Report 2: fiscalpolicy.org/making-sense...

Today, FPI is releasing two reports on how to understand the impact of federal funding cuts in New York.

Key points: 1) the cuts amount to over $20bn annually by 2030, 2) 1.5 million NYers will lose healthcare, 3) FPI advises a special session to remedy (1) and (2).

Importantly, our estimates of the funding cuts are *much* higher than the State has announced. We explain why in the two reports.

Report 1: fiscalpolicy.org/the-state-is...

Report 2: fiscalpolicy.org/making-sense...