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Chris Liro

@crliro.bsky.social

IP lawyer and partner at Andrus IP Law. Fan of Red Sox, Bucks, science, and evidence. Alum of MIT and University of Michigan Law School. Bayside, WI

161 Followers  |  538 Following  |  531 Posts  |  Joined: 09.10.2023  |  2.6116

Latest posts by crliro.bsky.social on Bluesky

Juvenile whooping cranes being fed

Juvenile whooping cranes being fed

It was a group of juveniles being prepped by ICF for migration. Including a keeper in a crane costume feeding. Also seemed to be a wild adult just hanging out

15.11.2025 01:36 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 1    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

I came across something similar near Horicon a few weeks ago. Iโ€™ve never seen so many just hanging out in one place! Looked like it was a freshly turned over corn field. Also saw whoopings that day, so 11/10 crane day

15.11.2025 01:04 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 1    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

I once used an actual Batesยฎ๏ธstamp pre-pre-legal career but employed at a law firm, roughly 1986. Also was a word processing department that used 10 inch disks and amazing new software that would allow searching transcript text.

13.11.2025 19:39 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 0    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
A nighttime landscape featuring a calm reflective pond in the foreground and a dark silhouette of rolling hills in the distance. Above the horizon, vibrant aurora lights stretch across the sky in bands of green, yellow, and bright magenta, blending upward into deep purple. Faint stars dot the sky, and a soft glow at the horizon adds contrast to the colorful northern lights.

A nighttime landscape featuring a calm reflective pond in the foreground and a dark silhouette of rolling hills in the distance. Above the horizon, vibrant aurora lights stretch across the sky in bands of green, yellow, and bright magenta, blending upward into deep purple. Faint stars dot the sky, and a soft glow at the horizon adds contrast to the colorful northern lights.

A vivid display of the northern lights fills the night sky above a dark hillside and a still pond. Bright streaks of pink, magenta, and green auroras rise vertically from the horizon and blend into darker purple tones overhead. A few scattered house lights are visible on the right side of the frame, adding a sense of scale to the dramatic, colorful sky.

A vivid display of the northern lights fills the night sky above a dark hillside and a still pond. Bright streaks of pink, magenta, and green auroras rise vertically from the horizon and blend into darker purple tones overhead. A few scattered house lights are visible on the right side of the frame, adding a sense of scale to the dramatic, colorful sky.

A darker nighttime scene showing faint green and teal aurora lights near the horizon beneath a mostly black sky. The foreground includes a reflective pond and the shadowed outline of a hillside. A warm yellow light appears near the bottom edge of the image, likely from a nearby house or streetlamp, contrasting with the cool aurora tones.

A darker nighttime scene showing faint green and teal aurora lights near the horizon beneath a mostly black sky. The foreground includes a reflective pond and the shadowed outline of a hillside. A warm yellow light appears near the bottom edge of the image, likely from a nearby house or streetlamp, contrasting with the cool aurora tones.

A bright, colorful aurora display dominates the night sky above a silhouetted landscape and a reflective pond. Vertical beams of pink, magenta, green, and yellow auroras glow intensely near the horizon, fading into deep purple higher in the sky. The horizon line features hills and a few small lights from distant buildings, adding depth to the scene.

A bright, colorful aurora display dominates the night sky above a silhouetted landscape and a reflective pond. Vertical beams of pink, magenta, green, and yellow auroras glow intensely near the horizon, fading into deep purple higher in the sky. The horizon line features hills and a few small lights from distant buildings, adding depth to the scene.

Northern Lights above our East Madison Neighborhood! ๐ŸŒŒ ๐Ÿ˜

13.11.2025 04:26 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 176    ๐Ÿ” 20    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 1
Photo of the aurora borealis over Lake Michigan

Photo of the aurora borealis over Lake Michigan

Milwaukee, 2025

๐Ÿ“ธ by my mom, Linda Zetley

13.11.2025 03:50 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 73    ๐Ÿ” 7    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
Post image

The Aurora Borealus/ Northern Lights are magnificent this evening, here in our front yard in Sturgeon Bay, Wisconsin. ๐Ÿ˜€

13.11.2025 02:27 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 164    ๐Ÿ” 14    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 2    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
Pink aurora

