@felixschenuit.bsky.social
researcher @SWP Berlin • IPCC AR 7 WGIII Lead Author • views my own
November was a month of high tension in the European Parliament.
I went through 51 final votes and 10 public Council votes for my latest EU-Analytics review – and found three different working majorities at play:
November 2025 was the third warmest November on record in ERA5 at 1.54C above preindustrial levels – below only the records set in the prior two years (2023 and 2024):
02.12.2025 06:42 — 👍 138 🔁 52 💬 3 📌 7
📣 PRESS RELEASE
#IPCC authors meet in Paris 🇫🇷 to begin drafting the Seventh Assessment Report
More than six hundred experts appointed to the three Working Groups of the IPCC are gathering in Paris this week to draft IPCC’s Seventh Assessment Report.
🔗 bit.ly/4ir09cC
G20 DECLARATION: Fascinating to see this doc explicitly "welcome" the "global stocktake" from COP28, which included the call to "transition away from fossil fuels"…
This comes after it proved impossible to secure similar language at COP30, which was also chaired by Brazil
COP31: It's now officially, officially going to Turkey / Australia
This 2-page doc sets out the division of labour:
Turkey = host and "COP31 president"
Australia = "president of negotiations"
unfccc.int/sites/def...
Start into a difficult final. At #COP30. To fight #climatechange. For a livable planet.
21.11.2025 13:36 — 👍 9 🔁 3 💬 0 📌 0
Bundesumweltminister Carsten Schneider, Brasiliens Präsident Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Umweltministerin Brasiliens Marina Silva Bild: BMUKN/ Felipe Vieira
Schützen, was uns schützt: Deutschland unterstützt den Tropenwaldschutzfonds mit 1 Mrd. Euro. Bundesminister Carsten Schneider erklärte: "Es geht um den Schutz der tropischen Regenwälder, der Lunge unserer Welt. Brasilien geht mit dem #TFFF einen neuen, innovativen Weg, den wir unterstützen." #COP30
20.11.2025 12:29 — 👍 11 🔁 5 💬 3 📌 1
Picture of a Brazilian firefighter of the State of Pará patrolling the hallway, shortly before the fire broke out at the COP 30 venue.
The fire at #COP30 has been contained
Delegates are advised that the venue will not reopen before 8:00pm, with further updates to be communicated in due time
COP30 PLENARY: COP pres André do Lago opens meeting
"I am encouraged by the productive wk we have had, and it is heartening to see your readiness for the step change needed as we prepare to enter the 2nd wk of our conf, moving towards a strong and successful conclusion of our work here in Belém"
www.das-parlament.de/wirtschaft/k...
Nach der ersten Verhandlungswoche gibt es gute Gründe für Optimismus: die Staaten verhandeln konstruktiv - auch wenn es natürlich noch viel Unterschiede gibt. Eines des wichtigen Verhandlungsthemen ist die Anpassung an den #Klimawandel. #COP30
NEW: Finalised COP30 agendas have been published, not including controversial items that various groups wanted to add
But NB those items are being discussed under "presidency consultations" & likely to rear up again tmrw
unfccc.int/sites/def...
unfccc.int/sites/def...
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A historic turning point for clean heating in Europe: For the first time, in the first half of 2025 sales of heat pumps in Germany have surpassed those of gas boilers.
This is a big milestone, demonstrating that the transition away from fossil fuels in our buildings is not just a future ambition.
10 Years After a Breakthrough Climate Pact, Here’s Where We Are
Great dissection of where the world stands on climate 10 years after Paris: better than ever; worse than needed.
Start here: www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
But lemme quibble a bit with the CO₂ₑ emissions pathways painted here.
A quick 🧵
Beim EU-Umweltrat ist es nach intensiven Verhandlungen gelungen, dass nun auch die EU ein verbindliches starkes Klimaziel für 2040 hat.
„Das ist ein wichtiger Fortschritt für das Klima & eine gute Nachricht für die dte. Wirtschaft, weil sie gleiche Wettbewerbsbedingungen hat", so Carsten Schneider.
The new UNEP report is out with the latest estimates of 2100 warming outcomes under current policies, NDCs, and net-zero targets. Here is how it compares to both the IPCC scenarios and other estimates (CAT and IEA, who will release their own updates soon!).
