Koubitz

January 2025 Ipsos/NYT a highly rated pollster

February 2025 Pew Research a highly rated pollster

Worth noting that Pew Research has had this issue trending with more opposition growing from both Democrats and Republicans

McCaskill: There's people like Sherrod Brown and Roy Cooper that are very happy tonight. We didn't think the senate was going to be in play next year. I think after tonight, it’s in play.

Newsom: We're proud of the work that the people of the state of California did tonight, to send a powerful message to an historic president. Donald Trump is an historic president. He is the most historically unpopular president in modern history….

I've never seen a motherfucker want to be President this badly before lmao

That is fucking crazy man

Ok, one last race call for the night from a bellwether county...

The Democrats have FLIPPED the Erie County, PA (Trump+1) County Executive position by 24 POINTS!

Well clearly in non-Presidential elections lol

Mary Sheffield will become the first woman elected mayor of Detroit, CNN projects. Follow live updates. https://cnn.it/4oRiL7z

Holy shit, the Prop 50 turnout was massive! NYT projecting 10.6 million votes, CA GOV 2022 was 10.9M votes.

I don't really think the stock market collapsing would be necessary. All we need is inflation that doesn't improve and rising unemployment. I think Texas is more plausible to me than Iowa, unless Dems have a really good candidate to run there.

Live updates: US voters head to the polls in first general election since Trump's return to power One year after Donald Trump retook the presidency, 2025 Election Day includes closely watched races for New York City mayor, New Jersey governor and California's Proposition 50.

BREAKING: Colorado voters approved a ballot measure that would raise state income taxes on higher-earning households to fund free meals for all public school students.

Follow AP for live updates.

Hardest "realignment" throw of all time award

MARY PELTOLA RUN FOR SENATE

The latest, 11pm:

—Prop 50 wins
—VA Dems flip Gov, LG, AG; & gain in House
—Dems win NJ-Gov
—Mamdani wins
—PA Dems win supreme court
—ME vote-restricting measure loses
—Krasner & Bragg win
—JD's half-brother loses
—GA Dems flip 2 statewide offices
+ Dem are leading to flip so many local offices.

not to bring the vibe down, but my guess is that after tonight Trump will probably double down on gerrymandering, voter suppression, and intimidation as tactics to disincentivize Dem turnout ahead of next year‘s midterms. (with margins like these, it won’t matter, but it’s a time to be vigilant)

The factional grifters will hate this, but the Mamdani-Spanberger-Sherrill axis actually suggests the outlines of a broad, emerging Dem coalition organized around both anti-Trump *and* affordability politics, not a party bitterly divided against itself.

AOC on Trump: "He should be careful about the threats he issues and which cities he threatens."

If the economy gets worse and they Republicans end up with a bad candidate and Democrats get a popular candidate it is definitely possible it could be a toss up. The primaries will tell more, I think. It seems like today's swing was driven massively by Hispanics, which definitely matters in Texas.

What we know, 10:20pm

—VA Dems flip Gov, LG, *and* AG
—BIG Dem gains in VA House
—Dems win NJ-Gov
—Mamdani wins
—Dems keep PA supreme court
—Larry Krasner & Bragg win
— GA Dems flip 2 statewide offices
—JD Vance’s half-brother loses Cincy
—Dems sweep Orlando council
—ME anti-mail vote measure loses

Perth Amboy, NJ, with almost all the votes in

2024 President: Harris +8
2025 Governor: Sherrill +56 (Per @votehub.com)

82% Hispanic, insane, given that is a bit of a small sample size....

Ohio is definitely more likely than Iowa
North Carolina is probably already a likely victory imho
Maine as well

Blalaska
Blexas
Blohio
Blorth Carolina
Blaine

CONFIRMED: Georgia Democrats have won their first statewide elections for non-federal offices since *2006.*

The two Dem challengers, Alicia Johnson and Peter Hubbard, have ousted two GOP Republican commissioners on the state's utility commission.

It looks like public polls had a small Republican bias in VA and a relatively large one in NJ this year.

Its looking highly likely that Sherril will when NJ by over 10 points

Pennsylvania voters retain three state Supreme Court justices, preserving Democrats' 5-2 majority NBC News projects the incumbents survived an up-or-down vote to keep their seats on the battleground state’s high court.

BREAKING: Pennsylvania voters approve to retain three state Supreme Court justices, NBC News projects, preserving Democrats’ 5-2 majority on the state’s high court.

looks like democrats are about to flip two statewide elections with >20-point margins... in georgia

HOLY BUCKETS IF THE ECONOMY GETS WORSE CAN WE WIN THE SENATE??

What we know so far, 8:30pm

—Democrats flip VA-Gov & VA-LG.
—Also means Dems take VA trifecta.
—Dems in good shape to win NJ-Gov.
—Dems appear to flip 2 statewide offices in Georgia.
—JD Vance's half-brother loses in Cincinnati.
—Last GOPer in Orlando council gone.
—PA: Dem justices up big so far.