Pink aurora

North of Milwaukee just now #aurora

13.11.2025 02:49 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 7    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
Pink aurora

Pink aurora

Outside just now north of MKE. Did not pick anything up with naked eye

13.11.2025 02:47 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 0    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
Space Weather Message Code: ALTK07
Serial Number: 198
Issue Time: 2025 Nov 13 0153 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 7
 Threshold Reached: 2025 Nov 13 0150 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0000-0300 UTC
 
Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G3 - Strong

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 50 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power system voltage irregularities possible, false alarms may be triggered on some protection devices.
Spacecraft - Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites and orientation problems may occur.
Navigation - Intermittent satellite navigation (GPS) problems, including loss-of-lock and increased range error may occur.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio may be intermittent.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as Pennsylvania to Iowa to Oregon.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK07 Serial Number: 198 Issue Time: 2025 Nov 13 0153 UTC ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 7 Threshold Reached: 2025 Nov 13 0150 UTC Synoptic Period: 0000-0300 UTC Active Warning: Yes NOAA Scale: G3 - Strong NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 50 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. Induced Currents - Power system voltage irregularities possible, false alarms may be triggered on some protection devices. Spacecraft - Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites and orientation problems may occur. Navigation - Intermittent satellite navigation (GPS) problems, including loss-of-lock and increased range error may occur. Radio - HF (high frequency) radio may be intermittent. Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as Pennsylvania to Iowa to Oregon.

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2025 Nov 13 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 9 (NOAA Scale
G5).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 13-Nov 15 2025 is 8.33 (NOAA Scale
G4).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 13-Nov 15 2025

             Nov 13       Nov 14       Nov 15
00-03UT       8.00 (G4)    4.67 (G1)    2.33     
03-06UT       8.33 (G4)    4.00         3.00     
06-09UT       7.33 (G3)    3.33         2.33     
09-12UT       5.00 (G1)    3.67         2.00     
12-15UT       4.33         3.33         1.33     
15-18UT       4.00         3.00         1.33     
18-21UT       4.33         3.00         2.00     
21-00UT       4.67 (G1)    3.33         2.33     

Rationale: G4 (Severe) geomagnetic storming remains likely, primarily
during the early hours of the 13 Nov UTC-day, due to ongoing CME
effects. Primarily G1 (Minor) to G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storming is
likely thereafter, carrying on into the early hours of the 14 Nov
UTC-day as CME effects gradually wane.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
above S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 13-Nov 15 2025

              Nov 13  Nov 14  Nov 15
S1 or greater   99%     75%     45%

Rationale: S1 (Minor) to S2 (Moderate) solar radiation storms are
expected to continue through 13 Nov before decreasing to the lower ends
of the S1 (Minor) threshold over the course of 14 Nov as CME influences
pass beyond the near-Earth environment.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 13-Nov 15 2025

              Nov 13        Nov 14        Nov 15
R1-R2           85%           85%           85%
R3 or greater   55%           55%           55%

Rationale: R1-2 (Minor-Moderate) radioblackouts are expected through 15
Nov and are likely to be accompanied by isolated R3 (Strong) events as
AR 4274 makes it approach towards the western limb of the solar disk.

:Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2025 Nov 13 0030 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 9 (NOAA Scale G5). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 13-Nov 15 2025 is 8.33 (NOAA Scale G4). NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 13-Nov 15 2025 Nov 13 Nov 14 Nov 15 00-03UT 8.00 (G4) 4.67 (G1) 2.33 03-06UT 8.33 (G4) 4.00 3.00 06-09UT 7.33 (G3) 3.33 2.33 09-12UT 5.00 (G1) 3.67 2.00 12-15UT 4.33 3.33 1.33 15-18UT 4.00 3.00 1.33 18-21UT 4.33 3.00 2.00 21-00UT 4.67 (G1) 3.33 2.33 Rationale: G4 (Severe) geomagnetic storming remains likely, primarily during the early hours of the 13 Nov UTC-day, due to ongoing CME effects. Primarily G1 (Minor) to G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storming is likely thereafter, carrying on into the early hours of the 14 Nov UTC-day as CME effects gradually wane. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was above S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 13-Nov 15 2025 Nov 13 Nov 14 Nov 15 S1 or greater 99% 75% 45% Rationale: S1 (Minor) to S2 (Moderate) solar radiation storms are expected to continue through 13 Nov before decreasing to the lower ends of the S1 (Minor) threshold over the course of 14 Nov as CME influences pass beyond the near-Earth environment. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 13-Nov 15 2025 Nov 13 Nov 14 Nov 15 R1-R2 85% 85% 85% R3 or greater 55% 55% 55% Rationale: R1-2 (Minor-Moderate) radioblackouts are expected through 15 Nov and are likely to be accompanied by isolated R3 (Strong) events as AR 4274 makes it approach towards the western limb of the solar disk.

Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.

Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.

Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.

Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.

Aurora Forecast Update for 2025-11-13T02:00:36Z

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 7
Threshold Reached: 2025 Nov 13 0150 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0000-0300 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G3 - Strong
Additional Details Here.

13.11.2025 02:00 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 14    ๐Ÿ” 9    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 4
Space Weather Message Code: ALTK06
Serial Number: 674
Issue Time: 2025 Nov 13 0121 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 6
 Threshold Reached: 2025 Nov 13 0116 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0000-0300 UTC
 
Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK06 Serial Number: 674 Issue Time: 2025 Nov 13 0121 UTC ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 6 Threshold Reached: 2025 Nov 13 0116 UTC Synoptic Period: 0000-0300 UTC Active Warning: Yes NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms. Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible. Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes. Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2025 Nov 13 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 9 (NOAA Scale
G5).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 13-Nov 15 2025 is 8.33 (NOAA Scale
G4).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 13-Nov 15 2025

             Nov 13       Nov 14       Nov 15
00-03UT       8.00 (G4)    4.67 (G1)    2.33     
03-06UT       8.33 (G4)    4.00         3.00     
06-09UT       7.33 (G3)    3.33         2.33     
09-12UT       5.00 (G1)    3.67         2.00     
12-15UT       4.33         3.33         1.33     
15-18UT       4.00         3.00         1.33     
18-21UT       4.33         3.00         2.00     
21-00UT       4.67 (G1)    3.33         2.33     

Rationale: G4 (Severe) geomagnetic storming remains likely, primarily
during the early hours of the 13 Nov UTC-day, due to ongoing CME
effects. Primarily G1 (Minor) to G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storming is
likely thereafter, carrying on into the early hours of the 14 Nov
UTC-day as CME effects gradually wane.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
above S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 13-Nov 15 2025

              Nov 13  Nov 14  Nov 15
S1 or greater   99%     75%     45%

Rationale: S1 (Minor) to S2 (Moderate) solar radiation storms are
expected to continue through 13 Nov before decreasing to the lower ends
of the S1 (Minor) threshold over the course of 14 Nov as CME influences
pass beyond the near-Earth environment.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 13-Nov 15 2025

              Nov 13        Nov 14        Nov 15
R1-R2           85%           85%           85%
R3 or greater   55%           55%           55%

Rationale: R1-2 (Minor-Moderate) radioblackouts are expected through 15
Nov and are likely to be accompanied by isolated R3 (Strong) events as
AR 4274 makes it approach towards the western limb of the solar disk.

:Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2025 Nov 13 0030 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 9 (NOAA Scale G5). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 13-Nov 15 2025 is 8.33 (NOAA Scale G4). NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 13-Nov 15 2025 Nov 13 Nov 14 Nov 15 00-03UT 8.00 (G4) 4.67 (G1) 2.33 03-06UT 8.33 (G4) 4.00 3.00 06-09UT 7.33 (G3) 3.33 2.33 09-12UT 5.00 (G1) 3.67 2.00 12-15UT 4.33 3.33 1.33 15-18UT 4.00 3.00 1.33 18-21UT 4.33 3.00 2.00 21-00UT 4.67 (G1) 3.33 2.33 Rationale: G4 (Severe) geomagnetic storming remains likely, primarily during the early hours of the 13 Nov UTC-day, due to ongoing CME effects. Primarily G1 (Minor) to G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storming is likely thereafter, carrying on into the early hours of the 14 Nov UTC-day as CME effects gradually wane. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was above S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 13-Nov 15 2025 Nov 13 Nov 14 Nov 15 S1 or greater 99% 75% 45% Rationale: S1 (Minor) to S2 (Moderate) solar radiation storms are expected to continue through 13 Nov before decreasing to the lower ends of the S1 (Minor) threshold over the course of 14 Nov as CME influences pass beyond the near-Earth environment. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 13-Nov 15 2025 Nov 13 Nov 14 Nov 15 R1-R2 85% 85% 85% R3 or greater 55% 55% 55% Rationale: R1-2 (Minor-Moderate) radioblackouts are expected through 15 Nov and are likely to be accompanied by isolated R3 (Strong) events as AR 4274 makes it approach towards the western limb of the solar disk.

Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.

Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.

Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.

Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.

Aurora Forecast Update for 2025-11-13T01:30:25Z

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Threshold Reached: 2025 Nov 13 0116 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0000-0300 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate
Additional Details Here.

13.11.2025 01:30 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 11    ๐Ÿ” 5    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
A clean shaven white man in a suit is holding a microphone and standing upon a beach during the day in front of a large grey shape that is a rotting whale carcass.

A clean shaven white man in a suit is holding a microphone and standing upon a beach during the day in front of a large grey shape that is a rotting whale carcass.

๐Ÿšจ EXPLODING WHALE DAY๐Ÿšจ

November 12, 1970:

A 40 ton whale carcass lays, rotting, on an Oregon beach.

A crowd has gathered to watch the whale carcass be dynamited to dispose of it.

HILARITY*. ENSUES.

*โ€blubber snowstormโ€

REMASTERED VIDEO!

www.youtube.com/embed/V6CLum...

12.11.2025 16:08 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 178    ๐Ÿ” 53    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 7    ๐Ÿ“Œ 24

Ken Starr signed an email to Jeffery Epstein with "hugs"

13.11.2025 00:22 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 3123    ๐Ÿ” 897    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 125    ๐Ÿ“Œ 204
Post image

Check it out! Here's a photo of the aurora sent to me by my sister near Somerset, Wisconsin. Photo is only five minutes old, so this is more or less a current view.

13.11.2025 01:10 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 190    ๐Ÿ” 29    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 5    ๐Ÿ“Œ 2
Video thumbnail

Earlier in the year I drove 9600 miles to do Milky Way photography.

Between that, work, my health, and the terrors, I'm exhausted.

I promised myself no more trips over 100 miles from home for the year, unless critical for the union.

I broke that promise Saturday.

Worth it.

Final version. ๐Ÿชถ

12.11.2025 04:34 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 992    ๐Ÿ” 129    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 43    ๐Ÿ“Œ 11
large 20-foot tall concrete lined sewer tunnel. in the distance three people stand with head lamps on their hard hats, looking toward the camera as they stand in ankle-deep water.

large 20-foot tall concrete lined sewer tunnel. in the distance three people stand with head lamps on their hard hats, looking toward the camera as they stand in ankle-deep water.

if you canโ€™t see the aurora borealis tonight, here is a sewer tunnel which is a wonder in itself.

12.11.2025 03:57 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 5767    ๐Ÿ” 901    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 137    ๐Ÿ“Œ 95

I went out to see if the clouds had cleared, and discovered it was rainingโ€ฆ.

12.11.2025 03:37 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 0    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
Space Weather Message Code: ALTK05
Serial Number: 1904
Issue Time: 2025 Nov 12 0310 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 5
 Threshold Reached: 2025 Nov 12 0305 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0300-0600 UTC
 
Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK05 Serial Number: 1904 Issue Time: 2025 Nov 12 0310 UTC ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 Threshold Reached: 2025 Nov 12 0305 UTC Synoptic Period: 0300-0600 UTC Active Warning: Yes NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur. Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible. Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2025 Nov 12 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 12-Nov 14 2025 is 8.00 (NOAA Scale
G4).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 12-Nov 14 2025

             Nov 12       Nov 13       Nov 14
00-03UT       5.00 (G1)    6.67 (G3)    4.67 (G1)
03-06UT       7.33 (G3)    6.33 (G2)    4.00     
06-09UT       6.00 (G2)    6.00 (G2)    3.33     
09-12UT       4.67 (G1)    4.67 (G1)    3.67     
12-15UT       4.33         4.00         3.33     
15-18UT       8.00 (G4)    3.33         3.00     
18-21UT       7.67 (G4)    4.33         3.00     
21-00UT       7.00 (G3)    4.67 (G1)    3.33     

