K. Campbell

a man wearing a mask sits at a desk with the words " the cartel is making cash " written above him ALT: a man wearing a mask sits at a desk with the words " the cartel is making cash " written above him

6. Terrorism is ideologically motivated. Drug cartels are $$$ driven. A counterterrorism-only policy almost never defeats terrorism (Most govts have yet to learn this). Will a military- and law enforcement-only policy defeat drug cartels, or degrade them sufficiently (back to #2 above)?

4/4

5. Don't apply Iraq & AFG constructs to Mexico. Many gung-ho dudes, who advocate for mil ops in Mexico, with tactical-only experience in OIF & OEF who were spoiled by the U.S. pretty much owning the ground and using wartime ROE with little to no oversight and accountability. Mexico ain't that.

3/4

Basically, how do we measure success?

3. Would the cartels retaliate against the 800k to 1.6 million Americans living in Mexico, and or the 30+ million American tourists that visit Mexico annually?

4. What U.S. military actions would the govt of Mexico authorize, publicly and or privately?

2/4.

Tons to unpack.

1. You can always find govt lawyers who will authorize anything (e.g., Bill Barr's memo in daddy Bush's admin mentioned in the article, memo authorizing torture in baby Bush's admin).

2. What would be the strategic and operational goals and their measures of effectiveness?

1/4 🧵

an elderly woman in a blue jacket is shaking her head ALT: an elderly woman in a blue jacket is shaking her head

Despite warnings by narcissistic AI CEOs and programmers, I think humanity is safe from being destroyed by AI for the foreseeable future.

a man wearing glasses and a tie is sitting in front of a computer and says what is going on ? ALT: a man wearing glasses and a tie is sitting in front of a computer and says what is going on ?

As a former Air Force targeteer I can authoritatively tell you that absolutely none of this makes the least bit of sense for numerous reasons.

a man in a suit and tie is speaking into a microphone at a podium that says governor andrew m. cuomo ALT: a man in a suit and tie is speaking into a microphone at a podium that says governor andrew m. cuomo

On geopolitical matters (and arguably in domestic politics), people conflate tough talk and tough actions.

Other U.S. options include sectoral sanctions, which would target the entire Indian oil and gas sector.

Most extreme option: comprehensive sanctions that would cut off all of India from the U.S. financial system.

So, the U.S. use of tariffs to punish India is bizarre.

/End.

Traditional sanctions would prevent U.S. financial and other entities from having a relationship with these Indian importers. Secondary sanctions would be sanctioning non-U.S. entities that deal with these Indian importers.

It's also bizarre that Chinese importers of Russian oil aren't sanctioned.

Top 10 Crude Oil Importers in India for 2024-25 Explore the top 10 crude oil importers in India for 2024-25 including Nayara Energy, RIL, IOC, BPCL, and HPCL. Discover market trends and import data insight here.

No. Tariffs aren't really sanctions. U.S. tariffs are a tax on U.S. consumers buying Indian goods.

Actual U.S. sanctions would be direct punishment, e.g., U.S. govt fines, on U.S. entities (U.S. banks, etc.) that deal with Indian importers of Russian oil, e..g., Rosneft-backed Nayara Energy.🧵

YouTube video by Angela Collier billionaires want you to know they could have done physics

True, and much worse:

Billionaires assume billionaires are geniuses and experts in all endeavors, subjects, and aspects of life.

"billionaires want you to know they could have done physics"
—Angela Collier

www.youtube.com/watch?v=GmJI...

It's because people assume billionaires are geniuses and experts in all endeavors, subjects, and aspects of life. Nothing is further from the truth.

Less biased people such as global risk and geopolitical analysts who don't own or have majority stakes in AI companies probably have a more sober or nuanced analysis/forecast.

Someone who's extremely smart figured out that NWS provides services, and that it needs people in order to provide these services?

still thinking about the Montana knife maker who said you don't have to worry about tariffs if you buy american. and then three months later, he realized he imports swedish steel and german equipment. and even MiUSA equipment costs $100k more now because of tariffs

And a paragraph in the paper actually suggests polyphenols might be counterproductive in clearing cancer cells.

"Polyphenols can constrain muscle atrophy and damage to the immune system from inhibiting the apoptosis process while enhancing this process is effective in clearing cancer cells."

A life in intel can make you attuned to wording, esp caveats. "According to a 2021 study, diets high in polyphenols can reduce the risk of... cancer..."

Arguably sloppy.

The study uses words like "Scientists have proposed", "could have", "evidence supports the hypothesis", "may defend against".

a woman in a purple shirt says " in my expert opinion " in a kitchen ALT: a woman in a purple shirt says " in my expert opinion " in a kitchen

I've noticed that. At the start of the Russia-Ukraine war, the number of newly minted, extremely confident war planners, military strategists, and security cooperation experts was staggering.

Most people don't realize that a "high confidence" assessment is the equivalent of saying that the sky is blue or that our planet has oceans. The bar for assessments that are "high confidence" is extremely high.

Having lived in Japan (near Tokyo) for 3 years during my intelligence career, I can say that a cooling pack addition to the fan would be great.

It isn't a recognized "INT" but I've seen the term used a few times.

Biographic intel was one of my favorite areas as an intel officer.

I'm no counterintelligence expert, but my goodness this is almost criminal.

This is a shocking, disturbing oversight by Microsoft. What were they thinking!?

Why the Patriot Won’t Be a “Game Changer”​ in Ukraine Short update and republish of my Dec 2022 article on Ukraine's then-impending Patriot air defense system. Update includes an interesting, albeit not surprising, revelation by Ukrainian Pres Zelensky.

Not surprising. *ALL* air defenses can be defeated 3 ways:

1. Avoid them (easy when the country has limited AD coverage).

2. Attack them (need to destroy only the target acquisition/tracking radar).

3. Saturate them (there are always algorithmic and human limitations). E.g., with cheap drones.

The Dangers of Not Protecting the “3Ps” During Events - Domestic Preparedness On 5 November 2021, an apparent crowd crush at the Astroworld music festival in Houston, Texas resulted in ten deaths and untold injuries. While the criminal investigation is in its early stages at th...

Luckily for organizers of the Country Jam festival, it looks like he has no interest in filing a lawsuit (Protect the Pocketbook).

#concert #countrymusic #eventsecurity

WATCH: Dylan Marlowe Kicked Out of Festival After 'Heated Words Exchanged' Dylan Marlowe was thrown out of a festival he was performing at after getting into a heated exchange with security.

Rare when 1 action violates 2 of my" 3Ps" of event security, while jeopardizing a third.

Security at the Country Jam festival kicked out a performer while he watched another performer. Violates Protect the Performer and Protect the Patron, and common sense.

And shows badge management problems.

When I say the media launders the myth of LLMs being "intelligent," this is what I mean.

LLMs are not in any way "intelligent" (not even artificially). They cannot self-reflect.

They identify patterns based on inputs and, from that, use predictions and probabilities to offer output. That's it.