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Charlie

@probabilitynpower.bsky.social

Think tanker. Senior Fellow at IISS.

18 Followers  |  125 Following  |  7 Posts  |  Joined: 09.08.2024  |  2.0303

Latest posts by probabilitynpower.bsky.social on Bluesky


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UK sanctions New Zealand insurer Maritime Mutual after Reuters report Britain on Tuesday sanctioned Maritime Mutual, the New Zealand-based marine insurer that was the subject of a Reuters special report into how it had helped in the trade of tens of billions of dollars ...

One of the major shadow fleet insurance companies, New Zealand based Maritime Mutual, has been sanctioned by UK

At their peak they insured 1 in 6 shadow tankers.

www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-...

www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-...

24.02.2026 18:48 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 129    ๐Ÿ” 43    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 2    ๐Ÿ“Œ 2
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Integrated Maritime Surveillance and GNSS Interference in the Atlantic Operation Area Date: February 16, 2026 Target Area: North-East Atlantic Ocean (Portuguese Sector) Subjects: ROSS Cargo (Sparta IV), FAP P-3C Orion (Reg:...

๐Ÿšจ Deep dive into the ongoing shadowing of the Russian vessel #SpartaIV.

From "mysterious" stops near Sardinia to electronic warfare (GNSS jamming) off the coast of Portugal.

Read the full technical report here:
๐Ÿ‘‰ seawarning.blogspot.com/2026/02/inte...

#OSINT #MaritimeSecurity #NATO #Portugal

16.02.2026 18:15 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 11    ๐Ÿ” 5    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 2    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Irish Defence Minister says Ireland considering boarding and inspecting Russian Shadow Fleet ships Helen McEntee, who is also Minister for Foreign Affairs and Trade, was speaking to The Journal today as she attends meetings at the Munich Security Conference.

Irish Defence Minister says Ireland considering boarding and inspecting Russian Shadow Fleet ships jrnl.ie/6957232

Fair to say an escalation in how Ireland is posturing around the sanctioned ships.

15.02.2026 08:25 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 7    ๐Ÿ” 2    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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EU official warns Russian shadow fleet threatens Europe Speaking at the Munich Security Conference, the EU's top diplomatic official Belén Martinez Carbonell warned that Russia's shadow fleet is now one of the most direct maritime security threats facing Europe. #MSC2026

Speaking at the Munich Security Conference, the EU's top diplomatic official Belรฉn Martinez Carbonell warned that Russia's shadow fleet is now one of the most direct maritime security threats facing Europe. #MSC2026
ukdefencejournal.org.uk/eu-official-...

15.02.2026 06:46 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 48    ๐Ÿ” 21    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 1
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Dessa tio fyrplatser fรฅr racon Fรถr att motverka GPS-stรถrningarna i ร–stersjรถn ska Sjรถfartsverket installera radarfyrar pรฅ ett antal platser utmed ร–stersjรถkusten.

The Swedish Maritime Administration have decided to install radar beacons in ten locations in order to decrease dependency on GPS navigation. www.praktisktbatagande.se/batnytt/dess...

15.02.2026 07:31 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 68    ๐Ÿ” 24    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 2    ๐Ÿ“Œ 3
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Shadow tanker BORACAY had two Russian "technicians" on board as her voyage past Denmark coincided with multiple drone sightings

CNN now shows how at least one of the technicians is actually a mercenary and many other tankers are crewed by mercs. As reported by DK pilots earlier

05.02.2026 16:55 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 218    ๐Ÿ” 76    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 4    ๐Ÿ“Œ 2

A Wargame Shows Just How Vulnerable Europe Is to a Russian Attack Deterrence depends not only on capabilities, but on political will. โ€˜Germany will hesitate. And this was enough to win,โ€ said Franz-Stefan Gady, a Vienna-based military analyst who played the Russian chief of general staff.โ€™

05.02.2026 11:57 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 0    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

โ€œFive, ten incidents like that, it starts to have a more strategic effect,โ€ he addedโ€ฆ โ€œSometimes I think they just want to keep us engaged and busy, investigating all these various operations of very minor significance, when the really big things are happening behind our backs.โ€

02.02.2026 20:04 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 0    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

A Liberia flagged freighter turned up in Denmark to pick up a new anchor.

The weeks before she was driving back and forth over an area of Baltic Sea particularly dense with comm cables and pipelines with a pit stop in Ust-Luga, Russia.