04.11.2025 18:05 — 👍 65 🔁 40 💬 3 📌 0
"Es ist jetzt keine exklusiv schlechte Zeit für internationalen Klimaschutz." –
Neue #Krisenpodcast-Folge mit
@jochenflasbarth.bsky.social, Umwelt-Staatssekretär und Deutschlands Verhandler beim Klimagipfel @cop30brazil.bsky.social
www.zeit.de/politik/2025... @zeit.de @poolartists.bsky.social
📣 PRESS RELEASE
#IPCC opens 63rd Plenary Session in Lima to advance work on key climate reports
During the session, which runs from 27 to 31 October, “the Panel needs to settle the important matter of the timelines for producing the reports,” said IPCC Chair Jim Skea.
🔗 https://bit.ly/48Qx3AG
Wording on the ETS-2 implementation framework:
23.10.2025 18:56 — 👍 6 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0
EUCO conclusions on the 2040 climate target and ETS-2. It is now up to the environment ministers to agree on a specific number (most likely net 90%) and the next steps at the ENVI Council on November 4.
23.10.2025 18:54 — 👍 9 🔁 2 💬 1 📌 0
Another big milestone for industrial decarbonisation:
Rondo Energy has just powered up what it calls the world’s largest industrial heat battery — a 100 MWh system delivering continuous high-temperature steam from renewable power.
www.rondo.com/news-press/r...
Zum Klimaentscheid in Hamburg geht gerade viel durcheinander - da wurde mitnichten das Klimaziel um 5 Jahre vorgezogen, es wurde für 2040 nur energiebedingte CO2-Neutralität, aber nicht Treibhausgasneutralität beschlossen - das sind rund 5% Unterschied. Und Internationale Schifffahrt ist außen vor.
13.10.2025 14:23 — 👍 35 🔁 11 💬 2 📌 0Happy to reshare our new Annual Review paper, which explores what it really means to exceed and return to 1.5 °C.
For many in the Global South, overshoot isn’t a temporary “phase” but an existential condition.
This piece asks what it means for justice, recovery & resilience in a world above 1.5 °C
Key Insights from "Hard to Abate, Impossible to Ignore" panel at @columbiabusiness.bsky.social:
Decarbonizing steel and cement with electrochemistry, green hydrogen, and a "geological hack"
business.columbia.edu/insights/cli...
Among the 22 states that drew higher-than-average shares of their power from wind and solar, 17 had below-average electricity prices in June, according to EIA data.
The government’s own data rebuts Trump Admin claims that wind and solar are driving up electricity prices, Politico reports share.google/RTIXPPQMXrTH...
“[T]he data say pretty much the opposite” of Trump & Secretary Wright’s claims.
Renewables (primarily solar and wind) have grown dramatically over the past five years while other electricity sources have been relatively flat. Renewables are on track to generate more electricity than coal in 2025 (and already have over H1 of the year):
07.10.2025 18:07 — 👍 103 🔁 26 💬 3 📌 0
DOE appears set to terminate tens of millions in funding for Project Cypress and South Texas Direct Air Capture Hub, the two big projects in the US DAC Hubs program.
07.10.2025 18:30 — 👍 22 🔁 15 💬 4 📌 5
📣 Attention: Early-career researchers from developing countries & countries in transition!
Are you interested in becoming a Chapter Scientist and supporting author teams for #IPCC’s Seventh Assessment Report?
Apply by 18 Oct 2025
🔗 www.ipcc.ch/2025/10/07/c...
Good News: Erstmals wurde weltweit mehr Strom aus Erneuerbaren erzeugt als aus Kohle. Und: Solar- und Windenergie haben im ersten Halbjahr 2025 den kompletten, weltweiten zusätzlichen Strombedarf gedeckt + einen kleinen Anteil Kohle- und Gasstrom aus den Netzen gedrängt.
table.media/climate/news...
Two curves show how the median is different depending on the scenario.
We finally have a new paper out looking at how summary statistics from the AR6 scenario database are highly dependent on the sampling of the database.
High profile statistics are often more representative of the model fingerprint, not the physics.
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
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How can the #IPCC navigate generative AI?
What does it mean for scientific assessment more broadly?
New working paper looks at scenarios for AI adoption & resistance, w/ @dralaaclimate.bsky.social @shinasayama.bsky.social and Oliver Geden
Reflections welcome!
www.swp-berlin.org/publications...
