Agathe Demarais

Trump’s “peace plan” envisions the US taking over Russia’s hundreds of billions of dollars in frozen assets! THAT may be motivation in demanding it be approved in days—to prevent Europe from seizing the assets!

A big, beautiful European strategy for Trumponomics Since the return of U.S. President Donald Trump to the White House in January, European policymakers have been struggling to sketch a sensible response to Trumponomics – an unpredictable…

🫖Join us for tea in Berlin on 2 December to discuss how Europeans can sketch a sensible response to Trumponomics together with @agathedemarais.bsky.social and @jpuglierin.bsky.social.

📍Register here: ecfr.eu/event/a-big-...

How Ireland became the weak spot in Europe’s defences With few ships and limited intelligence-sharing, some say the country cannot hope to protect itself or its infrastructure

Must read FT piece today on neutral Ireland, the soft underbelly of European defence

By @judewebber.bsky.social and @helenwarrell.bsky.social

US economy is going through AI boom-fuelled productivity spurt
• In first half of 2025 output per hour of labour in durable goods sector grew by record-high 4.9% on annualised basis
• Productivity gains are mostly concentrated in high-tech, hardware sectors that are part of broader AI push

Beste optie voor Europa om Trumps onzalige vredesplan voor #Oekraïne onderuit te halen: de Russische miljarden inpikken

Wrote about this here. The "anomaly" of the divergence between hard indicators of economic performance and soft indicators of sentiment disappears once if you include higher interest rates, leading to higher mortgage and car payments, in inflation. www.economist.com/finance-and-...

The U.S.-Russia Plan Gives Trump a $300 Billion Signing Bonus If Europe moves fast to seize Russian assets, it may be able to sink this bad deal.

The fate of the U.S.-Russia plan hinges on the EU’s ability to swiftly seize Russia’s frozen assets, writes columnist @agathedemarais.bsky.social.

Sur l’Ukraine, le climat ou la santé, Donald Trump écarte l’expertise « La paix ne sera pas construite par des diplomates ou des politiciens en échec, vivant dans un pays imaginaire », a tweeté le vice-président Vance pour expliquer la mise à l’écart des professionnels,...

Trump ne fait confiance qu’à un petit cercle de conseillers, issu comme lui du monde des affaires. Poutine aussi. La négation de l’expertise est la marque de notre époque, pas forcément la garantie du succès. Ma chronique Géopolitique du 7/11 @franceinter www.radiofrance.fr/franceinter/...

As I report in this morning’s Europe Express, many EU leaders made @agathedemarais.bsky.social’s point forcefully at an emergency summit yesterday… but Belgium is still refusing to lift its veto on the frozen assets loan plan

on.ft.com/3XOnviR

Nicolas Guillou, French ICC judge sanctioned by the US: 'You are effectively blacklisted by much of the world's banking system' Six judges and three prosecutors at the International Criminal Court have been sanctioned by the Trump administration. In an interview with Le Monde, Guillou discusses the impact of these measures on ...

This story should be covered waaaaayy more than it is.

The US has sanctioned six judges if the international criminal court ICC, because Trump didn’t like them issuing arrest warrants for Benjamin Netanyahu and former Minister of Defense Yoav Gallant.

www.lemonde.fr/en/internati...

The U.S.-Russia Plan Gives Trump a $300 Billion Signing Bonus If Europe moves fast to seize Russian assets, it may be able to sink this bad deal.

The US-Russia plan includes a $300bn signing bonus for the US in the form of Russia's central bank frozen assets - for @foreignpolicy.com I outline how the EU could curb Trump’s interest in the deal if the bloc rushes to seize these assets before America grabs them
foreignpolicy.com/2025/11/24/t...

Absolutely, I've long had reservations (and still do) about this course of action - yet I feel that we're now trying to figure out what the least bad option is amid an ocean of terrible options

The U.S.-Russia Plan Gives Trump a $300 Billion Signing Bonus If Europe moves fast to seize Russian assets, it may be able to sink this bad deal.

The US-Russia plan includes a $300bn signing bonus for the US in the form of Russia's central bank frozen assets - for @foreignpolicy.com I outline how the EU could curb Trump’s interest in the deal if the bloc rushes to seize these assets before America grabs them
foreignpolicy.com/2025/11/24/t...