Hope someone, eg a cop, found out where the old one is.

02.02.2026 09:14 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 226    ๐Ÿ” 74    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 11    ๐Ÿ“Œ 6
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Spy cameras on Norwegian gas plant:
Cameras that monitored Melkรธya discovered
The police in Finnmark have discovered two advanced cameras that continuously filmed the gas plant on Melkรธya in the municipality of Hammerfest.

30.01.2026 12:11 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 14    ๐Ÿ” 8    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 2    ๐Ÿ“Œ 1
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#NATO #RAF #SAF selection of nato aircraft seen on the flight radar operating over and around the baltic sea and states - swedish / 2x RAF ISR assets, USAF tanker visible. #SVF680 #4A81F8 #AE04FD #RRR7228 #43C91D #BalticSea

28.01.2026 12:56 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 7    ๐Ÿ” 2    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Baltic Sea coastal states + UK released an open letter damning Russia's GPS-jamming and clarifying that normal rules for shipping also applies to the shadow fleet.

Interpreted* as "Baltic Sea closes for shadow fleet".

Cautiously optimistic I note ~60 sanctioned tanker active.

27.01.2026 22:53 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 213    ๐Ÿ” 70    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 5    ๐Ÿ“Œ 5
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Dozens of tankers carrying Russian oil are stuck at sea after Indian refineries refused to buy the cargoes, Bloomberg reported. About 60 million barrels have accumulated on ships since August, with no unloading in sight. #Russia

28.01.2026 09:20 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 347    ๐Ÿ” 69    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 7    ๐Ÿ“Œ 2
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The West and Ukraine are capsizing Russiaโ€™s shadow fleet And sinking its oil revenues in the process

โ€˜A Russian flag will make the shadow fleet less shadowy and more strategic. The Kremlin may dispatch submarines and fighter jets to protect some ships. This will make it harder for Western forces to intervene.โ€™

economist.com/finance-and-...

27.01.2026 20:40 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 1    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Russian strikes on Ukrainian energy CI - Trends and Outlook - Rochan Consulting In November 2025, I delivered a presentation to a client on Russian strikes against Ukrainian...

"...Russia is willing to absorb higher attrition rates on cruise missiles if the payoff is significant: disabling manoeuvring generation far from the front, disrupting power routing from nuclear plants, and forcing Ukraine into nationwide load-shedding." rochan-consulting.com/russian-stri...

27.01.2026 09:11 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 67    ๐Ÿ” 23    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 2    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Polandโ€™s energy infrastructure was targeted in a cyberattack now assessed as Russia-linked, involving an APT Sandworm. If the operation had succeeded, it could have caused major operational disruption, potentially a limited blackout. www.welivesecurity.com/en/eset-rese...

24.01.2026 07:05 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 19    ๐Ÿ” 20    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Sweden, Finland Propose Strict Ban on Services for Russia-Linked Tankers The governments of Sweden and Finland, which have both experienced suspicious incidents linked to "shadow fleet" tankers, have jointly called on the...

Sweden, Finland Propose Strict Ban on Services for Russia-Linked Tankers

maritime-executive.com/article/swed...

19.01.2026 16:27 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 18    ๐Ÿ” 5    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 1
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Poland suffers major cyberattack on power grid, says Russia likely responsible

Poland suffered a major cyberattack on its power grid at the end of December and "came very close to a blackoutโ€, the government has revealed.

โ€œEverything points to Russian sabotage," says the digital affairs minister.

14.01.2026 10:37 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 47    ๐Ÿ” 30    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 2
Denmark to deploy more troops to Greenland, DR reports - The Copenhagen Post Denmark has sent an advance military command to Greenland as preparations are made to deploy larger forces to the Arctic territory, according to DR. The advance command is tasked with preparing for th...

"Denmark has sent an advance military command to Greenland as preparations are made to deploy larger forces to the Arctic territory...The advance command is tasked with preparing for the arrival of additional units" cphpost.dk/2026-01-14/n...

14.01.2026 12:15 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 224    ๐Ÿ” 66    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 11    ๐Ÿ“Œ 14
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Finland's withdrawal from Ottawa landmine treaty takes effect Finland can now reintroduce anti-personnel landmines.

Finland can now reintroduce anti-personnel landmines.

