Ensembleator

Dramatic evening sky #YVR. Almost a full moon out there too.

I think you will be fine. There's a small chance of the odd bolt or two in the valley early morning as the core of the upper low moves overhead.

41.6 mm/2 hours in Powell River on BC’s Sunshine Coast with 3 consecutive hours of thunderstorms. 😮

A month's worth of rain in 2 hours!

H/T Thierry Goose for stats
H/T Chris Huizer for video

#BCstorm #BCwx @ensembleator.bsky.social

No doubt that caused some damage from erosion. The while town is built on a slope.

Intense rainfall rates in Powell River this evening under a slowly moving, powerful (for the coast) thunderstorm. At high rainfall rates the Tipping Bucket (TBRG) is unreliable so we prefer the weighing gauge (WG).

61+ dBZ core reflectivity in the cell over Texada. Hail,yah!

Towering cumulus, soon to be cumulonimbus, building over the north shore mountains #YVR. Taken from the top deck of the VPL.

Water vapour imagery nicely illustrates the bowling ball dropping down the coast, to be over the Valley tmrw AM. Instability increases and showers redevelop this PM #YVR. Gusty SE winds. Lightning likely N Shore Alpine/STS PM-eve.
Vrbl skies/a few sprinkles Thu. Mainly sunny Fri. Sun/warm Sat.

So that's why the N Shore alpine is a better bet than further S.

2/2 Forcing: But the N shore provides the physical lift that sfc heating can not. And moisture/mass convergence, as sfc winds are deflected to the E as they run into the Mtn base.

1/2 Heating. Most of the day is going to be cloudy and the surface only heats up enough for marginal instability. The low level flow near YVR is over Boundary Bay moving into the city where water temp is ~20C. Convective temp is about 19C at 00z. Not much heft to get it off the surface.

Euro EFI showing a steady increase run to run of precip expected thru the next 24 H #YVR w/a mean value of 22 mm thru 5 PM tomorrow. Keep in mind monthly avg rain at YVR AP is 36 mm and 49 at the Harbour. So somewhere around 2 weeks of avg rainfall expected thru tmrw.

Upr trof passing thru #YVR w/just a sprinkle or 2 thru this eve. Upr low WNW of Haida Gwaii dropping SSE to ovr #YYJ by Thu AM. Shwrs redvlp overnight, tapering off Thu AM. Decent instability for these parts Wed PM w/chc ⚡ continuing into the eve, mainly lcl Alpine. Clrg/windy Thu PM. Sun Fri

There's some instability in the mdls but probably any lighting would be in the alpine

Contrail

July 2025 was the third warmest July on record in the ERA5 dataset at 1.25C above preindustrial levels, though it was notably down from the prior records set in 2023 and 2024.

In spite of a fairly significant fire near Cameron Lake on VI, another on the E slopes of Harrison Lake, and one in the Eastern Olympics, AQ is relatively good in #YVR, just edging into a sensitivity zone for highly sensitive folks. Should remain the same thru the day.

Low cld trapped under an inversion ovr the LM tdy will slowly break up as high cld increases from a trof approaching 130W. Cldy Tue w/a steady E wind. Clds, chc shwrs Wed #YVR as a dvlpg upr low (now 56N 140W) tracks SE thru SWBC. Vrbl skies, dry Thu-Sat. Sunny, warm Sun w/a vry stg ridge ofshr

Toilet bowl marine cloud is little stubborn this AM but it is thinning out for more sun this PM. Fresh and coolish #YVR

Quick before I head up N: Marine cloud expanding over the Vly this AM as bkn mid/high cloud approaches from the SW. Clds this AM improvg to vrbl skies ltr this AM. It will be and feel cooler w/less bright sun. A cooler regime w/similar vrbl skies thru mid week, and cooler w/highs close to avg (22C)

It's been rex-blocked for more than a week with a strong ridge to the N

It really has been in a rut!

Back to AM forecasts mid next week after this stretch on the NW Desk

#YVR under a SW flow this eve and beginning to fall under the influence of what is a warm-valued upper trof approaching fm the W. So expect a subtle cool down this wknd of a few C, AM marine cloud, then variable skies as mid and upr level convective clouds loft by. Ideal weather for cloud watching.

Focused on the lightning plagued NW today. For #YVR now that I have a min, looks like the ⚡ risk overnight and early tmrw AM stays Abby and E. Some marine low cloud and mid cloud about tmrw AM then bcmg mainly sunny. AM cld then mainly sunny Sat, a little cooler. More cld Sun and 1 or 2 C cooler.

Yes a little and some cloud cover will help

A bit of cirroCu out there #YVR tells us the flow is bcmg more southerly and unstable. Instability and isolated Cbs should stick to the Alpine today, mainly E. It gets into the N Cascades by early Fri AM but then mdls have it fizzling out. So ⚡risk remains equivocal for the City thru Fri AM.

Doin the right thing Jay!

While we await the potential arrival of a Tsunami along the W coast (not including #YVR) here's another look at our Gulf of AK gyre, now looking more bagel-like, and massive complexes of T-storms over the US W. Sunny, warm tmrw, Thu. Still looking @ potential for ⚡locally Fri. Cooler/clds wknd.