This and recent layoff at Boston Metals are extremely worrying. In a few short years the US built up a huge stable of transformative industrial decarbonization startups, and it risks losing them and the future they represent to other countries or oblivion.
Clean cement startup Sublime laid off two-thirds of its workforce, just months after pausing construction of its Massachusetts factory. A federal funding rollback is to blame.
El Niño is coming, and it is shaping up to be a big one.
Over at The Climate Brink I've put together a compilation of the latest forecasts by different modeling groups. They suggest that we might see an event comparable in strength to what we saw in 2016: www.theclimatebrink....
Had a great time talking with @robinsonmeyer.bsky.social about why the IRA had limited political returns -- and the future of US climate policymaking heatmap.news/podcast/shif...
Droht CO2-Entnahme politisch zu scheitern?
Anregende und denkenswerte Gedanken von @felixschenuit.bsky.social für @libmod.de.
libmod.de/policy-paper...
Great proposal from @janeaflegal.bsky.social to shape federal rules and AI industry interests in ways that create the grid we need (deepens points made by @mliebreich.bsky.social in a SustainWhat chat) Links below 1/
Insightful perspective from @felixschenuit.bsky.social. In the debate between "don't worry about emissions, CDR will take care of everything" and "CDR only acts as mitigation deterrence", this short brief sets out clear near-term objectives that recognise political pressures on climate action.
Today on Volts: for the next few decades, we'll be in the "mid-transition," with clean energy systems growing as FF systems decline. Those FF systems will not decline smoothly -- there will be thresholds, "cliffs," where they suddenly crumble -- so maybe we should, I dunno, plan for it?
"Defending Net-Zero: A New Role for Carbon Dioxide Removal."
In a new policy brief for @libmod.de, I explore what the current wave of “climate backsliding” means for CDR and why both the narrative & policy priorities may need to shift.
German version: libmod.de/policy-paper... (ENG coming soon)
.. emphasising the strategic advantage of an industry prepared for renewed momentum in the 2030s, when the implications of overshoot pathways are understood more broadly and potentially addressed politically.
libmod.de/policy-paper... /end
4️⃣ Treat CDR as strategic industrial policy: In a political environment focused on security, resilience and competitiveness, CDR faces an uphill battle. Framing it as investment in technological leadership is crucial – ... /8
3️⃣ Be realistic about the role of the ETS: While the ETS integration may make sense in the long term, it's unlikely to provide reliable investment signals in the near term. If the ETS relies too much on CDR & CDR relies too much on the ETS, we may end up with a lose-lose dynamic. /7
2️⃣ Manage expectations, avoid a CDR soufflé: Recent years have seen strong hype around CDR technologies. If expectations inflate too far & projects fail to materialise, we risk a collapse in expectations that could damage both the CDR sector and, more importantly, the credibility of net-zero. /6
.. Demonstrating that CO₂ removal works in practice will become an important anchor for defending net-zero as a plausible target in increasingly climate-hostile policy processes. /5
This new framing would also require rethinking current policy priorities:
1️⃣ Focus on what can be realised in the short term: Rather than supporting a broad portfolio of methods, CDR policy should in the short-term prioritise methods that can deliver visible projects until 2030 .. /4
Instead of taking net-zero for granted & deriving the need for CDR, the logic should be reversed: because CDR is real, net-zero becomes a politically plausible target. In this way, it would be framed not only as a long-term necessity, but also as a way to defend the credibility of net-zero /3
For years, the dominant narrative was straightforward: Net-zero emissions will eventually require CDR to deal with residual emissions. But the political context has changed. Across many countries we are seeing climate backsliding – and net-zero targets are increasingly being questioned. /2
"Defending Net-Zero: A New Role for Carbon Dioxide Removal."
In a new policy brief for @libmod.de, I explore what the current wave of “climate backsliding” means for CDR and why both the narrative & policy priorities may need to shift.
German version: libmod.de/policy-paper... (ENG coming soon)
Well, that’s embarrassing.. The organizers of the EU Industry Summit in Antwerp greatly exaggerated the level of support for their criticism of the ETS.
Great reporting, @ziaweise.bsky.social. Especially getting companies on the record defending the EU-ETS.
After months of wrangling and an epic list of delays, the Commission has finally released its Industrial Accelerator Act.
This could turn into one of the EU’s most consequential industrial policy files in years - and the proposal is honestly not a bad place to start.
Some quick thoughts:
Excited to share my newly published article with Olivia Quinn in Climatic Change, which explains why the Inflation Reduction Act passed Congress when the Waxman-Markey bill failed.
It's open access so anyone can read it!
link.springer.com/article/10.1...
Euractiv reporting that the Industrial Accelerator Act, slated to be presented tomorrow, may be pushed back again after it failed to secure approval on Monday
At this point the sluggish "accelerator" is starting to feel like a piece of performance art...
newsletter.euractiv....
FYI, oil price continues to climb (more worrying, for now, than the surge in natural gas)... 🤔
Brent is still well below the 2022 peaks, but the pass-through to retail prices is relatively quick and visible (notably at the pump), so a bigger risk to inflation expectations.
SPD-Fraktionschef Matthias Miersch hat im Stern angekündigt, bei der Umsetzung der GEG-Eckpunkte auf einer wirksamen Regelung zum Mieterschutz zu bestehen. Wenn die SPD das wirklich durchsetzt, würden neben den MIetern auch das Klima profitieren. (1/7) www.stern.de/politik/deut...
NEW SHIFT KEY
I’m joined by @gbrew24.bsky.social to discuss the new US-Israeli war on Iran, different scenarios for how it could unfold (10 days vs five weeks), and how the war has already changed the global energy calculus: heatmap.news/podcast/shif...
Man muss die Einschätzungen von @lionhirth.bsky.social zur Solarförderung nicht teilen. Aber ihn quasi als Fossillobbyisten darzustellen, wie @jdoeschner.bsky.social es in diesem Thread tut, ist völlig daneben. (1/2)
The race to declare net-zero dead has begun. That’s deeply unfortunate.
If we want to stabilise temperature (regardless of the level), there is no alternative to achieve net-zero CO2. Writing it off would delay progress in many ways, incl. by undermining the case for investing in key technologies.
NEW SHIFT KEY
I’m joined by @janeaflegal.bsky.social to discuss the mess in the power sector: the two competing philosophies of running a grid and the mad rush to make everything about “electricity affordability”
heatmap.news/podcast/shif...
China automates while America hesitates. I have a piece in the NYT today arguing that America's strategy to compete with China in manufacturing is fundamentally misconceived — and that we're heading toward a reckoning we're not prepared for. 1/
www.nytimes.com/2026/02/24/o...