10.01.2026 07:50 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 33    ๐Ÿ” 15    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 14
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โ€œRussia has brought war back to Europe, and we must be prepared for the scale of war our grandparents or great-grandparents endured.โ€ A stark message from NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte in Berlin.

A must read speech www.nato.int/en/news-and-...

11.12.2025 20:17 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 77    ๐Ÿ” 37    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 2    ๐Ÿ“Œ 6
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Polish PM says railway track blast was 'unprecedented act of sabotage' An explosion that damaged a Polish railway track on a route to Ukraine was an "unprecedented act of sabotage", Prime Minister Donald Tusk said on Monday, and he vowed to catch those responsible for an incident he said could have ended in tragedy.

Two explosions targeted a railway line that connects Poland and Ukraine. Prime Minister Tusk is calling these attacks โ€œan unprecedented act of sabotage aimed at the security of the Polish state and its citizens.โ€
www.reuters.com/world/explos...

17.11.2025 13:01 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 733    ๐Ÿ” 273    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 21    ๐Ÿ“Œ 13

'Closer analysis of the photo reveals two new radomes on the Yantar. The question is: what was this Russian spy ship doing with those new domes in the Dutch EEZ?'

07.11.2025 21:57 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 34    ๐Ÿ” 19    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 1

Brussels Zaventem Airport was temporarily closed this evening after a report of a drone in its airspace. The drone sighting, which occurred shortly before 8 p.m., prompted the suspension of all incoming and departing flights. All incoming flights were diverted to Liรจge.

04.11.2025 20:30 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 0    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Russian satellites are shadowing our satellites, warns German defence minister Germany's defence minister has warned that his country's satellites are being shadowed by Russian satellites.

๐Ÿš€๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ›ฐ๏ธ
โ€œGermany's defence minister has warned that his country's satellites are being shadowed by Russian satellites.

Boris Pistorius cited concerns over two ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ Luch/Olymp satellites shadowing Intelsat satellites used by German forces and others.โ€œ

25.09.2025 13:27 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 54    ๐Ÿ” 30    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 2    ๐Ÿ“Œ 2
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German Chancellor Merz says Russiaโ€™s violations of NATO airspace in Poland and Romania are part of Putinโ€™s long-term strategy of border testing and sabotage. He stressed that peace in Ukraine cannot come at the expense of sovereignty, warning a dictated peace would only embolden Moscow.

17.09.2025 08:54 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 329    ๐Ÿ” 41    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 7    ๐Ÿ“Œ 2
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Russisk skib fik maskinstop over undersรธiske kabler i Danmark Et topmoderne russiske fiskeskib meldte om maskinproblemer over tre undersรธiske data- og kommunikationskabler tรฆt ved Amager. Skibet blev overvรฅget af NATO.

The Russian fishing vessel which experienced machine failure in Denmark this weekend crossed three different undersea cables while drifting. It stopped close to undersea gas infrastructure and close by Danish military intelligence hq and CPH Airport. Experts suspect spying.

In Danish.

15.09.2025 15:02 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 157    ๐Ÿ” 45    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 13    ๐Ÿ“Œ 4
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As Sabotage in Europe Mounts, So Do Calls to Retaliate Against Russia

As Sabotage in Europe Mounts, So Do Calls to Retaliate Against Russia www.nytimes.com/2025/09/13/w...

13.09.2025 18:31 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 0    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Russian sabotage attacks surged across Europe in 2024 This yearโ€™s apparent lull may be the calm before another storm

I wrote this week on a new IISS report tracking suspected Russian sabotage in Europe. It shows a quadrupling in incidents between 2023 & 2024, as well as a more recent lull. That could indicate a change in Russia's calculusโ€”or just a temporary pause.
www.economist.com/graphic-deta...

25.07.2025 16:07 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 146    ๐Ÿ” 53    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 5    ๐Ÿ“Œ 3
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Colombian linked to Russian-backed arson attacks in Poland, say authorities A 27-year-old Colombian man working for Russian intelligence was behind two arson attacks in Poland in 2024, according to interior ministry spokesman Jacek Dobrzyล„ski.

So far, 32 people have been arrested in Poland for allegedly collaborating with Russia in acts of sabotage, according to PAP Polska Agencja Prasowa.
One Colombian national has already been sentenced (link) the others, including Belarusian and Russian citizens, remain in pre-trial detention.

29.07.2025 17:59 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 112    ๐Ÿ” 26    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

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