Secretive Q

Oh I see. We're having slightly different conversations. I was pointing out in which districts inflation due to supply shortages would be politically useful

Temptation Special Blend: 40 dates and 40 nuts in the dessert

Oh, inflation is multi- factorial. But, insofar as supply shortages cause inflation, the vandalism is not causing inflation where it needs to happen

That's the wildest part. I can't even tell when he's lying or merely deluded.

His main political risk is inflation in Red States.

Unfortunately, all the protests/sabotage happens in bluer districts, which raises prices there (through shortages or increased replacement of damaged goods).

But, sabotage-induced shortages (if caught) in Red States will build gumption. It's hard

I made a list of countries by number of billionaires (and billionaires per capita) and then scanned down the list to see what number of billionaires made a country one where I'd voluntarily move to.

I'm not sure 'zero' is the winning move, tbh.

Er, just learn the difference between foreign ownership and foreign investment.

An oilfield still counts as GDP even if it's 100% foreign owned, but allowing outside capital to BOOST investment is a good idea.

Just avoid selling rent-seeking assets to outside actors.

But I have also denied them my Netflix dollars. Sure, $10 per month, but that same $10 will compound in my economy if I spend it wisely and will also deny its ability to compound in theirs.

We have known of the Trump threat since 2015, and should have been psychologically preparing

I tend to think in terms of small %ages or in small budgetary amounts.

Using debit instead of credit at local businesses costs me about $100 annually in opportunity cost

Canada underspends on science by about 0.6% of GDP, which is roughly 1 hour of my wages per month to a research charity.

One trick is to make stepwise changes that make small differences, and then can propagate as people mimic your behavior.

Remember, a switched vote is more valuable than a suppressed vote. Same with dollars, except dollars also deliver an investment value to the spender as well as the receiver

I never understood how they thought that combining presidential immunity with the pardon powers was a good idea.

Hey, thank you for bumping this!

Trump's true political weakness is inflation in red states (especially if it's caused by supply shortages that cannot be tied to a 'group that can be blamed'). Unfortunately, the vandalism in blue states just causes supply constraints there - the reds don't care or notice.

Consumers can move more quickly than governments, and spending is counted twice (kinda like votes). A switched vote requires two additional votes to compensate for, and the same with dollars.

If you spend into regions with CAD, they'll have CAD to buy back our stuff. Samsung over Apple, fer ex.

Except that you also want to hear what he's saying, because chances are that he's communicating the threat in a variety of ways. So ... have at least one person in your social circle listening to him and clipping him for threat signals.

Vandalism damage in blue districts will only cause inflation there, and the red districts won't care. It's only inflation in the red districts that are his political weakness, as long as it cannot be linked to an exogenous threat that builds gumption

But most of the spending needs to be pivoting to pro-productivity, hiring Canadians to build things of long-term value. That's why I recommended science charities. Annexation will be economic, so that requires the most effort

I'll recommend Stephen Marche's podcast "gloves off". The analysis is that insurgent violence would be so terrible that it wouldn't be worth it at all. And at least some of his experts realize that.

Although people building military resilience adds to the deterrence, so it's not wasted.

The odds of them militarily attacking us are basically zero, because they have enough qualified people at the top to realize how that destructive that is.

The annexation will be economic. The defense is economic

But the best way to protect Emergency Services is to not need them yourself. So have a stockpile of product of Canada canned foods. A stockpile of water. Backup batteries for your cell phone. Because if you're not part of the emergency rationing lines, they're smaller

Ideally this comes from non-productive spending, and even more ideally comes from non-productive spending that would go into the United States. Netflix into the Alzheimer's society, for example. For reals, that's my suggestion

You need to pivot about 1% of your spending into actual defensive activities that build personal resilience, the resilience of your community, and the resilience of your country's economy.

I'd not put it as 'doubtful', it'll happen if he's politically strong enough for it to happen. That's quibbling on my end on semantics, though.

Thanks for being a real person online haha!

I'd hope the courts would say "you cannot be elected to the office of president, ergo you cannot be elected to the office of Speaker"

We'll see

Definitely an end-run around the vibe. Requires two people to step down, as far as I can tell, and that would be the 'backroom deals' I was referring to.

A bit terrifying that it's openly talked about.

It's quite against the vibe of the Amendment, so would require a lot of complicity with the courts and every state putting him in their ballots AND backroom deals where he has people above him quitting.

But, he's trying to normalize this as 'reasonable' in his supporting states, for sure.

It's a needle to thread. Trump doesn't understand the constitution and questions should be asked of him to show that to us, BUT also needs to be immediately confronted instead of his view entering his base's zeitgeist

But every failed batch of chicken eggs causing Supply constraints, every popped tire that causes increased costs and slower deliveries would eventually cause Supply related inflation. And they notice

Oh yeah, it's that deep commitment that's the issue. Although people will always notice their pocketbook, as long as it can't be blamed on exogenous threats.

I think his only real political weakness would be inflation in Republican voting States, as long as that inflation is caused by a supply constraints that cannot be easily tied to intentional sabotage