Christopher Leisinger

In order for the #EuropeanUnion to achieve its ambitious #goals, it must make its #climatepolicy more efficient, send stable price signals to businesses, and ensure long-term #financing for the #energytransition, conclude Ariadne researchers in a new #background.
👉 ariadneprojekt.de/en/news-en/n...

Some thoughts on the EU-US deal Another holiday edition

Some holiday thoughts on the EU-US "deal" ...

[something to do while the baby has a nap]

mostfavourednation.substack.com/p/some-thoug...

The economic impact of Trump’s tariffs on Europe: an initial assessment It is likely that Trump’s tariffs will be a limited hit to Europe, though some regions and industries could suffer and may need protective measures

Not exactly a good day (but perhaps a timely one) to revisit this recent Bruegel analysis on the economic consequences of Trump tariffs on the EU, by @niclaspoitiers.bsky.social and colleagues.

www.bruegel.org/analysis/eco...

Einblicke in Bürger*innenperspektiven zur Klimapolitik vom #Ariadne Gipfel: CO2-Preis und Förderprogramme werden befürwortet - wenn sie sozial gerecht ausgestaltet sind.

Wichtig auch: Deliberationsformate verschieben die Debatte. Nicht ob, sondern *wie* wir Klimaschutz umsetzen, rückt ins Zentrum.

Die #Ariadne-Bürgerkonferenz zeigt: Die gesellschaftliche #Akzeptanz für #Klimaschutzmaßnahmen steigt, wenn die #Verteilung von #Kosten und #Nutzen als gerecht empfunden werden – auch mit Blick auf künftige #Generationen.
Hier geht's zum vollständigen #Report👉 ariadneprojekt.de/publikation/...

EU and China released a joint statement on climate, pledging to deliver 2035 NDCs ahead of COP30.

Well, words on paper… but definitely ramping up reputational pressure on EU Member States to settle on new climate targets after summer.

www.consilium.europa.eu/de/press/pre...

🔥 ⚖️ 🌐HAPPENING NOW: Historic #ClimateJustice Ruling being delivered by the 🇺🇳 🧑‍⚖️ International Court of Justice.
🚨This ruling could signal a new dawn for climate law & accountability
📝 🧵 Live thread below with context, summary & analysis 👇
#ClimateJusticeAO #AOLetsGo

We’re delighted to announce the appointment of Nigel Topping CMG the new Chair of the Committee from 23 July. Read the announcement here ⬇️ www.theccc.org.uk/2025/07/22/n...

National minimum prices deserve more attention in this context - esp. in DE, the major ETS2 emitter with a rel. high domestic price already in place.

A DE top-up would be a fair contribution to emission cuts. More importantly, it could lower ETS2 prices and support the system's political viability.

Merz warns that corporate car CO2 standards threaten core industrial competences.

Quite unfortunate to see the Chancellor reinforces the tale that climate policy leads to deindustrialization - a mindset that itself risks turning Europe into an industrial museum rather than net-zero technology hub.

Working paper update 👇

Sharp synthesis of the 2024 landmark reports by Letta and Draghi and their implications for the EU's economic agenda.

Now, the 2028-34 MFF negotiations will test whether the EU truly backs its new competitiveness agenda - with sufficient financial commitment and, crucially, political legitimacy.

Much more sweeping is the change that the COM has just proposed a massive shift in the shares in the budget away from regional and agricultural policy towards common spending on things like decarbonisation or innovation. This is an important step to match the EU budget and proclaimed EU priorities.

Socialists to support von der Leyen in no-confidence vote after she backs down on EU budget European Commission president expected to easily survive ― but she has made two major concessions.

The Socialists in the EP have leveraged a no-confidence vote put up by the far right to effectively gut a major part of the reform of the EU budget. Stunning development that further imperils the prospect for a major MFF reform. I had hopes that this time would be different. But I was naive.
Thread:

4/ This could mean that two of the slowest-moving sectors end up being fed with "smelly" credits - potentially creating a political constellation where policymakers face pressure to drive real transformation where progress has been sluggish.

Let's see where things go over the next 18 months.

3/ Second, how will costs and potential price benefits be distributed - across sectors/firms, Member States, EU?

