Wilson Ricks

Alex Epstein bitching about how the new bill doesn't really repeal IRA clean energy credits

You love to see it:)

it’s pretty wild that the nation’s first climate law is headed towards a chainsaw and the only people talking about it here are wonks

Looks like transferability of tax credits is maintained.

Foreign Entity of Concern language is substantively different from House bill, but still applied throughout. Critical question: is this workable for industry to comply with? Safe harbor language clarified (good). Stay tuned...

What does the future of enhanced geothermal power generation look like?

Fervo offered an update to partners and investors at its #capeconnect event today, showcasing progress on its 100MW Cape Station project in UT.

I tagged along and I learned a lot. Some highlights based on my notes follow… 🔌💡

Fervo Energy Drills 15,000-FT, 500°F Geothermal Well, Pushing the Envelope… | Tim Latimer | 16 comments Excited to announce Fervo Energy's latest field results, where we have set a new standard for deep geothermal well drilling with the Sugarloaf Appraisal well: 15,000+ feet, 500°F. All in just 16 d...

The advanced geothermal company Fervo says it drilled a 15,700 foot well and reached temperatures of 500°F (260°C) in just 16 days of drilling.

That’s a big improvement from last year, when it drilled an 8000 ft well and reached 370°F temps in 41 days.

www.linkedin.com/posts/timlat...

‘Half the tree of life’: ecologists’ horror as nature reserves are emptied of insects A new point in history has been reached, entomologists say, as climate-led species’ collapse moves up the food chain even in supposedly protected regions free of pesticides

“We know a number of entomologists. One of our very good friends now does not have the emotional courage to hang up a sheet to collect moths at night. It is too devastating to see how few there are.”

Just deeply, deeply alarming

www.theguardian.com/environment/...

In particular, elimination of clean electricity tax credits would remove a key driver of early EGS adoption and reduce the long-run benefits of successful scaleup. It is critical that these supports remain in place if emerging technologies like EGS are to achieve their full potential.

Long-term outcomes are sensitive to near-term deployment. Our findings suggest that efforts to facilitate early deployment and better understand uncertainties in enhanced geothermal’s cost and learning potential should be key near-term policy and development priorities.

Such a large role depends on substantial reductions in the cost of EGS wellfields, which we argue must be driven largely by advances in reservoir design.

...EGS could plausibly grow to contribute up to a fifth of total US electricity generation by 2050 and drastically reduce the cost electricity generation and decarbonization even east of the Mississippi – a much larger role for the technology than has been previously assumed.

We find that if a) EGS performance continues to improve incrementally in the near-term, b) supportive federal policies remain in place, and c) EGS costs fall with scale at a rate similar to unconventional oil and gas...

This means that we can explore the conditions under which EGS (or its competitors) could achieve ‘commercial liftoff’ through a virtuous cycle of increasing deployment and falling costs, and the long-run implications for the US electricity sector if it is able to do so.

This analysis uses an ‘experience curves’ framework to model the evolution of costs for EGS and other emerging technologies over time, assuming that – like wind, solar, batteries, and unconventional oil and gas before them – the cost of these technologies will fall with increasing deployment.

It first leverages data from recent pilot projects to develop the first empirically-grounded near-term cost projections for EGS power in the US, then uses these as inputs to an electricity system capacity expansion model to explore potential adoption pathways for EGS over the coming decades.

This paper builds on prior work to address two key questions: where and under what conditions could EGS deliver cost-competitive power in the near term, and to what extent could it contribute to electricity generation nationwide if it can be successfully brought to scale?

I am happy to announce that the final piece of my doctoral work on next-generation geothermal technologies has been accepted for publication as a research article in 𝘑𝘰𝘶𝘭𝘦, with an open-access manuscript available at doi.org/10.5281/zeno...

PJM gets a lot more (still deserved) attention on the subject, but Bonneville Power Authority has been absolutely abysmal at connecting clean power in Oregon and Washington. Just ONE project has gotten approved in the last decade, and advertised wait time is 15 years!

Everyone says enhanced geothermal is the next fracking. That's only a little "bit" true.

The shale fracking boom was a product of its unique market structure. Enhanced geothermal is very different.

Latest from me and @buddyyakov.bsky.social at CPE—here's what a geothermal boom *really* requires:

Houston geothermal company Fervo to sell power from Utah project to Shell Energy Fervo Energy, a Houston-based geothermal company, will upsize its Cape Station project in Utah to 500 megawatts.

Some big Fervo Energy news today. We’re excited to welcome Shell as a new customer at Project Cape. And announce that we are upsizing the project by 100 MW to 500 MW, using the same number of planned wells, due to productivity breakthroughs we have achieved.
www.houstonchronicle.com/business/ene...

WoodMac releases it's latest US wind market report. www.woodmac.com/press-releas...

Here's the good, bad and ugly...
(mini 🧵)
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And like half of the private foreign aid is just Bill Gates. For all the criticism of Effective Altruism, private philanthropy really does suck at allocating resources where they're needed most (total US charitable giving is $550bn/yr)

Next-generation geothermal energy has a number of advantages in meeting growing US electricity demand from data centers. Our recent analysis shows it could economically meet up to 64% of this expected electricity demand growth by the early 2030s. Learn more: rhg.com/research/geo...

YouTube video by Energy Innovation: Policy and Technology Webinar: Grid Reliability in the Clean Energy Transition

Thanks a million to @ricoconnell.bsky.social @wilsonar.bsky.social and Julia Matevosyan for joining @sarabaldwin.bsky.social and me for a discussion on grid reliability in the clean energy transition today!! Check out the conversation here

Welcome! You are invited to join a webinar: Grid Reliability in the Clean Energy Transition. After registering, you will receive a confirmation email about joining the webinar. Join Energy Innovation and GridLab on March 26, 2 pm ET for a virtual discussion with grid reliability experts to explore how clean energy makes the grid more reliable and affordable, while also ensur...

Come hear @michelle-solomon.bsky.social @ricoconnell.bsky.social @sarabaldwin.bsky.social @wilsonar.bsky.social and Julia Matevosyan talk about grid reliability in a clean energy grid this Wednesday! energyinnovation.zoom.us/webinar/regi...

WA’s natural gas initiative unconstitutional, King County judge rules Washington voters in November narrowly approved I-2066 to protect access to natural gas. Here's what to know about a judge's ruling on its constitutionality.

Great victory for communities, clean air, and climate action in WA State: Superior Court judge rules that I 2066 is unconstitutional. Decision leaves in place energy efficiency and gas appliance standards that made WA a national leader. www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news...

...so reducing barriers to development in the state (particularly in the high-risk exploration phase) could be critical to unlocking EGS as an extremely competitive resource in CA and a viable one nationwide!

We found as much in a recent paper on EGS long-term deployment pathways: early deployment in California at the >10 GE could enable learning-based cost reductions that make EGS competitive even as far as the US east coast
zenodo.org/records/1382...

For emerging techs like EGS this is mostly fine for the time being (Fervo says they can build up to 4 GW at their first project site in Utah), but to really hit massive scale and unlock the long term potential of the technology you need CA's market and resource base

California has some of the best geothermal resources in the world and very supportive demand-side policy and market conditions, but my personal experience has been that developers are generally staying away from the state due to permitting challenges and risk

Haven't seen any posts about it, but this CEQA categorical exclusion for geothermal exploration in California seems like a big deal!

legiscan.com/CA/text/AB52...

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