Michael Mullany

This report says its technomics are based on those from Franzmann et al. (2025) - but those cost estimates are 2050 projections - not current costs. So what's the deal?

NOAA announces planned rollback of North Atlantic right whale protections There are fewer than 380 right whales left in the world, with roughly 70 females capable of bearing young.

NOAA announces planned rollback of North Atlantic right whale protections www.mainepublic.org/environment-...

Reference:

Limberger, J., Calcagno, P., Manzella, A., Trumpy, E., Boxem, T., Pluymaekers, M. and van Wees, J.D., 2014. Assessing the prospective resource base for enhanced geothermal systems in Europe. Geothermal Energy Science, 2(1), pp.55-71.

Estimated LCOE maps for geothermal electricity for (a) 2020, (b) 2030 and (c) 2050. [Limberger et al. 2014.]

LCOE reductions over time is driven by improved drilling productivity.

Current and near term geothermal LCOE remains high in most geo's.

(erratum - this should be 10 inches, not 10cm)

Great review!

So - YMMV

This model seems to underestimate current drilling costs by about half - which is not crazy given how old the estimates are.

Which is a global assessment and its LCOE estimates are based on a 2050 target cost, not a current cost.

In addition, the drilling cost estimate formulae come from a 2013 Department of Energy spreadsheet model that in turn is based on cost estimates from 2006 + an inflator.

So I tracked down where their assumptions are coming from. The whole analysis is really based on this paper

Franzmann, D., Heinrichs, H. and Stolten, D., 2025. Global geothermal electricity potentials: A technical, economic, and thermal renewability assessment. Renewable Energy, 250, p.123199.

Yup.

I read it fairly quickly but I think it’s very optimistic and a bit confused.

It conflates the current cost of hydrothermal from places like Iceland and California with what geothermal would cost in most of Europe.

I’d like to see their model assumptions - they don’t seem based.

Anything is possible but the company has not been forthcoming with performance data.

The only reason we know the low output of the first well is through German regulatory data.

Flexibility, Not Capacity, Will Decide Renewable Energy’s Future Renewable energy has become so abundant that it is cannibalizing its own value. The solution lies in changing how and when electricity is consumed, stored, and moved.

Good overview article from BCG - interesting how Finland added 3GW of electric boilers to help balance supply and demand in a high renewables grid.

www.bcg.com/publications...

All the useful idiots talking about the fragility of the renewable energy supply chain may be about to get a lesson in how vastly more fragile the fossil supply chain is.

Yeah this is favorable geology - open loop. Wells are drilled but they haven't reported generation yet. Don't know the drill cost - one was to 5km and one to 2.5km (if I remember correctly)

Intro to Fracked Geothermal Energy Impact: 3% Global Warming Potential (GWP) Technology Maturity: Scaled/High Cost This is the third article of a series on the climate technologies shown in my ClimateTech Market Map, with a deeper dive...

And since this is getting some views - here is a piece I wrote on the basics of enhanced geothermal if you want to learn a bit more on the economics.

www.linkedin.com/pulse/note-f...

When Next-Generation Geothermal Meets First-of-a-Kind Reality - CleanTechnica Closed-loop geothermal promised scalable, firm energy. Early data from Eavor’s German project shows where physics, cost, and drilling risk intersect.

Michael Barnard (who I think is too negative on geothermal for electricity) - wrote this on Eavor specifically:

cleantechnica.com/2026/01/15/w...

More on the physics:

www.resfrac.com/blog/why-dee...

Eavor's pilot well in North Germany is currently producing at a rate of 0.5MW after spending likely $100-200M drilling the initial wells. It *might* increase to 6MW with more drilling.

Fervo is likely in the $150-$250/MWh using 10cm diameter fracked geothermal in shallow Utah hot rock (180+ degrees at 3.5km) - with favorable heat recharge and large fracked volumes. (And experienced, very productive drilling crews.)

Closed loop geothermal is demonstrably uneconomic for electricity generation and probably uneconomic for heat generation in almost all of Europe.

If you don't want to frack (and I think you do) - you *have* to find natural geology with good circulation (e.g. the South German geothermal belt).

To Extract Hot Water From the Earth, a Plan to Pipe It In First

This poorly informed nytimes article on closed loop geothermal is a perfect example of why you need specialist reporters covering energy topics or else you just get warmed over regurgitation of company talking points.

www.nytimes.com/2026/02/28/b...

Overlooked and overexploited: Extensive conversion of grasslands and wetlands driven by global food, feed, and bioenergy demand | PNAS Natural ecosystems are increasingly threatened by global agricultural supply chains, and a narrow policy focus on forests has fueled agricultural e...

Overlooked and overexploited: Extensive conversion of grasslands and wetlands driven by global food, feed, and bioenergy demand @pnas.org 🌐 www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...

Boston Metal has a well progressed unique tech for electrochemical steel making

Yes it’s raised a lot of capital and progress has been slower than hoped - but it works and could decarbonize the global steel industry.

Gotta fund the Florida sugar barons so they can keep their SuperPac donations up.

Not a great take since it fails to acknowledge how risky relying on imported LNG is.

One of the small joys of life: finding out that the old shoe that fit you perfectly hasn't been discontinued, so you can get another pair :)

Geothermie vanuit geologisch perspectief | Energeia Zonne- en windenergie zijn dagelijks in het nieuws. Hun aandeel in de energiemix groeit snel. Maar waarom horen we zo weinig over geothermie? Geothermie is groen, regelbaar, veilig en kan op veel plaa...

Great perspective on Dutch geothermal energy strategy from two ex-oil + gas authors.

> Focus on district heating schemes from known-good shallow-ish geothermal.
> Stop wasting money on deep closed loop hopium projects.

(Google translate from Dutch)

energeia-nl.translate.goog/geothermie-v...

Data from this presentation by Bundesverband Geothermie

www.stichtingdap.nl/wp-content/u...