Felix Schenuit

July 2025 in review - looking at political developments in the EU institutions With a deeper look at the motion of censure against the Commission, an EP where the far-right is often part of the majority and Hungary is often outvoted in the Council.

New experiment - following the examples of many great colleagues such as @catherinedevries.bsky.social, @samuelmarclowe.bsky.social, @alanderminna.bsky.social and others, I am starting a new experimental substack 'EU Analytics', a (monthly?) look at EU developments from an institutional perspective.

The EPA cited my paper in their argument against the endangerment finding today. However, their point is completely backwards: my paper actually supports the EPA's 2009 range of 1.8C to 4C warming by 2100. www.nature.com/artic...

"Great. So let’s talk about this. If that’s a communication failure, I can’t tell the difference here between: “Every degree matters” and “We have been scaring you all unscientifically for decades in order to get you to move faster. But now that we’re moving slower, don’t worry too much.” Jenkins: To be clear, I wasn’t scaring people with that kind of rhetoric. The science is very clear: Get there as fast as possible. We are already seeing dangerous climate change around us today. The idea that there’s some safe zone and some dangerous zone, and there’s a threshold between the two, is just not scientifically true. The I.P.C.C. has never said that. There’s no consensus in the scientific documents that frame it that way. What they’ve said is that every degree involves increasing risk. That’s true — and so we have a sense of urgency. We want to make as much progress as possible, as rapidly as possible. That’s what the science says."

A very interesting moment in the latest Ezra Klein podcast with Jesse Jenkins and Jane Flegal. I've been thinking about this for a long time...

The special report on 1.5C never said that 1.5C was a magical threshold. It said that 1.5C was much better than 2C... 1/

Screenshot of Jesse Jenkins on The Ezra Klein Show with headline "Is Decarbonization Dead?"

Screenshot of Jane Flegal on The Ezra Klein Show with headline "Is Decarbonization Dead?"

Is decarbonization dead? @janeaflegal.bsky.social & I join Ezra Klein to talk through how Trump just shredded America's most ambitious climate policy, what survived, and where we go from here. Listen @nytimes.com or wherever you get your podcasts.

www.nytimes.com/2025/07/25/o...

Im ersten Halbjahr 2025 war Wind die stärkste Stromquelle in Deutschland. Solar hat erstmals die Braunkohle überholt und ist auf Platz zwei gelandet.
Weitere spannende Grafiken gibt es in unserer Halbjahresauswertung 2025.
www.energy-charts.info/downloads/St...

Rechts oben in der Ecke das Logo des Expertenrats, zentriert in großen Buchstaben "Wir suchen eine*n Generalsekretär*in - Bewerben Sie sich bis 31.07.2025", unten abschließend ein Balken in verschiedenen Farben, die für die sieben Sektoren stehen.

📢Der Expertenrat für Klimafragen sucht eine*n Generalsekretär*in für die Leitung der Geschäftsstelle in Berlin. Es erwartet Sie ein hochmotiviertes Team und eine spannende Tätigkeit zwischen Wissenschaft und Politik.​

🗓️Bewerbungsfrist 31.7.2025
🔗https://www.expertenrat-klima.de/ueber-uns/karriere/

Hier ist jetzt der gerade veröffentlichte Vorschlag der Europäischen Kommission: bsky.app/profile/feli...

yes indeed - sorry, had to update the post, here's the new one: bsky.app/profile/feli...

The legislative proposal for the 2040 target has landed:

▶️ 90% reduction of net GHG compared to 1990 (no separate target for removals!)
▶️ flexibilities as central element, incl. international credits & domestic CDR
▶️NDC will include an *indicative* 2035 figure

climate.ec.europa.eu/document/dow...

Wegweiser für die Weltbühne Unabhängig forschen, praxisorientiert denken, transparent kommunizieren: Was wissen
schaft­liche Außenpolitikberatung ist, was sie kann und wofür sie gebraucht wird.

Was macht gute wissenschaftliche Beratung für die Außenpolitik aus? Talkshowauftritte sicher nicht, Unabhängigkeit und Relevanz schon. Und dass Politik den Rat erhält, den sie braucht, nicht den, den sie sich wünscht.
Mein Essay in internationalepolitik.de
internationalepolitik.de/de/wegweiser...

Next EU climate target to allow carbon offsets from 2036, draft shows Controversial international carbon credits won’t be applicable to the EU carbon market, though.

Now free to read: 🚨 Draft 2040 climate target proposal 🚨

Commission to permit international carbon credit use from 2036, limited to 3pp of the 90 percent target. Excludes possibility of using them in EU carbon market.

www.politico.eu/article/eu-c...

After French officials insisted to us France wasn't trying to decouple the 2035 and 2040 targets, Pres. Macron himself confirmed our reporting.

From our morning newsletter: pro.politico.eu/news/euco-cl... (€)

Story from Weds that explains why decoupling matters: www.politico.eu/article/fran...

International Credits in EU Climate Policy: Old Conflicts, New Challenges In the discussions being held at EU level about the 2040 mitigation target, the role of international credits has recently taken centre stage....

