Mike Honey

Report link:
mike-honey.github.io/covid-19-gen...
🧵 ends

Note the sample sizes are quite small. This dataset (mostly arrivals in the US and Japan) is arguably more random, as it is not skewed by sequencing volumes.
🧵

Here are the trends across all the International Traveller samples. From that perspective, XFG.* "Stratus" grew to 78%, while NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" fell to 15%.
🧵

Here's the latest variant picture with a global scope, to late September.

XFG.* "Stratus" was higher at 73%.

NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" fell to 18%.

#COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #Global #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus #XFG #Stratus
🧵

Quite surprising that XFG.* hasn’t had any impact (yet), given how strong it looks in Europe and North America.

Report Link:
mike-honey.github.io/covid-19-au-...
🧵ends

Australian COVID-19 weekly stats update:

The risk estimate fell slightly to 0.2% “Currently Infectious”, or 1-in-659.

That implies a 4% chance that someone is infectious in a group of 30.

#COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #Australia
🧵

I maintain an “Archive” edition of the dataviz, with all the data from the start of the pandemic.

Canada shared a lot of data in earlier years - try filtering for 6-month windows
bsky.app/profile/mike...

Influenza is seasonal, so the northern hemisphere’s wave will be starting soon.

Report link:
mike-honey.github.io/covid-19-gen...
🧵 ends

Here’s the table of recent sample volumes (excluding Australia, NZ, Europe, Canada and the US).

China shared a large batch of recent samples.
🧵

Here are the leading countries reporting the XFG.* "Stratus" variant.
🧵

Here are the leading countries reporting the NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" variant.
🧵

This perspective excludes all the high-volume countries and regions that I routinely report on: Australia, NZ, Europe, Canada and the US. The remaining countries are aggregated into this report.
🧵

Here's the latest variant picture for the "Global - Other" countries, to mid-September.

The NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" variant remained dominant, growing to 68%.

XFG.* "Stratus" fell to 25%.

#COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #GlobalOther #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus #XFG #Stratus
🧵

Report link:
mike-honey.github.io/covid-19-gen...
🧵 ends

Here are the leading European countries reporting XFG.* "Stratus".

The frequency has stayed at around 100% in Russia and Ukraine for many weeks, while it has fallen sharply in Ireland.
🧵

Here's the latest variant picture for Europe (excluding the UK), to mid-September.

The XFG.* "Stratus" variant continued to dominate, but may have peaked and fell slightly to 81% frequency.

NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" fell slightly to 9%.

#COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #EUR #LP_8_1 #XFG #Stratus #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus
🧵

Report link:
mike-honey.github.io/covid-19-gen...
🧵 ends

Here's the latest variant picture for the United Kingdom, to mid-September.

The XFG.* "Stratus" variant remained dominant and resumed growing to 81%.

NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" fell to 14%.

#COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #UK #XFG #Stratus #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus
🧵

Report link:
mike-honey.github.io/covid-19-gen...
🧵 ends

Here's the latest variant picture for Canada, to mid-September.

XFG.* "Stratus" continued to dominate, growing to 78%.

NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" fell back to 14%.

#COVID19 #Canada #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus #XFG #Stratus
🧵

Report link:
mike-honey.github.io/covid-19-gen...
🧵 ends

Here's the latest variant picture for the United States, to mid-September.

The XFG.* "Stratus" variant continued it’s dominance, rising slightly to 84% frequency.

NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" rose slightly to 8%.

#COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #USA #XFG #Stratus #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus
🧵

Report link:
mike-honey.github.io/covid-19-gen...
🧵 ends

The recent growth in the XFG.* "Stratus" variant has been driven by the XFG.3.15 sub-lineage. This has been around for many months in many countries without ever reaching 10% frequency. So this likely signals further evolution with added mutations.
🧵

Here's the latest variant picture for New Zealand, to late September.

NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus" has continued to dominate, finishing down slightly to 52%.

JN.1.* +DeFLuQE finishing down at 23%.

XFG.* "Stratus" grew strongly to 21%.

#COVID19 #SARSCoV2 #NZ #NB_1_8_1 #Nimbus #DeFLuQE #XFG #Stratus
🧵

I understand the ascertainment rate has changed since 2019. But does it feel like the recent waves are really larger than those in 2017 and 2019?

Yep, also the highest year ever during January-April.

Report link:
mike-honey.github.io/covid-19-gen...
🧵 ends