Steve Bowen

Damage to Florida crops could top $1 billion after below-freezing temps “There will be no normal about this season,” one farmer said.

Recent extended freeze in Florida has had a significant impact to the agricultural sector. The state estimates damage costs to crops alone could top $1bn.

www.orlandosentinel.com/2026/02/12/d...

Radical take: I prefer breathing clean air without toxic fossil fuel pollutants.

The combined direct economic toll from the recent clustering of strong windstorms in Portugal and Spain now tops €8bn ($9.5bn). This total will increase as this primarily accounts for wind and flood damage to agriculture and infrastructure.

Storm Kristin
Storm Leonardo (Stephie)
Storm Marta

Storm Kristin, which brought hurricane-force winds to Portugal and Spain on January 28-29, left a wide trail of impacts. Economic damage costs in Portugal alone are now at least €4bn ($4.7bn).

Hardest-hit areas were affected by the system's "sting jet" that maximized wind speeds as it came ashore.

Great article. Also, selfishly, excited that @bhensonweather.bsky.social references a recent paper that a few of us recently published on rapid intensification trends of tropical cyclones using ENSO based on RONI.

Paper: agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...

Improved climate adaptation / mitigation can reduce risk. Eliminate it? No.

The primary challenge is whether we can scale enough to meaningfully improve our readiness. There are ample examples of strong building codes working. Just not nearly enough properties are built to an appropriate standard.

Sitting in a Canadian catastrophe conference, and hearing an eerily familiar refrain from what many of us are saying across the border in the US:

"Earthquake insurance penetration rates for homeowners are shockingly low. When the next 'big one' hits, a huge portion of damage will be uninsured."

The Forecast Wars on Weather Twitter Traditional meteorologists speak in potentialities and probabilities. A new type of social-media influencer takes a different approach, exaggerating possibilities and fomenting hype in the lead-up to ...

This is pathetic, but also a dangerous reality that legitimate scientists trying to provide rational nuance to a starved public have to contend against.

www.newyorker.com/culture/infi...

True: The recent US winter storm was disruptive and a big deal for many communities.

False: It did not and will not come remotely close to causing up to $115bn in direct (or indirect) economic losses.

Media: Please stop treating these estimates as anything other than a farcical fantasy.

This really is quite the US weather hazard alert map.

Did you know that NOAA has a categorical ranking system (1-5) for winter storms?

It's called the Regional Snowfall Index (RSI): www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monit...

Unlike the Saffir-Simpson or Enhanced Fujita scales, the RSI is attributed after an event and accounts for hazard AND societal impacts.

January 23 7:25 AM: Current situation in the northern suburbs of Chicago.

Chilly.

The biggest drivers of losses from winter storms are often:

- Burst frozen pipes / indoor flooding
- Business interruption due to prolonged power outages
- Infrastructure / utility grid damage

Weathering and modernizing utility grids are essential to withstand extreme weather / climate shifts.

The direct financial cost of annual natural catastrophes should merely be one metric to tell a much bigger story of how risk is growing. While the insurance industry sits at the front line, and understands climate change risk better than most industries, we cannot solve these issues alone.

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The rational approach is to understand that greater annual and regional volatility in individual event behavior will bring greater losses and more “downstream” societal impacts. We must see more investment into data research and mitigation, plus ensure significant emission reduction.

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We will further endure the growing influence of climate change on global weather patterns and individual events. However, it is crucial to stress that climate change will not translate to consistent linear growth in event frequency or intensity in all parts of the world for all perils.

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We must recognize that the complexity of natural catastrophe events is accelerating the need to better understand how both physical and non-physical risk profiles are evolving and becoming increasingly interconnected.

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The US accounted for the bulk of 2025 natural catastrophe losses; representing 78% ($100bn) of global insured losses. At least $92bn of the insured losses came from SCS activity (>$51bn) and the January California wildfires ($41bn).

The US endured 28 billion-dollar economic loss events.

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While not a record breaking year, 2025 proved consequential for many communities and offered more examples of the how increasingly interconnected and vulnerable the world remains to current and future natural hazard risk.

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Today we release our Gallagher Re 2025 Natural Catastrophe and Climate Report.

Full Report: www.ajg.com/gallagherre/...

Economic Loss: $296bn (-25% vs 10 Yr Avg; $394 bn)
Insured Loss: $129bn (-5% vs 10 Yr Avg; $136 bn)

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Horrific wildfires in Chile. It is unfortunately becoming much too common and a near annual occurrence for the country as it deals with more extreme summer heat and favorable fire conditions.

a man wearing a helmet and scarf stands in front of a crowd of people ALT: a man wearing a helmet and scarf stands in front of a crowd of people

Taking into account pre-season expectations, no serious Bears fan can be disappointed given the insane ride the season ended up being.

It absolutely sucks to lose.

But the Bears played meaningful football into the second half of January.

I'll take it.

Losing still sucks though.

FYI: We will be releasing the 2025 edition of the Gallagher Re Natural Catastrophe & Climate Report next week on January 21.

Reminder: Yes, large-scale events that cause at least $1 billion in direct economic impacts drive the bulk of annual US catastrophe losses. But the non-billion-dollar events still drive considerable aggregate costs.

Since 2010, non-billion-dollar events account for 24% of US losses ($544 billion).

2025 was a challenging year for weather / climate related issues. We saw more record breaking extremes. We sounded the alarm to support science and data availability.

Forward progress and protecting scientific integrity is key. We must celebrate the wins (big or small).

We all have a role to play.

This is a remarkable forecast discussion from the WPC:

"...heavy rainfall totals for Southern CA will likely occur over an 18 hour period, with widespread 4-7 inch totals, with isolated max amounts of 9"+..."

"...anomalous 850-700 mb moisture flux; 5+ standard deviations above the mean..."

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Heads up for Southern California on December 24-25. The National Weather Service has issued a rare High Risk for excessive rainfall that may lead to serious flash flooding, mudslides, landslides, etc.

Areas affected by wildfires in recent years will have an elevated risk given burn scars.

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a man wearing headphones and a chicago bears shirt is standing on a field . ALT: a man wearing headphones and a chicago bears shirt is standing on a field .

This. All of this.

Climate is simply a longer-term average of... weather.

Climate change research is simply the study of changing weather patterns.

NCAR has been at the forefront of weather / climate research and providing essential datasets for decades. It is one of the world's best training grounds for scientists.

One of the great success stories in American history was President Eisenhower pushing major investment in STEM education at the dawn of the Space Race.

Scientific literacy greatly improved. It was a point of national pride. NASA was the coolest.

Scientific advancement should always be championed.