Agathe Demarais

I'm tired of analysts saying the tariffs haven't shown up in the data. It's not shown up in the *aggregate CPI*, but it's certainly shown up categories of CPI, PPI. And it's shown up in "big data" treatments, see Cavallo et al. for data through JULY 26:
www.pricinglab.org/files/Tracki... #econsky

My latest @nytopinion.nytimes.com attempts to answer, "The Tariffs Kicked In. The Sky Didn’t Fall. Were the Economists Wrong?"

In brief: the economy actually has slowed & inflation has picked up, as you would expect. Plus Trump called off some tariffs and lags.

www.nytimes.com/2025/07/31/o...

Safety of JN.1-Updated mRNA COVID-19 Vaccines This cohort study investigates the association between booster vaccinations containing the JN.1 lineage and 29 serious adverse events in Denmark.

Here you go Vinay.

"In this nationwide cohort study, no increased risk of 29 adverse events was observed after vaccination with the updated COVID-19 mRNA vaccine containing the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron JN.1 lineage in approximately 1 million adults. "

What opponents of the EU-US trade deal get wrong Internal reform matters more than external trade

“Instead of pointing fingers, the critics should roll up their sleeves.”

Our leader on the EU-US trade deal.
economist.com/leaders/2025...

Merci beaucoup ! ☺️

Selfreplay @bfmtv.com :
Les taxes payées par les entreprises internationales occidentales qui continuent d'opérer en Russie, ce sont 4 à 6 mois de bombardements russes sur l'Ukraine.
Avec un poke @agathedemarais.bsky.social

Some thoughts on the EU-US deal Another holiday edition

Some holiday thoughts on the EU-US "deal" ...

[something to do while the baby has a nap]

mostfavourednation.substack.com/p/some-thoug...

EU officials expect there to be a joint statement with the US on yesterday's deal - not-legally binding.

This is expected to be along the lines of the US-Indonesia statement from roughly a week ago.

Study finds no evidence aluminum salts in vaccines are tied to higher risk of asthma, other childhood diseases A new large study from Denmark finds no evidence that aluminum salts used in vaccines are tied to a higher risk of childhood diseases.

A very big study from Denmark generates some reassuring findings about aluminum in childhood vaccines, finding no association between aluminum and development of a number of illnesses, including asthma. www.statnews.com/2025/07/14/a...

Thread 🧵(1/6)

This is purely informative, I am not taking sides.

If you are considering age verification with bsky. This is what you are giving and to whom (assumes credit card verification). This is info only, the choice to do it is yours.

i have drawn a picture:

EU prepares €100bn no-deal plan to match Trump’s threat of 30% tariffs If agreed by member states, levies could be imposed on US goods from aircraft to whiskey from 7 August

EU ambassadors get latest debrief from Maros Sefcovic after call with Howard Lutnick. EU now combining both lists of tariffs to send, 'clearer, stronger' signal to Trump. Some argue what's needed is face to face w Merz, Macron, Meloni. Trump in Scotland at w/end
www.theguardian.com/business/202...

How China Curbed Its Oil Addiction—and Blunted a U.S. Pressure Point The Chinese government is boosting domestic production and the EV industry in the name of national security. There are 14 million chargers nationwide.

China's counterpoint to drill baby drill. www.wsj.com/world/china/...

Face à Musk, l’Europe au pied du mur : “On ne peut pas passer des années à élaborer du droit pour ne pas l’appliquer” Alors que la haine et les fake news se multiplient sur X, et que son IA Grok profère des propos antisémites, la France a lancé une enquête sur le réseau d’Elon Musk pour “ingérence étrangère”. Le dépu...

X visé par une enquête préliminaire pour des soupçons d'ingérence étrangère, Grok qui vomit des propos antisémites... Pour @bothorel.bsky.social, à l'origine du signalement à la justice, "on ne peut pas passer des années à élaborer du droit pour ne pas l'appliquer".

www.telerama.fr/debats-repor...

Fusion energy start-up claims to have cracked alchemy San Francisco start-up says modified fusion process could be used to produce gold from mercury

Two FT stories on how science is messing with jewellery:
- Lab-grown diamonds are now sold for 7% of "natural" ones, a single firm can make 100,000 carats a month
- Particle accelerators will soon transform mercury into gold in serious quantities
www.ft.com/content/2a8d...
www.ft.com/content/06f9...

Big news in EU China relations this morning.

The EU has passed its 18 package of sanctions after Slovakia dropped its veto.

2 Chinese banks to be listed. In Brussels this month, Wang Yi repeatedly warned Kallas that China would retaliate if this happened.

