Ensembleator

Great site, thank you. It will be interesting to see what happens if indeed there is an El niño onset JJA.

Rain has arrived #YVR. Plume extnds well SW of HI. Luckily it drops S fairly quickly, followed by decreasing temps aloft in a SW flow as an upr low 49N 152 W sloly shifts E. So rain tdy, tapering PM. Some clrg ovnite w/areas AM fg Sun then partial sun. Mon/Tue unsettled/shwry. 🌞 Wed. 🌧️/wind Thu

Maybe!

You have to wonder: at what point to we hit the cliff?

Cooler yes, alpine snow, probably. For the lowlands the problem is the pattern. It's forecasting a trough with westerly flow over SWBC. We need flow from the N.

Too far in the future to be useful guidance

Fast line of ACC on radar, moving with the wind aloft. Dry beneath the clouds so should just be a virga producer or just a few drops

And yet the AO forecast is neutral to slightly positive. That would mean the cold air is likelier to stay bottled up to the N. We shall see. Clock is ticking...

PNA tells you about the flow tendency/pattern, but not much in terms of weather details. What it is well correlated with is more frequent coast-crossing disturbances in an enhanced zonal (more E-W than N-S) jetstream and an overall coastal mean upper trough, so cooler. So tends to wetter/cooler

The edge of some mid cloud approaches #YVR but enjoy what will be a lovely spring-like day before our return to the usual dismal pattern tomorrow

Not really in the back country. Weak crust with high break-thru potential. On the groomed sfcs it was slush yesterday. But a chance to ski at 16C in Feb? Priceless :)

Vrbl skies tdy #YVR as a weak upr trough to the N drags thru SW flow aloft. Next plume of subtrop moisture to the SW lands on SWBC ovnite w/rain taperg to shwrs Sat PM as the plume slumps to the S. Thereafter, flow cools as a major upr low 48N 154 W shifts E. Vrbl skies Sun. Unsettled/cooler Mon-Thu

The smooth and surreal snow surface is the result of recent rain on snow events

View from near the summit of Pump Peak Mt Seymour Park today. In spite of the snow cover it was def T-shirt weather up there

In a well mixed early summer atmosphere, the high in Squamish today would be near 30C.

🔥!

Closest sounding to #YVR indicates a very warm Alpine today. 20C this AM at 400 m above Quillayute WA. Expect mid teems N Shore peaks this PM.

Patchy fog inland this AM #YVR; more xtensiv cst. Bcmg mainly 🌞 tdy w/a few mid clds movg around an upr rdg centred ovr NE NV. Mild. Rdg retreats Fri; mainly cldy. Wv in a moist SW flow hits the cst Sat for hvy rain taperg to shwrs Sun. Shwrs, cooler Mon. Unsettled/breezy/cool thru nxt wk. Alpine ❄️

Look for the light blue lines that don’t move with the animation. Those are boundaries and coastlines

Pretty nice day #YVR. Hope you could get outside.

Just wow. Perfecto!

Night time lows sure have been mild...

That's what it looks like but don't trust any details beyond a week.

Let's hope so. We need snow.

Atmospheric Dynamics. - AO since late Dec and +PNA since early Jan. +PNA generally means more blocking to the south, pushing the storm track NW toward Alaska, w/an increased chance of cooler, drier periods unless another forcing (e.g., –AO) disrupts the ridge. Which it has periodically.

SWBC undr a vry mild SW flow aloft. Abv a shallow inversion, dry up to 500 mb (6 km). Vrbl hi/mid cld tdy; vry mild #YVR. Fog likely Thu AM as skies clr ovnite undr a bldg upr rdg then mainly sunny. Areas AM fog Fri. Clds slowly increase PM. Rain Sat taperg to shwrs Sun. Some clrg/cooler Mon/Tue

Yes, but it's still within a westerly which is good for alpine snow prospects but not so good for sea level snow

Big flow regime change between the next week and the week after #YVR in a climate model's weeklies. From very anomalous ridge to run of the mill trough. Troughing seems to persist into week-3. Potentially good news for SWBC alpine snowpack, after the weekend...

Noticeably unusual is that the Rex block (an upper ridge/high over an upper trough/low) influencing SWBC weather thru the rest of this work week is btn a high over the USSW and a low off Baja CA MX

Deep sfc/upr low to the W (48N 160W) w/an upr ridge xtendng N alg the cst this AM, and a rich NNE-SSW plume of moisture btn them. The W coast rdg is Rex blocked thru Fri. Vrbl skies tdy-Wed #YVR. Chc shwr this eve. Mild. More sun Thu w/chc AM fg. Clds + Fri PM, Rain Sat, and a coolng trend starts