Rationale: CME activity from 09-11 Nov is likely to cause G1-G4
(Minor-Severe) levels on 12 Nov, G1-G3 (Minor-Strong) storm levels on 13
Nov and G1 (Minor) levels early on 14 Nov.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
above S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 12-Nov 14 2025

              Nov 12  Nov 13  Nov 14
S1 or greater   99%     75%     55%

Rationale: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue
above the S1 (Minor) threshold through 13 Nov, with S2 levels possible
through 12 Nov. Further enhancements are possible with the arrival of
the 09-11 Nov CMEs on 11 and 12 Nov.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R3 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Nov 11 2025 1004 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 12-Nov 14 2025

              Nov 12        Nov 13        Nov 14
R1-R2           85%           85%           85%
R3 or greater   55%           55%           55%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected, with
further R3 (Strong) activity likely on 12-14 Nov due to the flare
potential of Region 4274.

:Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2025 Nov 12 0030 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 12-Nov 14 2025 is 8.00 (NOAA Scale G4). NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 12-Nov 14 2025 Nov 12 Nov 13 Nov 14 00-03UT 5.00 (G1) 6.67 (G3) 4.67 (G1) 03-06UT 7.33 (G3) 6.33 (G2) 4.00 06-09UT 6.00 (G2) 6.00 (G2) 3.33 09-12UT 4.67 (G1) 4.67 (G1) 3.67 12-15UT 4.33 4.00 3.33 15-18UT 8.00 (G4) 3.33 3.00 18-21UT 7.67 (G4) 4.33 3.00 21-00UT 7.00 (G3) 4.67 (G1) 3.33 Rationale: CME activity from 09-11 Nov is likely to cause G1-G4 (Minor-Severe) levels on 12 Nov, G1-G3 (Minor-Strong) storm levels on 13 Nov and G1 (Minor) levels early on 14 Nov. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was above S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 12-Nov 14 2025 Nov 12 Nov 13 Nov 14 S1 or greater 99% 75% 55% Rationale: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue above the S1 (Minor) threshold through 13 Nov, with S2 levels possible through 12 Nov. Further enhancements are possible with the arrival of the 09-11 Nov CMEs on 11 and 12 Nov. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R3 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Nov 11 2025 1004 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 12-Nov 14 2025 Nov 12 Nov 13 Nov 14 R1-R2 85% 85% 85% R3 or greater 55% 55% 55% Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected, with further R3 (Strong) activity likely on 12-14 Nov due to the flare potential of Region 4274.

Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.

Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.

Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.

Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.

Aurora Forecast Update for 2025-11-12T03:20:14Z

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2025 Nov 12 0305 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0300-0600 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor
Additional Details Here.

12.11.2025 03:20 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 15    ๐Ÿ” 7    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 1
Space Weather Message Code: ALTK08
Serial Number: 53
Issue Time: 2025 Nov 12 0122 UTC

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 8, 9-
 Threshold Reached: 2025 Nov 12 0121 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0000-0300 UTC
 
Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G4 - Severe

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 45 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Possible widespread voltage control problems and some protective systems may mistakenly trip out key assets from the power grid. Induced pipeline currents intensify.
Spacecraft - Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low earth orbit satellites, and tracking and orientation problems may occur.
Navigation - Satellite navigation (GPS) degraded or inoperable for hours.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation sporadic or blacked out.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as Alabama and northern California.

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK08 Serial Number: 53 Issue Time: 2025 Nov 12 0122 UTC ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 8, 9- Threshold Reached: 2025 Nov 12 0121 UTC Synoptic Period: 0000-0300 UTC Active Warning: Yes NOAA Scale: G4 - Severe NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 45 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. Induced Currents - Possible widespread voltage control problems and some protective systems may mistakenly trip out key assets from the power grid. Induced pipeline currents intensify. Spacecraft - Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low earth orbit satellites, and tracking and orientation problems may occur. Navigation - Satellite navigation (GPS) degraded or inoperable for hours. Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation sporadic or blacked out. Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as Alabama and northern California.