🎯 As the EU shapes its 2040 climate target, international credits return to the spotlight.
@felixschenuit.bsky.social‬ warns: credit quality, permanence and scalability must be ensured – especially for carbon removal.
🔗 buff.ly/QLMG8AK
#EUClimatePolicy #CDR #Article6

@swp-europe.bsky.social @swp-berlin.org

New SWP publication: “International Credits in EU Climate Policy: Old Conflicts, New Challenges”

We currently see a renaissance of international credits in EU climate policy. In this piece, I discuss the politics of the 2040 target & the possible role for Art. 6

www.swp-berlin.org/publikation/...

Is “abundance” basically “development” with a glow-up?

What does it mean to talk about development when the Trump administration is basically on a project of reversing development?

and how should we be talking about “development” in 2025, anyway?

new article:

www.compactmag.com/article/the-...

Klimazertifikate statt Klimaschutz in der EU? Interview mit Felix Schenuit, SWP

Bei der nächsten Klimakonferenz COP30 im November in Brasilien müssen alle Länder neue nationale Klimaschutzpläne vorlegen. Welche Rolle Klimazertifikate dabei spielen könnten, erklärt @felixschenuit.bsky.social im DLF-Interview: www.deutschlandfunk.de/klimazertifi...

At the #SB62 #Juneclimatemeetings, “unilateral trade measures” – code for the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism ( #CBAM ) – have become a major point of contention.

(1/3)

Internationale Zertifikate in der EU-Klimapolitik: Alte Konflikte, neue Herausforderungen In den Diskussionen, die auf EU-Ebene über das neue Emissionsminderungsziel für 2040 geführt werden, rückte zuletzt die Rolle internationaler...

Welche Rolle können internationale Zertifikate in der EU Klimapolitik spielen und wie geht es mit dem 2040 Ziel/NDC weiter? Ein paar Gedanken dazu im DLF-Interview (@uedio.bsky.social)

▶️ www.deutschlandfunk.de/klimazertifi...

SWP-Publikation dazu www.swp-berlin.org/publikation/... @swp-berlin.org

Brussels drafts law outsourcing EU climate efforts to poorer countries An early version of the 2040 climate target aligns with a German proposal on limiting CO2 offsets, officials familiar with discussions say.

🚨 A draft proposal from the European Commission would allow the limited use of carbon credits — up to 3 percentage points of the 90% target — from projects in other countries to meet the EU's 2040 climate goal.

Scoop w/ @karlmathiesen.bsky.social

www.politico.eu/article/brus...

CCS in NOR, Klimazertifikate statt EU-Klimaschutz? Kommt ein PFAS-Verbot?

Es dürfte schwer für die EU werden, vor der COP30 noch ein Klimaziel (NDC) vorzulegen, sagt @felixschenuit.bsky.social. Warum das Glaubwürdigkeit kosten könnte & welchen Beitrag Klimazertifikate zum EU-Klimaschutz leisten könnten(!), darum geht es u.a. in der heutigen Ausgabe:

At #SB62 I’m now in the session on global stocktake procedural and logistical elements. Key disagreement revolves around role of IPCC—should IPCC AR7 publication timetables align with GST2? EU, EIG, AOSIS, LDCs and others say yes. Saudi Arabia and Russia say no.

At #SB62 negotiations have finally started after a prolonged agenda fight. This morning I’m in UAE Dialogue discussions—ie how the outcome of the first global stocktake of the Paris Agreement gets taken forward—and will share anything interesting on this 🧵

Opening plenary of the Subsidiary Bodies

#SB62 just adopted the agenda after two days of deliberation. Disagreement over the inclusion of items on #climatefinance and trade measures.

Pushback following the EU’s lacklustre communication around #CBAM has seeped into #UNFCCC negotiations.

#Juneclimatemeetings

In practice, it turns out to be a quite bureaucratic approach to climate policy. This real world aspect of carbon pricing is invisible in the models optimizing for cost efficient mitigation pathways.

Hungary and Slovakia have vetoed EU conclusions on energy security that support the phase-out of Russian fossil fuels by 2027.

As a result, the Polish presidency released a text endorsed by 25 member states.

🚨New in Nature Reviews Clean Technologies: Scaling carbon removal without delaying emission reductions

In this commentary, we maintain that smart policy design allows both to move together, avoiding the usual "mitigation deterrence" trap

Full thread unpacking our argument below 👇

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www.swp-berlin.org/karriere/ste...

Neue SWP-Publikation zur Rolle internationaler Zertifikate in der EU-Klimapolitik. Die EU steht vor der entscheidenden Frage, wie ihr neues Emissionsminderungsziel für 2040 aussehen soll - und welche Rolle Art. 6 Zertifikate dabei spielen können und sollen.
www.swp-berlin.org/publikation/...
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The Polish Presidency is taking the next step to break the link between the 2040 target and the 2035 NDC.
Contexte published the Note circulated by the Presidency last week.