Joe Janzen

The Corn Market Works to Explain Itself - farmdoc daily Joe Janzen - Despite USDA projections showing low corn ending stocks for 2025/26, new-crop December corn futures remain historically low. Markets are pricing in higher yields than USDA's 181…

My latest for @farmdocdaily: How big is the 2025 US corn crop? Or at least, how much of a yield increase is the market currently pricing in to new-crop futures prices? It might not be six bushels more than current USDA estimates, but it's close. farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/07/the-...

Our bananas growing in a little cluster at the top of our banana tree, which is maybe 5 feet high. They're unripe but will be picked pretty soon.

Our banana tree growing in our kind of foyer-ish-type space. You can see the bananas themselves peeking out from the top.

I'm here to tell you it's possible to grow bananas in New England in your home.

I'm also here to tell you that purely in terms of time/labor it's the dumbest thing I've ever done, and that people who think indoor farming will ever make a major contribution to the global food system are nuts.

Crytpo: There's just no legit use case for it. But, man, are these bros lobbied up. Our looonnnggg take on why private digital currencies and the blockchain are an accident going out to happen.

"To give a sense of the scale of the inefficiency, analysis we did in the Biden administration gave an example of Walmart’s blockchain usage that was up to 50 million times (not a typo) less efficient, in terms of compute, than a traditional database configuration."

US Amb to Canada, last week: annexation saga is “over”—“Move on. If the Canadians want to keep talking about it—that's their business. I'm not talking about it; Donald Trump is not talking about it. We've got too much on our plate"

Trump, today: “They are considering the offer!”

Doing that sports fan thing where I occasionally remember last night's Game 7 and then have to stop what I'm doing to shake my head and go "holy crap, that actually happened".

We had an excellent keynote from Fred Seamon of CME Group. He highlighted the need for continued research on price and trading dynamics for ag commodities. If you are interested in presenting and attending next year, look for the Call for Papers on our website in the fall.

The 2025 NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis (farmdoc.illinois.edu/nccc134/attend) met this week at the Illini Center in downtown Chicago. We had 54 researchers attending and 25 presentations on new research in commodity markets.

Quiet Signals: Why Boring Crop Reports Matter - farmdoc daily Joe Janzen - Joe Janzen - The USDA's monthly WASDE reports sometimes appear uneventful, but they systematically track agricultural commodity supply and demand changes. Despite some seemingly quiet…

Get ready for today's USDA WASDE report release. Read my recent article for farmdocDaily and remember that the April report tends not to move markets, and that's okay.

Last chance to register for the NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis. This academic conference on agricultural commodity markets meets April 14-15 at the Illini Center in Chicago. Program, venue and hotel info, and registration here: buff.ly/3Qx6Qg3

Arise, centrist dads!

Opinion | ‘Reciprocal’ Tariffs Make No Sense How is it in America’s national interest to let other countries decide what duties we pay?

President Trump's ‘reciprocal’ tariffs make no sense.

How is it in America’s national interest to let other countries decide what duties we pay?

by Doug Irwin
www.wsj.com/opinion/reci...

You will not want to miss this opportunity to learn about the latest research and broaden your professional network. Sign up now and join us in Chicago!

The program features 26 exciting papers from academic and industry researchers from the United States, Europe, and South America. There will be a group dinner on Monday night and a keynote lunch address on Tuesday from Fred Seamon, Executive Director of Agricultural Products at CME Group.

Attend - farmdoc %

This longstanding conference, which focuses on agricultural markets and trading, meets April 14-15 at the Illini Center in Chicago. Find the program, venue and hotel information, and conference registration here: https://buff.ly/3Qx6Qg3

Interested in research on commodity markets/trading/pricing? We are just 8 weeks away from the latest iteration of the NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.

Clarence Beeks of Lyndhurst Security - Trading Places

Elon hired Clarence Beeks of Lyndhurst Security to deliver the crop estimates on time with no deviations.

Poem by Joseph Fasano

Peace, order, and Overtime Goals🇨🇦🇨🇦🇨🇦

I'll cover the recent rally in crop prices, short-run prospects for US biofuels, the state of the US corn and soybean export program, South American crop progress, whether US farmers will really cram in more corn acres in 2025, and our latest research on farm marketing activity.

Events Archive - farmdoc daily Joe Janzen will discuss corn, soybean, and wheat price prospects for 2025. He will provide an update on current global market fundamentals and consider what price expectations based on the latest…

Hear my latest thoughts on the grain markets. Todd Gleason and I will be live tomorrow morning with the first of our Illinois Farm Economics Summit online webinars. Register here: https://buff.ly/4aln8Sf

We tried this with wheat for 70 years or so. Price effects were… hard to come by.

What's the relevance to farmdocDaily's audience, largely concentrated in US agriculture? Peru's blueberry boom has important connections to international trade policy and agricultural labor and migration. Both will be huge issues for US and world ag in the next decade.

Peru's remarkable success in blueberry production stems from ideal growing conditions, strategic harvest timing, private sector and government investment, and notably, its empowerment of rural women workers, who comprise 40% of the workforce in this booming agricultural sector.

From zero to global leader in just a decade, Peru’s extraordinary rise in blueberry production has changed the global market. But it required a combination of amenable conditions that Nicolas identifies and describes in the article.

The next in this series is from Nicolas Pazos, PhD student, who is interested in agricultural transformation in South America and its upstream and downstream impacts on agricultural value chains. He's focused on the fascinating boom in blueberry production in Peru: https://buff.ly/40hDSq8

Peru’s Blueberry Boom: More Land, More Labor, More Berries to Savor - farmdoc daily Nicolás Pazos and Joe Janzen - Joe Janzen - From zero to global leader in just a decade, Peru's extraordinary rise in blueberry production has changed the global market. The country's success stems…

Every year, grad students in my ACE 527 class take their research on agricultural and resource markets and adapt it for non-academic audiences. Then we share their work with the world over the holidays on @farmdocdaily.

However, farm price risk management involves many tools including cash marketing, forward contracting, plus government-backed crop insurance crop insurance and commodity programs.

We find farms who trade futures directly don’t achieve significantly better marketing outcomes than their peers. This doesn't mean that futures markets serve no purpose. Farmers derive massive benefits from price discovery provided by futures.

Despite being touted as essential risk management tools, futures and options markets are rarely use directly by farmers. Only 15% of Illinois grain farmers maintain a futures brokerage account, a number roughly consistent with national data. Even among large farms, fewer than half trade futures.

Risk Management and Reality: Farmers’ Use of Futures Markets - farmdoc daily Aayush Raj Dhakal and Joe Janzen - Joe Janzen - Despite being touted as essential risk management tools, futures and options markets are rarely use directly by farmers. Only 15% of Illinois grain…

The second in this series is from Aayush Raj Dhakal, PhD student, who is interested in how farms and other firms in agricultural supply chains use commodity futures and options markets: https://buff.ly/4iSdquB