Lutnick Says EU Must Change Digital Rules for Steel Tariff Deal US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said the European Union needs to change its digital regulations in order to get a deal to lower steel and aluminum tariffs.

www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

US-EU trade talks off to a good start I see.

Latest wave of US sanctions appear to have pushed China to curb imports of seaborne Russian oil
• US/UK sanctions on major Chinese refinery of Shandong Yulong Petrochemical is key driver for drop
• New sanctions on Lukoil & Rosneft are other key driver behind drop of Russian oil shipments to China

In the new scramble for Africa’s resources, Europe tries to right old wrongs Ursula von der Leyen says African countries should benefit from resource extraction — but Brussels has yet to deliver on that promise.

NEW: Ursula von der Leyen says African countries should benefit from resource extraction — but Brussels has yet to deliver on that promise.

www.politico.eu/article/in-t...

Heli Simola and I wrote about the effect of sanctions on unit prices of Russia’s imports. I.e., how much does Russia have to pay more for goods EU & co have sanctioned, when it imports them from China, Türkiye and other countries?
@bofit.suomenpankki.fi DP 8/2025
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www.bofit.fi/en/

EU to tighten investment rules to stand up to China Commission wants greater benefits for local workers and technology transfers when foreign companies set up in bloc

The Commission looks set to push binding tech-transfer rules on Chinese FDI in strategic sector.

At this rate, the upcoming December package on the Industry Accelerator Act and the automotive package could end up being the most consequential EU industrial policy move in years.

on.ft.com/49He4Jr

Climate change kills
• Heat-related deaths now make up >3% of fatalities in 26 countries, mostly in African and Middle East countries
• Deaths from heat are still about tenth of those caused by cold, but models show temperature-related deaths (from heat & cold) will rise

From the US-Russia plan for Ukraine - US firms would get US$100bn in cash from Russia's frozen central bank reserves to invest in Ukraine's reconstruction, with the US (government) ultimately receiving 50% of the profits (US claims over Russia's frozen reserves amount to only US$5bn)

Brexit Hit to UK Economy Double Official Estimate, Study Finds Brexit has caused almost twice as much damage to the UK economy than estimated by official forecasts, according to new paper from a group of experts including a senior Bank of England economist.

"Brexit has caused almost twice as much damage to the UK economy than estimated by official forecasts. The 2016 vote to leave the EU has cost the country between 6% and 8% of GDP per person over the last decade, a hit of £180 billion ($235 billion) to £240 billion."

The Witkoff-Dmitriev peace plan annotated We now know a bit more about the process which led to the new peace plan and we now have a copy of its contents, to which I will turn soon.

The Witkoff-Dmitriev plan is even more amateurish than I imagined. It favours Russia although does contain elements that Russia will not like. Premature leaking means that it is no more than work in progress. Here is an annotated version (This is free). open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/t...?

Britain tries to reform global trade — without alienating Trump U.K. Ambassador Kumar Iyer’s vision for WTO reform centers on shaking up the way the 30-year-old watchdog handles disputes.

Nice try, but the UK is considered almost completely irrelevant in global trade policy. Lack ideas and expertise, wider context where maintaining connections with larger powers is the priority for growth in an increasingly coercive international order. www.politico.eu/article/uk-a...

From the US-Russia plan for Ukraine - US firms would get US$100bn in cash from Russia's frozen central bank reserves to invest in Ukraine's reconstruction, with the US (government) ultimately receiving 50% of the profits (US claims over Russia's frozen reserves amount to only US$5bn)

Brazil Draft COP30 Climate Deal Omits Plan to Exit Fossil Fuels Brazil presented the COP30 climate summit with a draft deal early Friday that omits any reference to exiting fossil fuels amid stiff resistance from producing countries, setting the stage for frantic ...

Brazil presented the #COP30 climate summit with a draft deal early Friday that omits any reference to exiting fossil fuels amid stiff resistance from producing countries, setting the stage for frantic final round of negotiations

More here 👇

www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Developing economies are increasingly critical to curb global CO2 emissions
• Emissions from middle- and lower-income economies are now higher than those of rich economies
• Most rich economies are reducing CO2 emissions, while those of developing economies are rising

KAL's cartoon in The Economist this week

China is the world's largest emitter of CO2, but the US retains top spot for emissions per capita
• Trump's love for fossil fuels and hostility to clean tech will slow down US green transition
• Trump has withdrawn from Paris deal, stopped climate data collection and cancelled clean tech projects

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