If, as the Commission envisions, international credits are not directly integrated into the ETS, then under the current architecture, agriculture and LULUCF are the likely recipients.

2/ If, as the EC proposes, safeguards are tight and int'l credits are costly, the domestic net target may effectively near 90%.

Some MS push for higher limits on int'l credits. But with a financing debate approaching, I'd argue that large-scale use A6 credits will be off the table soon.

Short 🧵 on the #EU 2040 climate target. Now that some dust has settled, two key questions on the role of #Article6 credits stand out:

To what extent will the EU and Member States actually rely on them for cost containment? How will costs and (potential) benefits be distributed?

3% int’l credits in the EU’s 2040 climate target would add ~140 MtCO2 (+30% than 90% domestic-only).

But implementation details matter: If phased in from 2036-40 and phased out by 2050, int’l credits could even lead to an extra year of EU emissions.

www.oeko.de/fileadmin/oe...

Sündenbock Klimapolitik Über Klimaschutz und die verschleppten Strukturprobleme der deutschen Industrie

Hier der Link zu unserem Beitrag: www.kas.de/de/web/die-p...

Ottmar #Edenhofer
@ckilimann.bsky.social
@pik-potsdam.bsky.social

Klimaschutz ist Strukturpolitik.

Die EU muss ihre Kernkompetenzen stärken und neue Wirtschaftszweige fördern. Gerade bei industriellen CO2-Entnahmen eröffnen sich Chancen. Kurzfristige Anschubinstrumente beschleunigen den Markthochlauf; langfristig sichert der EU-Emissionshandel die Finanzierung.

Klimaschutz ist Sicherheitspolitik.

Fossile Exporte füllen Russlands Kriegskasse. Jeder Euro für die Klimawende stärkt Europas Energiesouveränität - und entlastet direkt die Verteidigungshaushalte. Insbesondere das ETS2 ist mehr als Klimapolitik: Es ist Teil einer europäischen Sicherheitsstrategie.

Klimaschutz ist Wohlstandssicherung.

Die wirtschaftlichen Schäden des Klimawandels sind weit höher als bislang angenommen. Sie dürften die Kosten wirksamer Klimapolitik um ein Vielfaches übertreffen. Die sozialen Kosten von CO2 könnten sogar über 1.000€ liegen - weit über heutigen CO2-Preisen.

🧵 Sündenbock Klimapolitik? Klimaschutz wird zuletzt oft für Wettbewerbsverluste, Deindustrialisierung & Wohlstandseinbußen verantwortlich gemacht.

In @politischemeinung.bsky.social argumentieren wir: Das ist irreführend. Aus mindestens 3 Gründen führt an einem ehrgeizigen Klimakurs kein Weg vorbei.

German Social Democracy is not dead folks

Next EU climate target to allow carbon offsets from 2036, draft shows Controversial international carbon credits won’t be applicable to the EU carbon market, though.

Now free to read: 🚨 Draft 2040 climate target proposal 🚨

Commission to permit international carbon credit use from 2036, limited to 3pp of the 90 percent target. Excludes possibility of using them in EU carbon market.

www.politico.eu/article/eu-c...

Ursula von der Leyen amputates the Green Deal to save its life Last year’s European election reshaped EU politics. The Commission president must acknowledge a new alternative right-wing majority even as she fights to preserve her signature political achi…

This is a good read on the high risk approach of VDL to save her green legacy from her own parties hostility and revanchism; if she isn’t going to draw a line soon and be able to enforce it there will be little left of it

www.politico.eu/article/ursu...

❗ This is BIG news for China #Carbon market
🌟 China released NEW high-level policy (Opinions) to strengthen the national Carbon market

- Expand ETS to All sectors and Aviation by 2027
- Absolute Cap for ETS by 2030, starting in 2027 for sectors with steady emissions

Headlines on international media report on 3 (or 2) years left before we exhaust the 1.5C carbon budget.
How did this year’s IGCC estimate of the remaining carbon budget end up with a 74% reduction compared to the latest @IPCC_CH report? A short deeper dive. /1

The remaining 1.5C carbon budget could be just 130 GtCO2. At 2024 emissions, it will be gone in ca. 3 years.

Carbon removals are no longer optional. "Clean up the mess!" isn't just good advice - it's the new imperative of climate policy.