Agathe Demarais

US plan to impose US$100,000 fee on H1-B visas is sending shockwaves through Silicon Valley
• 141,000 new H-1B visas were issued last year, meaning US firms could face US$14bn annual price tag
• Move could discourage highly-skilled migrant from emigrating to the US, weighing on US economic prospects

Brussels seeks to convert Europe’s savers into investors [FREE TO READ] Commission wants countries to offer tax incentives to EU households who put their cash into stocks

Brussels seeks to convert Europe’s savers into investors, wants countries to offer tax incentives to EU households who put their cash into stocks

@paolatamma.bsky.social has the goods:

on.ft.com/488f0FS

China-Europe container rates have dropped back down to pre-Red Sea disruption levels
• Diversions are still taking place; 17 cargo ships traversed Suez Canal on Sep 21, vs. 47 at start of Dec 2023
• Tariff uncertainty is weighing on prices; Shanghai-Rotterdam spot rate has been down for eight weeks

By imposing conditions on someone accessing the asset (ie demanding Russia pays reparations, which have not been agreed nor can be imposed on Russia, to get access to its money), are you not in effect confiscating the asset? That's the question at the heart of the legality of the frozen asset debate

Self-promotion works, especially if you are bad at your job I have come across a recent paper that measures equity analysts self-representation on LinkedIn and the tone they use to describe their research and their views on LinkedIn and in the media.

Analysts who excel at self-promotion on LinkedIn are worse at their jobs, but experience the highest rates of promotion. klementoninvesting.substack.com/p/self-promo...

Financing the war is now one of Ukraine's main challenges
• Tax and domestic borrowing cover only core military spending, or about two-thirds of the budget
• Rosiest forecasts leave a US$45bn shortfall next year, with western support covering just US$27bn of that

Agathe Demarais, économiste : « Les Etats-Unis, plus que l’Europe, seront les grands perdants des guerres commerciales de Trump » TRIBUNE. Contrairement aux idées reçues, l’accord commercial entre l’UE et les Américains n’est pas si désastreux, analyse, dans une tribune au « Monde », l’économiste Agathe Demarais, qui a publié à…

L'accord commercial transatlantique de juillet pourrait ne pas être aussi désastreux qu'on le croit - dans cette tribune pour @lemonde.fr j'avance l'idée que l'économie américaine pourrait être la plus grande perdante des guerres commerciales de Trump

Unexpected Critics of Trump’s Attacks on Wind Energy: Oil Executives

“Not only does this inject significant uncertainty into the infrastructure development process, but it invariably increases the price of the projects and risks raising the cost of electricity, diminishing our ability to meet growing demand…”

www.nytimes.com/2025/09/27/b...

Taiwan Curbs Chip Exports to South Africa Over National Security Taiwan has imposed restrictions on the export of chips to South Africa over national security concerns, the first time it has used its semiconductor industry as a weapon against a country closely alli...

Weaponized interdependence spreads to third countries -- Taiwan uses chip dependence to strong arm South Africa.
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

As China keeps cutting US Treasury holdings, where are its investments going? With China’s holdings at their lowest since 2009, analysts said the country’s central bank could be turning to European assets and gold.

Views for SCMP: "China might also be increasing its holdings of the euro–given a rise in exports to Europe in recent months – as well as other currencies such as the British pound and Swiss franc, which could be contributing to the rise in its foreign exchange reserves."
www.scmp.com/economy/glob...

Agathe Demarais, économiste : « Les Etats-Unis, plus que l’Europe, seront les grands perdants des guerres commerciales de Trump » TRIBUNE. Contrairement aux idées reçues, l’accord commercial entre l’UE et les Américains n’est pas si désastreux, analyse, dans une tribune au « Monde », l’économiste Agathe Demarais, qui a publié à…

L'accord commercial transatlantique de juillet pourrait ne pas être aussi désastreux qu'on le croit - dans cette tribune pour @lemonde.fr j'avance l'idée que l'économie américaine pourrait être la plus grande perdante des guerres commerciales de Trump

Pro-EU party in Moldova set to win vote mired in claims of Russian interference The election was seen as critical for Moldova's EU path, and President Maia Sandu warned the country's future was in danger.

I'm finally looking forward to Russia's disinformation campaign no longer emailing us endless fake news videos about Moldova and Maia Sandu. Guess they won't be getting their bonuses
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

French economist Gabriel Zucman suggests taxing wealth over €100m at 2% per year
• France hosts highest number of billionaires among EU countries, but some could leave if tax is introduced
• Move could raise only €5bn/year (1.5% of fiscal revenues) and could disincentive investment in France

Wind and solar have now overtaken nuclear as the second largest source of US energy
• Clean energy (wind, solar, hydro) now accounts for around one quarter of the US energy mix, ahead of nuclear and coal
• Data are at odds with Trump's view that wind and solar are not sources of energy

Brussels pitches €140 billion loan to Ukraine based on Russia's assets Brussels believes it can issue a €140 billion loan to Ukraine using Russia's frozen assets without engaging in outright confiscation. #EuropeNews

The European Commission is pitching a highly innovative proposal to use the cash balances of Russia's frozen assets to issue a €140 billion loan to Ukraine.

