Mark Bove

Katrina Helped Revolutionize Hurricane Forecasting. Budget Cuts May Set Us Back Hurricane forecasts have made huge leaps since Katrina hit 20 years ago, but that progress is threatened by Trump administration cuts to research

I wrote about how Hurricane Katrina helped spur pretty remarkable improvements in hurricane forecasts since 20 years ago and how current and planned budget cuts by the Trump administration to research could set us back.

Location of destructive wildfires (> 50 structures lost) between 2000 and 2018 that originated on (a) USFS lands, and (b) non-USFS lands. Fire locations are symbolized by magnitude of structure loss. Relatively few destructive fires originated on USFS lands. The most destructive USFS and non-USFS fires during this time are the Cedar fire and the Camp fire, respectively.

Fires started on private lands and transmitted to public are more damaging than the reverse - relatively uncommon for destructive fires to start in public wildlands and spread to private communities. Fig 6 is esp striking.

www.nature.com/articles/s41...

HT @jaishrijuice.bsky.social for re-upping

Remembering Katrina, 20 years later. Here’s a few of (imo) my more compelling photos on-site from post-event surveys in September 2005 and February 2006.

Katrina's lasting legacy: Exploring the evolving risk landscape along the northern Gulf Coast | Munich Re Twenty years have passed since Hurricane Katrina became the most destructive hurricane in US history, producing an inflation-adjusted US$ 205 billion in overall losses, of which roughly half was insur...

My article on Katrina, 20 years later.

Couldn’t cover every facet of this historic event in just 1,500 words. I focus on the fact that risk isn’t static…and continues to rise.

www.munichre.com/en/insights/...

#Erin becomes the 7th Atlantic storm in the Satellite Era (1966-present) to reach 150 mph by August 16.

1969: Camille (Aug 16)
1980: Allen (Aug 4)
2004: Charley (Aug 13)
2005: Dennis (Jul 8)
2005: Emily (Jul 17)
2024: Beryl (Jul 1)
2025: Erin (Aug 16)

FYI: Don't write a season off in early August.

Erin’s radius of maximum wind (RMW) is only about 9km this morning. That is exceptionally small and characteristic of high-end rapid intensification in pretty much any basin.

At this rate, category 5 intensity is likely by later this morning or early afternoon.

Erin's currently estimated increase from 75 kt to 130 kt intensity (maximum sustained wind anywhere in the hurricane) in **12 hours** is a 55-kt change exceeded by only three Atlantic hurricanes in the past 50 years: 2005 Wilma (75 kt!), 2007 Felix (60 kt), and 2024 Milton (60 kt).

Reminder that the Tsunami Warning Centers are part of the National Weather Service. It would be nice to have them fully funded.

Well deserved! You’re fantastic!

Wouldn’t this be Antarctic chic?

*Proud co-author of NCA5, 21 Northeast.

From the now-offline 5th National Climate Assessment, 21 Northeast. The chapter team debated for months on how to best show these precipitation trends on both temporal and spatial scales. The one we settled on works well and makes the trend pretty dark clear.

Save NOAA Labs The Administration is proposing to zero-out funding for the NOAA labs in Boulder and other operations for the Office of Oceanic & Atmospheric Research. Speakers will brief...

Tomorrow: Save NOAA Labs event, hosted by Boulder Public Library. Speakers, including CIRES' Laura Riihimaki, will brief Congressman Neguse on work happening at NOAA Boulder labs & why it matters.

🗓️: July 12
🕙: 10:15 am
📍: Canyon Theater, Main Library
calendar.boulderlibrary.org/event/14927555

Vertical land motion in Greater New Orleans: Insights into underlying drivers and impact to flood protection infrastructure Satellites provide perspective on the sustainability of New Orleans.

Speaking of Katrina +20, this is important new work on subsidence rates in New Orleans and its impacts on the city’s critical levee system.

www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...

Fun fact: I actually met Mr. Brown when we shared a billing at conference for Michigan insurers in ‘06 or ‘07. During the opening icebreaker activity we were obligated to touch pinky-to-pinky. 🤢

Read my mind. I’m working on an article on Katrina + 20 right now.

Imagine if this administration was in charge then.

It would make “heckuva good job” Brownie’s FEMA’s response be an actual heckuva good job in comparison.

Everything’s horrible so here’s some cuteness from the pupnado.

My guess: duh.

Remarkable! "Purposely driving or walking into floodwaters accounts for more than 86% of total U.S. flood fatalities." Flash flooding the most deadly flood type; males more likely to be killed in floods than females; ages <30 the most vulnerable to floods. www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/13...

As horrible as the Guadeloupe River flash flood was, it was an isolated small scale event.

FEMA couldn’t even handle that.

Imagine the call volume that’ll be generated (and not answered) when a major hurricane hits a populated area, possibly just weeks from now.

Respected outlets continue to quote these estimates. Why?

2018 California Wildfires: $400B
2024 Hurricane Season: $500B
2025 California Wildfires: $250-275B
April 2025 US SCS: $80-90B

These include wild guesses about future secondary / tertiary financial impacts. Has anyone ever sought validation?

Journalists and others, take note: this is an excellent, comprehensive, and up-to-date perspective on the still-escalating threats to NOAA beyond the NWS. NWS remains in pretty dire straits, yet the prospects for the rest of NOAA are actually even more dire (especially with respect to climate).

Scenes from No Kings rally in Trenton, NJ

Major US climate website likely to be shut down after almost all staff fired Exclusive: Climate.gov, which supports public education on climate science, will soon no longer publish new content

Climate.gov, a major US government website supporting public education on climate science, will likely shut down after almost all of its staff were fired. What would be worse is if the website were co-opted to publish climate denial content.

(S+) US-Wissenschaft: Donald Trumps Einfluss auf Meteorologie und Klimaforschung US-Präsident Donald Trump zerschlägt Amerikas Meteorologie und Klimaforschung. Schon für die anbrechende Hurrikansaison sind die Folgen fatal.

Zerstörung der Klimawissenschaft in den USA - “Es wird Menschenleben kosten” (Destruction of climate science in the USA - “It will cost lives”) | New article by Johann Grolle for @spiegel.de:

www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft...

Important dispatch from @michaelrlowry.bsky.social, a meteorologist at the front lines of hurricane season.

I especially appreciate his highlighting that it's not just forecasts - those forecasts only exist when they're embedded in an ecosystem of rigorous observational data and research.

🎁 link

Some pictures of today’s incredible stormchase and deployment near Brownfield, TX by the ICECHIP team. Another successful deployment! @nsficechip.bsky.social @ibhs.org

Oops forgot the pic. 🤣

Anya @araedler.bsky.social wins Most Stylish out of the Munich Re ICECHIP contingent! @nsficechip.bsky.social @ibhs.org