Michael Paarlberg

Geez. I cover implicit association tests in my research methods class to demonstrate how they are flawed. Even doing this probably gets us flagged.

35% of all Christians in the US are evangelical. If you only count white evangelicals, the percentage drops to 21%.

There are millions of American Catholics, mainline Protestants, Mormons, Orthodox Christians and others. Evangelical Protestants are not the majority of Christians in the US.

Trump Orders Pentagon to Prepare to Target Latin American Drug Cartels Options under discussion are focused on special forces operations, intelligence support and precision targeting, a senior U.S. official said.

Military force won’t work because DTOs like cartels are made up of shifting business arrangements between multiple illicit rackets specializing in production, trafficking, extortion etc. They are not unitary corporations, much less enemy states with a capital you can capture.

It should be stressed that most Christians don’t believe this. I was raised Methodist and was never taught Biblical literalism nor that the Apocalypse was coming soon. Yet the crazies who are obsessed with the Book of Revelation and converting Jews are directing US foreign policy.

Join us in welcoming our new Senior Non-Resident Fellow,
@mpaarlberg.bsky.social

Michael brings deep expertise on Latin America, migration, and transnational security, with a focus on how U.S. foreign policy shapes conditions across the region.

internationalpolicy.org/about/#micha...

EE. UU. respalda reforma en El Salvador que beneficia a Bukele y niega que se parezca a una dictadura El presidente Nayib Bukele podrá reelegirse indefinidamente luego de una reforma aprobada en la Asamblea Legislativa de El Salvador.

State Department endorses Bukele’s constitutional reforms to allow his indefinite reelection. I wonder if Rubio will declare his equal support for Daniel Ortega, Evo Morales, and the late Hugo Chávez.

Maybe next PwC will draw up a plan for DOD to pay soldiers in comped hotel stays and show tickets

It’s understandable that incumbents in both parties would be comfortable with redistricting, but being safer in general elections only moves competition to the primaries where they will face challengers from the base. We will see two, three, many Mamdanis. I wonder if Dems have thought this through.

No, I think I won’t. Biden actively contributed to the downfall of El Salvador’s democracy. His naivety in other areas of foreign policy, namely Gaza, helped Trump win, incidentally.

By now the failure of “Hug Bibi” is widely acknowledged. But Biden also had a “Hug Bukele” policy that was equally naive and also disastrous.

The message couldn’t have been clearer. By sending Mayorkas, Biden told Bukele: Play ball with us on immigration, and we’ll endorse your unconstitutional reelection and stay quiet about all your other power grabs.

Let’s not forget that it was Biden’s policy of accommodation to Bukele that enabled this. The last admin halted criticism of his abuses of power, helped secure him a $1.4b IMF loan, and appointed a friendly ambassador, thinking it would make him more pliable and democratic.

I suspect Trump is finally open to acknowledging starvation in Gaza because it distracts from the Epstein files

That’ll fix the problem

Professional update! I've been named a senior non-resident fellow with @cipolicy.bsky.social. I’ll be part of a team that seeks to move US foreign policy in a progressive direction, for my part focusing on LatAm and immigration. I will remain a professor at VCU and fellow with @ips-dc.org.

Marco Rubio criticized Hugo Chávez, Daniel Ortega, and Evo Morales for changing their constitutions to lift term limits in order to stay in power. I wonder if he’ll have anything to say about Bukele?

El Salvador’s legislature, which is a rubber stamp for Bukele, is pushing constitutional reforms to allow him to run for reelection indefinitely. He already defied the constitution limiting presidents to one term by running for reelection once. Now he seeks to stay in office for life.

Investigations depend on witnesses. Indictments and convictions often depend on witnesses. Victims of domestic violence are not victimized by property or social orders, they’re by intimate partners. But yes, insofar as no one reports crimes, I suppose cops will have less work to do.

Local PDs understand it’s harder to solve crimes when people are scared to talk to police, right?

He’s right, we shouldn’t punish entrepreneurs who make an honest living by defrauding Medicare for $2 billion

anonymous student reports notably useless as data now have the power to get teachers fired and / or arrested—not great

An administration that claims to support viewpoint diversity on campus is ordering the Justice Department to investigate GMU professors who signed a petition defending the university president the administration wants to oust

I know we don’t govern based on polls, but in a functional democracy, public opinion would have some discernible impact on US foreign policy

Ex-President Álvaro Uribe of Colombia Is Convicted of Bribery

In the US, we - and especially President Trump - speak disparagingly about countries that prosecute former presidents as “banana republics.” But which are better models of rule of law: countries that prosecute corruption at the highest levels or those that never do?

Also reminder that having tattoos can get you jailed without a trial and tortured in El Salvador as well

The Trump admin has to know it’s going to get sued, and lose, over cases like this. It’s calculated that the eventual payouts to individuals are a cost of doing business, because there won’t be any meaningful checks on its lawbreaking by Congress or the courts.

Reminder that Hernandez Romero followed the law. He entered legally seeking asylum. A judge never ruled against him. The Trump admin simply renditioned him to El Salvador for having tattoos, a violation of non-refoulement. The USG broke the law, not him.

Democrats’ 2024 Autopsy Is Described as Avoiding the Likeliest Cause of Death

There are many establishment Democrats invested in blaming “the groups” so as to avoid blaming “the consultants” and to justify shoveling millions more dollars to them to lose future elections

The person in question personally led negotiations with the Bukele government on behalf of MS-13, which explains why Bukele is so desperate to shut him up. It’s inconceivable why the Trump admin would go to such lengths to carry water for Bukele and cover up his gang pact.