Repayments will begin only when Russia agrees to provide war reparations.

Here's what we know. (It's very complex.)

Philanthropies Strike a Promising Deal to Turn Back H.I.V.

A deal to allow generic versions of HIV-prevention shots in lower income countries is fabulous news. Just $40/year (vs $28K in the US)

Great news, but as usual, middle-income nations with high poverty & lots of HIV are left out.

By @apoorvanyt.bsky.social
www.nytimes.com/2025/09/24/h...

Since 1970 income of French pensioners has grown far more quickly than that of workers
• French pensioners have exceptional feature for OECD standards—they earn more than working-age adults
• Rise in life expectancy will place burden on public finances through rise in health and pension spending

KAL's cartoon in The Economist this week

trump's attack on H-1B visas seems like a pretty terrible own-goal for America's research output

Interesting - in France shifting power use from heures pleines to heures creuses is a way of life for many households that EDF actively encourages; they even have a special rate whereby you face extortionate prices on 22 peak days/year in Winter in return for a 50% discount in the remaining 343 days

Despite US tariffs, Chinese ports and international cargo flights are busier than ever
• Rise in exports to Vietnam, for instance, suggests US-bound goods are rerouted to avoid US tariffs
• Rising sales to Europe and Australia also suggest Beijing found new buyers for many products

Russia to raise value added tax rate to 22% as war weighs on economy Finance ministry says funds will be mainly used to cover the country’s spiralling defence and security spending

"The step goes against Putin’s pledge not to raise taxes before 2030, but the finance ministry [said] the funds would be used to cover Russia’s spiralling defence expenditure, as well as for support for social spending. The Kremlin's revised plans point to a growing budget deficit"

The Extraordinary Rise of Electric Cars in Developing Countries Colin McKerracher, head of transport for BloombergNEF, joins Zero to discuss the latest global trends in electric-vehicle sales.

Don't sleep on the good news. This quarter, China will sell more electric cars than the US will sell all cars of any kind (EVs or gas-guzzling pick-up trucks).

The rise of EVs in developing countries from Nepal to Costa Rica is an extraordinary story. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Stephen Miran on interest rates Are big cuts needed?

This Unhedged analysis of Stephen Miran’s interest rate views by @robarmstrong.bsky.social is pretty illuminating more broadly on the Trump admin’s economic strategy www.ft.com/content/1641...

Europe’s Hippopotamus Strategy for Handling Trump EU policymakers should channel their inner naturalists as they adapt to Trumponomics.

No one knows whether Trump is about to charge or let go. But EU policymakers can sketch a coherent, pragmatic, and coolheaded response to Trump’s attacks, columnist @agathedemarais.bsky.social writes.

Russia's economy is in a standstill
• In July GDP grew by just 0.4% year on year; PMI data suggest activity has been contracting for several months
• Data include activity of military sector, suggesting civilian economy has entered into a recession

EU to propose tariffs on Russian oil amid pressure from Trump Putting tariffs on Russian oil will make it increasingly expensive for Hungary and Slovakia to maintain their energy ties with Moscow. #EuropeNews

This would be something: tariffs that make Russian oil prohibitively expensive for Hungary and Slovakia

www.euronews.com/my-europe/20...

Europe’s Hippopotamus Strategy for Handling Trump EU policymakers should channel their inner naturalists as they adapt to Trumponomics.

Just like hippopotamuses, Trump's policies are unpredictable, fast-changing and baffling - in my latest piece for @foreignpolicy.com I argue that to try and manage Trump, EU leaders can channel their inner naturalists and draw five lessons from wild hippo encounters

Ukrainians find no concrete support in Donald Trump’s warm words US president’s claim that Kyiv could win back all its territory from Russia came with no economic or military help

“What is new in Trump’s statements made today or what do they mean for us? Absolutely nothing,” said Yaroslav Zheleznyak, a Ukrainian MP. “And what should we expect next? Also nothing.”

On the Ukrainian and Russian reactions to Trump’s messages.
w/ @maxseddon.bsky.social
on.ft.com/3IdFawr

China’s economy vs the world. With Michael Pettis Will China’s trade imbalance throw the world off-kilter?

I very much enjoyed my conversation with @michaelpettis.bsky.social, and so, I have no doubt, will you. www.ft.com/content/8ee5...