Watch this space...

State Dept. Layoffs Hit Russia and Ukraine Analysts

State Dept. Layoffs Hit Russia and Ukraine Analysts www.nytimes.com/2025/07/15/u...

The Enshittification of American Power First Google and Facebook, then the world. Under Trump 2.0, US statecraft is starting to mimic the worst tendencies of Big Tech.

“Trumpworld understands that—in controlling the infrastructure layer of global finance, technology, and security—it has vast machineries of coercion at its disposal…”

Remarkable @wired.com #analysis of #Trump, #tech & #geopolitics by Henry Farrell & Abraham L. Newman.

www.wired.com/story/enshit...

Despite self-sufficiency plans, China still relies on imports to access chip-making machinery
• China's imports of tools to make (lithography) or inspect (electron microscopes) chips keep rising
• Data highlighy EU's leverage over adversaries through control of tech chokepoints like ASML or Zeiss

Iran provides ~15% of China's crude imports, highlighting Beijing's stake in US-Iran developments
• Real figure could be higher, as portion of trade goes through Malaysia to escape US scrutiny
• Relaxation of US sanctions on Iran's oil exports would cut discount that Iran extends to Chinese clients

Plan to boost returns from Russian assets ‘expropriation’, warns Euroclear Clearing house chief executive warns against EU plan to raise more money for Ukraine by investing in riskier assets

Euroclear euroclearly wants legal indemnity/insurance over any confiscation of the frozen Russian assets. (Including putting them in a SPV to invest proceeds forhigher returns.) on.ft.com/4lTGeDI

One Big Beautiful Bill looks set to widen US fiscal deficit by US$3-4trn by 2034
• Impact of tax cuts, which are hard to reverse, will be only partially offset by cost-saving measures like IRA repeal
• Bigger debt load could reduce US GDP by ~2% by 2050 as higher interest rates hurt private firms

Donald Trump threatens 100% secondary tariffs on Russia US president seeks to step up pressure on Moscow to reach a peace deal with Ukraine

Donald Trump has threatened Russia with 100 per cent secondary tariffs if the war in Ukraine does not end soon, as he announced an agreement with Nato allies to send more weapons to Kyiv. on.ft.com/4kCokUO via @financialtimes.com

Asian economies are leading the way for electrification efforts
• Success of green transition will hinge on electrification as many clean tech goods like EVs run on electricity
• Growth in share of electricity in energy mix has stalled in many rich economies, such as the US and the UK

Victory for Trump as EU backs down on digital taxes in next budget Shelving the plan could help EU persuade the U.S. to give it a more favorable trade deal and comes just two months after the Commission suggested it.

Another potential EU own resource quietly taken off the table.

No surprise, given the state of transatlantic talks - but underscores how difficult closing the EU's budget gap will be without higher national contributions.
www.politico.eu/article/vict...

Opinion | We Warned About the First China Shock. The Next One Will Be Worse.

1/US policy seems uniquely positioned to lose the China 2.0 shock -- undermining economic relations with allies, disinvesting from chokepoint technologies, and opening up space for China to bolster its international economic ties.
www.nytimes.com/2025/07/14/o...

US foreign aid budget looks set to halve between 2024 and 2026
• Trump's cuts will push down level of US aid to slightly below US$30bn per year, roughly on a par with Germany's
• Poor economies face double whammy in form of reduced US aid and threat of prohibitive US tariffs

Trump told reporters lies about U.S. aid to Ukraine. He claims the U.S. spent $350 billion, versus $100 billion for Europe. The real figures: the U.S. spent $133 billion, Europe $182 billion (up to April 30). Established by the independent Kiel Institute in Germany. www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-a...

Europe should shrug off Trump’s tariff threats Not all provocations require a reaction — and sometimes showing courage entails doing nothing.

The longer one watches Trump’s tariff farce, the more I think @agathedemarais.bsky.social is right. Do nothing. Just ignore it. Wave it away. (Still plenty of time to hit back once the dust has settled.) www.politico.eu/article/euro...

Beyond money, Europe's re-industrialisation efforts also require (trained) workers
• Number of unfilled defence jobs per unemployed person is high, signalling shortage of skilled workers
• Upskilling programmes take time and they can become reality only if EU defence firms receive solid orders

US trade deficit with the EU has climbed to record-high levels since Trump's return to White House
• US trade deficit with EU widened by 97% year on year in first quarter of 2025, to US$96bn
• Data highlight how US firms frontloaded imports ahead of implementation of Trump's tariffs