Steve Bowen

Reminder that the EF scale is damage based; not wind based. We've almost certainly had EF5 intensity twisters touch down since 2013 but no observed damage to justify the rating -- which is subjective.

Had the Enderlin, ND not hit train cars, it conceivably would not have achieved its EF5 rating.

Update: The Grand Forks, North Dakota NWS office has confirmed that an EF5 tornado touched down on June 20, 2025.

This means that a modern record streak without an EF5 tornado ended after 4,413 days.

Even more miraculously? This occurred in the midst of a derecho, which is very unexpected.

The Global Influence of ENSO on Rapid Intensification of Tropical Cyclones Frequency of rapid intensification differs considerably for individual tropical cyclone basins and different ENSO phases Atlantic rapid intensification occurs more frequently in La Niña and less ...

***Another New Paper Alert***

We dive into the relationship of ENSO phase and rapid intensification (RI).

Since 1980: We find that >80% of hurricanes that strike the US mainland, and cause >$5bn in economic damage, go through RI in its lifecycle.

agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...

Katharine -- Sorry we missed one another last week! I was only in NYC for 2.5 days and my calendar was packed.

100% agree that progress is underway. More businesses are starting to make legit and meaningful steps forward. Is it enough? Not yet. But we need to celebrate the wins and push for more.

None of this stuff is an exact science. It's extremely hard to do. But just throwing some constant state "business as usual" scenarios through a macroeconomic model and concluding some enormous GDP value does not really add much usefulness to any business planning.

Perhaps a provocative take:

I'm not a big fan of studies that try to quantify future climate-related losses simply in the context of GDP. Trying to mix climate scenarios with macroeconomic modeling does not account for all the unique nuances linked to "future state" risk.

The best season in sports is postseason.

#Cubs

The Remarkable 2024 North Atlantic Mid‐Season Hurricane Lull Following an active start, the 2024 Atlantic hurricane was quiet during the climatological peak with only 1 tropical storm and 1 hurricane The lull was not anticipated by seasonal forecasting age...

***New Paper Alert***

While the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season feels like a decade ago, here is a paper that does a deep dive into the headscratching "mid-season lull".

This line-up of co-authors is incredible, and very humbling to be part of it.
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...

Odd.

Category 4 hurricane (Humberto) and strong Tropical Storm (Imelda) this close to the US -- with minimal landfall threat.

Humberto will soon metaphorically take Imelda by the hand and drag them both eastward into the Atlantic.

Bermuda and its excellent building codes are ready, if necessary.

Terrific first full day at NYC Climate Week.

The best sessions to participate in are the ones that bring people together to discuss actual solutions to climate / sustainability challenges.

We should be long past the point of having events that just rehash talking points of what we already know.

The Western Pacific has roared to life. Category 5 equivalent Ragasa to pass just north of the Philippines. Outer bands and an influence of steering flow moisture will bring flood risk to the Philippines and Taiwan. Weakening will occur prior to likely landfall in China / Vietnam in the coming days.

Excellent job by Notre Dame Stadium staff to get 80,000 people evacuated ahead of the first drops of rain and lightning getting too close.

Like being a kid in the nerdiest scientific candy store.

So much important and critical research is being conducted here to better understand how to prepare our communities for natural catastrophe risk.

This was a really good article. It discusses the nuances of what (kinda) works in the carbon capture / sequestration space and the huge concerns on leakage if not done right.

At the end of the day, what we truly need is to solve the root problem: transition away from burning fossil fuels.

First-time unemployment claims at highest level since 2021 — but most of the increase is tied to Texas flooding Initial jobless claims rose by 27,000 to 263,000 in the week that ended Sept. 6, the Labor Department said Thursday.

Just took the headline screenshot from this article:

www.marketwatch.com/story/jobles...

Extreme weather / climate change risk is a societal AND economic risk.

The connections are clear, but the messaging of that reality does not fully land with the public until, sadly, they are directly affected themselves.

Today (September 10) marks the historical peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. 2025, thus far, has been unusually quiet, but there is still a lot of season left to go.

This graphic looks at US hurricane landfalls by day since 1950. Note that 43% of historical landfalls have occurred after Sep 10.

The last few reinsurance renewal cycles (April 1, June 1, July 1) have shown a >10% pricing decline in some markets. Not all. Supply currently overall outstrips demand. Unless a "mega" insured event ($100-115+ billion) occurs, the "soft" market will continue into January 1 renewals.

Reinsurers have scaled back covering certain perils and/or regions over the last few years, lifted coverage layers, and left primaries to pay much more of the disaster costs themselves. The lack of a "mega" disaster to eat into reinsurance earnings have left them flush with record capital.

Today I was given the chance to host a listener segment on the new "Maximum Metallica" channel on SiriusXM.

Playlist
🤘Blackened
🤘Stone Cold Crazy (Live; Freddie Mercury Tribute Concert)
🤘The Outlaw Torn
🤘The Four Horsemen
🤘Master of Puppets

Thank you to Metallica and SiriusXM for the opportunity!

September 2: All indications that the Atlantic is about to wake up pretty quickly in the next few weeks. Atmospheric and oceanic conditions very favorable for development.

The question, as always, is if storms do develop, what are the steering currents that drive where they go.

Stay tuned.

A few years ago, I obtained a fully intact Sunday, August 28, 2005 edition of The Times-Picayune newspaper.

It was apparently found in New Orleans' Lower Ninth Ward in the days after Katrina had made landfall.

A hugely emotional and deeply humbling artifact of history.

Thanks for reading.

If interested, I wrote a lengthy piece on the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season in Gallagher Re's H1 Natural Catastrophe and Climate Report that goes into even more detail.

Find it here: www.ajg.com/gallagherre/...

(11/11)

We must shift our mindset with natural catastrophes from reactive to proactive. We know more events will come. We see the fingerprints of climate change grow more evident. We know what communities have the highest risk.

We should no longer be surprised.

We have enough tools to be prepared.

(10/n)

Are we ready for another 2005? Yes and no.

Our ability to forecast these storms has improved. Quantifying and qualifying risk is better.

But.

Increased losses bring more instability to insurance markets. Some states have yet to do enough with building codes. Funding gaps threaten progress.

(9/n)

Events like Katrina permanently change communities. A simple statistical look at Orleans Parish, LA shows how the number of people and housing units have yet to return to pre-Katrina levels. The physical and emotional (mental) scars will forever remain long after the media leaves.

(8/n)

Katrina's devastation showed how unprepared our homes and businesses are to handle such a storm. Several states have since dramatically improved their preparedness to wind damage (FL, VA, SC, LA). Others have not (TX, MS, AL). A study by IBHS in 2024 showed how much work remains.

(7/n)

Katrina became the catalyst for the two-decade debt issue plaguing the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). Current debt? $22.5 billion.

The storm by itself still accounts for 20% of all NFIP payouts ever made. NFIP came out of the National Flood Insurance Act of 1968.

(6/n)

The 2004/05 seasons saw a massive jump of policyholders on Florida's state-run "insurer of last resort" as private market options left the state. It took nearly 20 years for Florida to enact changes to stabilize its market.

Many other states now face similar challenges as Florida once did.

(5/n)

The storm highlighted vulnerabilities of the private insurance market. Many smaller insurance companies went out of business after Katrina. Other larger carriers reassessed their portfolios and decided some markets were too risky to offer policies. Climate change only grows this challenge.

(4/n)