Steve Bowen

Saying that excessive carbon dioxide emissions is not a harmful pollutant to people or the environment is akin to a doctor telling a patient with lung cancer to keep smoking for the health benefits.

Science is going to science regardless of what people choose to believe.

There were two Cubs who I looked upon as baseball heroes as a kid:

Ryne Sandberg
Andre Dawson

Ryno and Michael Jordan were the two reasons I wore 23 throughout my "athletic career."

Ryno played the game the right way. Fundamentally sound. Clutch. Led by example.

Cubs legend. Great person.

RIP.

Billion-dollar disasters drive major aggregated annual losses in the United States. "Smaller" events also bring financial challenges.

Since 2010 (in today's dollars)...
>$1B Events: $1.7 trillion (74%)
<$1B Events: $535 billion (26%)

NOAA's annual combined budget from 2010-2024: ~$105 billion

UN's top court says failing to protect planet from climate change could violate international law The United Nations’s top court in a landmark advisory opinion says countries could be in violation of international law if they fail to take measures to protect the planet from climate change, and nat...

This is an important headline that will provide more push towards decarbonization. But the opinion is also non-binding, which means more work to be done.

We need to take the global implications of climate change and "personalize" the message so people understand what climate risk means to them.

One of the greatest concert moments of my life was seeing Ozzy Osbourne join Metallica in 2011 at The Fillmore in San Francisco, along with Geezer Butler, to sing some Black Sabbath songs.

Ozzy Osbourne, Black Sabbath frontman and icon of British heavy metal, dies aged 76 The singer, who later became famous on reality TV show The Osbournes, dies less than three weeks after retirement concert

Truly gutted.

Ozzy Osbourne is one of the Godfathers of heavy metal and a musical legend.

Thanks for all of the songs. The quirkiness. The uniqueness. The Ozzyness.

Inspiring all the best riffs.

www.theguardian.com/music/2025/j...

Enjoying the quiet tropics while we can. Shhh...

This is incredible. Thanks, Jeff!

Thank you! Fun segment.

To illustrate just how much of the United States is uninsured against flood risk, take note of this statistic:

Just 25 counties (nearly all of them coastal) account for 50% (!!!) of all active NFIP policies.

Latest National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) take-up map by county. Data as of June 30, 2025.

National total of NFIP active policies is declining. The ongoing decline in Texas amid a population boom is concerning.

Much work to be done to overcome how few inland properties have flood insurance.

Thank you, Jeff! Investment into science, forecast modeling, and scientific expertise matters. The shrinking cone of uncertainty is a great example of progress.

Just for clarity: My comment on "quite manageable elsewhere in the world" refers to the financial cost. H1 2025 outside the US was the least expensive in 20+ years.

This does not in any way minimize the societal implications experienced by far too many from a single event or broader climate risk.

This is awesome feedback. Thank you very much. A lot of work goes into it.

The report also goes into a deep dive on the 20th anniversary of the historic 2005 Atlantic hurricane season. There were many lessons learned from that season which are still relevant and being implemented today.

The US recorded at least 15 individual billion-dollar economic loss events, which will further grow as new claims data is received. This is equal to the H1 10-year (2015-2024) average.

The US accounted for >$110bn in economic losses, of which >$75bn was covered by insurance.

At least $73bn of the insured loss resulted from the January wildfires in California ($40bn) and US thunderstorm activity (>$33bn).

The rest of the world saw >$41bn in economic losses; lowest H1 since 2004.

Gallagher Re has released our H1 2025 Natural Catastrophe and Climate Report. It has been a highly active start to the year in the United States, but quite manageable elsewhere in the world.

Economic Loss: $151 billion
Insured Loss: $84 billion

www.ajg.com/gallagherre/...

Found myself with a few spare hours in the Denver area, so I headed to NCAR in Boulder to check out the facility and its spot in the mountain foothills.

Totally blown away by the spectacular views and wonderful hiking trails. Wonderful facility, too.

Hooray science and nature!

Friends don't let friends quote ridiculous loss estimates or use shoddy current hazard / future climate maps.

Exactly. It stokes confusion and sets irrational expectations. For those of us in insurance, we then have to spend a lot of time explaining why such numbers should never be trusted or used for planning / comparative / assessment purposes.

To wrap-up: Trying to account for secondary / tertiary (indirect) losses is a worthwhile exercise if done right. But throwing out incredibly high numbers without any eventual validation of such estimates, and some parameters aren't even calculable, can only be interpreted as seeking a headline.

Let me also be very clear that our estimates also include damage impacts to infrastructure, agriculture / crop, direct net-loss business interruption, offshore marine / energy, etc.

All of this is to say that estimating the direct economic cost of events is not trivial and takes time. Real-time estimates are useful, but there is always an enormous caveat that until actual damage assessments begin and insurance claims data arrives, there's going to be a lot of uncertainty.

For the US, the best peer-reviewed methodology to quantify the direct economic cost of natural catastrophe events (and address data uncertainty) came from NOAA:

www.ncei.noaa.gov/monitoring-c...

FYI: For non-US events, we implement bespoke methodologies for specific countries or regions.

Estimating the financial costs of natural catastrophe events is not easy. We are very careful assessing direct damage / loss costs based on available insurance claims data, other available hard data, and bespoke analytics. This process often requires several updates as new data emerges months later.

Respected outlets continue to quote these estimates. Why?

2018 California Wildfires: $400B
2024 Hurricane Season: $500B
2025 California Wildfires: $250-275B
April 2025 US SCS: $80-90B

These include wild guesses about future secondary / tertiary financial impacts. Has anyone ever sought validation?

As Oregon’s wildfire risk map dies, Washington creates its own A recent Klickitat County meeting marks the early stages of a process to gauge the risks and hazards wildfire poses in Washington and to guide new codes for fire-resistant construction.

Tip of the cap to any state proactively working to identify natural hazard risk areas. This is not a trivial exercise, nor one that ends without A LOT of feedback.

Oregon tried creating their own wildfire maps, and then took a step back.

Washington now giving it a try.

www.opb.org/article/2025...

We really need to see more robust integration of social scientists into the day-to-day work of real-time weather forecasting, evacuation / post-event planning, and other risk mitigation strategies.

USGS | Pocket Texas Geology Explore the geology beneath your feet using this 3rd generation mapping app from USGS.

(h/t: @kellyhereid.bsky.social)

If you're looking for an excellent interactive map showing the unique geology of Texas, and why some parts of the state are so much more vulnerable to flash flood risk than others, check out this USGS tool:

webapps.usgs.gov/txgeology/