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Michael Caley

@michaelcaley.bsky.social

I write the Expecting Goals newsletter (expectinggoals.com) and I'm gonna try to bring soccer analytics to bluesky. Let's see if it works. He/him.

11,943 Followers  |  539 Following  |  7,207 Posts  |  Joined: 10.05.2023  |  2.2992

Latest posts by michaelcaley.bsky.social on Bluesky

this entire made up controversy is driving me nuts. I have a genetic disease. I’ve written about eugenics. Not everything is eugenics!

03.08.2025 20:53 β€” πŸ‘ 318    πŸ” 26    πŸ’¬ 76    πŸ“Œ 55

People on here will just tweet anything. β€œThe global economy in 2025 is way worse than the 2008 financial crisis, people had disposable income then”. no they didn’t, that isn’t true

04.08.2025 00:37 β€” πŸ‘ 295    πŸ” 21    πŸ’¬ 14    πŸ“Œ 2

man strong

03.08.2025 21:15 β€” πŸ‘ 9    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 0

it is not trivial for news organizations to determine that an entire political party is lying about a specific topic, but that in turn means that they should be absolutely ruthless when something comes to be demonstrated to be a lie in order to enforce the norm

03.08.2025 19:54 β€” πŸ‘ 40    πŸ” 12    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 0
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His captaincy, like most of his time at Spurs, was relentlessly questioned.

The revisionism now that he’s gone is shameful.

But it’s clear that he was *the* captain this squad and club needed.

He is Mr Tottenham and you’d best not ever forget it.

03.08.2025 17:40 β€” πŸ‘ 141    πŸ” 18    πŸ’¬ 9    πŸ“Œ 2

depends on what you're trying to accomplish

they can be labor saving in certain fields with certain skills. they suck at artistic production. to me they're fun to use, that varies.

03.08.2025 17:23 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Supply and demand side phenomenon. We stopped investing public resources in education as demand for it soared (roughly by an order of magnitude, maybe two). It’s the same phenomenon as decaying infrastructure or housing.

03.08.2025 16:19 β€” πŸ‘ 382    πŸ” 71    πŸ’¬ 20    πŸ“Œ 2

yeah to be clear solving hallucinations specifically seems like a different kind of problem, addressed mostly with linear compute afacit

03.08.2025 16:41 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

they have been surprisingly effective at this by throwing gargantuan amount of compute power at the problem. it's both gotten way better and been a much more linear relationship of costs to benefits than I think the AI scalars would want.

03.08.2025 16:33 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

maybe this is too far a walk but the sort of early-capitalist self-promoters, entrepreneurs of themselves on the frontier, have a lot in common with contemporary influencers

the timing is right for this kind of film

03.08.2025 16:10 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
Post image 03.08.2025 16:08 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 0

they're also really good for high-level specialist searches for information

there's an LLM-driven medical research search tool that is far better than the previous medical paper search process

this is also apparently true for legal research compared to existing tools

03.08.2025 15:43 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

depends on the topic but it's absolutely night and day with coding eg

03.08.2025 15:41 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

they are systematically tearing down everything that actually makes America great

03.08.2025 15:32 β€” πŸ‘ 81    πŸ” 15    πŸ’¬ 3    πŸ“Œ 0

yeah exactly

the sign system level correlations between pro-sociality and everything useful you want a productivity tool to do are fascinating

03.08.2025 15:29 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

it's so much better at answering complex questions than search tho

03.08.2025 15:28 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

yeah lol it really is

03.08.2025 15:20 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

it's an interesting question how much the LLM personality is a function of trying to keep users engaged by treating them well and how much it's a function of the broad sign-system correlation between personality level agreeability and providing useful, true information

03.08.2025 15:20 β€” πŸ‘ 5    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

there's such a clear and direct correlation between

-how much useful output you can get from an LLM

and

-how well you understand the topic you're asking about
-how well you can write in plain language about the topic

03.08.2025 15:17 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

one funny skill working with LLMs is that you have to treat them like an extremely insecure student who will immediately back off their position in response to any questioning, and you have to aggressively caveat your own statements and give them as much space as possible to assert their own opinion

03.08.2025 15:01 β€” πŸ‘ 46    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 4    πŸ“Œ 4

The fact that the one game made by an explicitly communist co-op game studio now has three successor studios making a self-proclaimed sequel to it, and dispute the legitimacy of the other two is, of course, the most communist outcome possible.

03.08.2025 07:46 β€” πŸ‘ 2980    πŸ” 759    πŸ’¬ 28    πŸ“Œ 19

Son has a rare kind of emotional openness for a professional athlete, just never seems afraid of his feelings or what feeling them in public says about him

03.08.2025 12:38 β€” πŸ‘ 84    πŸ” 7    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

yup more or less same

barring, you know, events

03.08.2025 00:01 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

It's crazy that the selling point of the "Naked Gun" reboot is nostalgia for the entire concept of "comedy" and "jokes." Remember "jokes"? Not riffs but actual planned, written jokes?

02.08.2025 21:50 β€” πŸ‘ 1974    πŸ” 304    πŸ’¬ 33    πŸ“Œ 10

nooooooooo

02.08.2025 22:25 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

my theory -- bsky.app/profile/did:...

02.08.2025 22:12 β€” πŸ‘ 8    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 0

pretty sure it is here. the double jeopardy exception only applies when you're attempting to play the ball

ref just decided it was only a yellow

02.08.2025 22:07 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 0

it's always funny to me when a soccer player innovates a new kind of dirty play, refs are like "well I've never seen that before so I don't know what to do with it, yellow card I guess"

02.08.2025 22:04 β€” πŸ‘ 25    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 1

Bruh that’s like, 3 red cards lol

02.08.2025 21:57 β€” πŸ‘ 111    πŸ” 8    πŸ’¬ 6    πŸ“Œ 2
02.08.2025 06:44 β€” πŸ‘ 572    πŸ” 77    πŸ’¬ 6    πŸ“Œ 0

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