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2025 Nov 12 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 12-Nov 14 2025 is 8.00 (NOAA Scale
G4).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 12-Nov 14 2025

             Nov 12       Nov 13       Nov 14
00-03UT       5.00 (G1)    6.67 (G3)    4.67 (G1)
03-06UT       7.33 (G3)    6.33 (G2)    4.00     
06-09UT       6.00 (G2)    6.00 (G2)    3.33     
09-12UT       4.67 (G1)    4.67 (G1)    3.67     
12-15UT       4.33         4.00         3.33     
15-18UT       8.00 (G4)    3.33         3.00     
18-21UT       7.67 (G4)    4.33         3.00     
21-00UT       7.00 (G3)    4.67 (G1)    3.33     

Rationale: CME activity from 09-11 Nov is likely to cause G1-G4
(Minor-Severe) levels on 12 Nov, G1-G3 (Minor-Strong) storm levels on 13
Nov and G1 (Minor) levels early on 14 Nov.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
above S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 12-Nov 14 2025

              Nov 12  Nov 13  Nov 14
S1 or greater   99%     75%     55%

Rationale: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue
above the S1 (Minor) threshold through 13 Nov, with S2 levels possible
through 12 Nov. Further enhancements are possible with the arrival of
the 09-11 Nov CMEs on 11 and 12 Nov.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R3 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Nov 11 2025 1004 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 12-Nov 14 2025

              Nov 12        Nov 13        Nov 14
R1-R2           85%           85%           85%
R3 or greater   55%           55%           55%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected, with
further R3 (Strong) activity likely on 12-14 Nov due to the flare
potential of Region 4274.

:Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2025 Nov 12 0030 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 12-Nov 14 2025 is 8.00 (NOAA Scale G4). NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 12-Nov 14 2025 Nov 12 Nov 13 Nov 14 00-03UT 5.00 (G1) 6.67 (G3) 4.67 (G1) 03-06UT 7.33 (G3) 6.33 (G2) 4.00 06-09UT 6.00 (G2) 6.00 (G2) 3.33 09-12UT 4.67 (G1) 4.67 (G1) 3.67 12-15UT 4.33 4.00 3.33 15-18UT 8.00 (G4) 3.33 3.00 18-21UT 7.67 (G4) 4.33 3.00 21-00UT 7.00 (G3) 4.67 (G1) 3.33 Rationale: CME activity from 09-11 Nov is likely to cause G1-G4 (Minor-Severe) levels on 12 Nov, G1-G3 (Minor-Strong) storm levels on 13 Nov and G1 (Minor) levels early on 14 Nov. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was above S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 12-Nov 14 2025 Nov 12 Nov 13 Nov 14 S1 or greater 99% 75% 55% Rationale: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue above the S1 (Minor) threshold through 13 Nov, with S2 levels possible through 12 Nov. Further enhancements are possible with the arrival of the 09-11 Nov CMEs on 11 and 12 Nov. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R3 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Nov 11 2025 1004 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 12-Nov 14 2025 Nov 12 Nov 13 Nov 14 R1-R2 85% 85% 85% R3 or greater 55% 55% 55% Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected, with further R3 (Strong) activity likely on 12-14 Nov due to the flare potential of Region 4274.

Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.

Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.

Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.

Map from NOAA titled showing North America and the North Pole with a color gradient overlay of aurora likelihood.

Aurora Forecast Update for 2025-11-12T01:30:26Z

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 8, 9-
Threshold Reached: 2025 Nov 12 0121 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0000-0300 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G4 - Severe
Additional Details Here.

12.11.2025 01:30 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 58    ๐Ÿ” 30    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 8

Judge Dugan is a state judge. The trial is in federal court.

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Oh look at youโ€ฆ

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The only way out is through โค๏ธ

๐Ÿชถ

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I'm kindof emotional about it.

50% speed. Narrative video in next post ๐Ÿชถ

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Pelicans falling out of the sky, Halloween edition.

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Preview
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Or you can give cash to a local food pantry or my favorite charity:
www.hungertaskforce.org

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I was hoping that a live hearing on four daysโ€™ notice would be something exciting, but alas working out the logistics of a preliminary injunction hearingโ€ฆ. Of course, one could totally wear a costume to that.

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Trademark Status & Document Retrieval

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tsdr.uspto.gov#caseNumber=7...

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Young Cooperโ€™s hawk sitting on a birdbath

๐Ÿชถ

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@crliro is following 20 prominent accounts