Conor Ruth

How the world stopped worrying and learned to love AI Politicians have shifted from AI regulation to innovation — and the industry loves it.

www.politico.eu/article/ai-a...

Housing is the greatest domestic challenge we face today – Fixing it requires action, not rhetoric The most recent information shows that from 2020 up to the middle of 2024, 3,444 new homes had been completed in Wexford, a remarkable increase from the 1,797 in the previous four years. And in the fi...

For anyone unfamiliar with new housing minister James Browne TD and what approach he may take, he wrote this piece for local Wexford newspapers at the beginning of the year which may offer some insight into his thinking on housing 👇🏼

www.independent.ie/regionals/we...

I expect Ardagh to be appointed to a junior ministry next week, while Dolan may also be considered for promotion.

Meanwhile, in 2020, Norma Foley nominated Martin for Taoiseach and was remarkably - given her status as a first-time TD - appointed to Cabinet later that day. James O’Connor also nominated Martin that day, but remained on the backbenches throughout the last Dáil.

No coincidence that Albert Dolan and Catherine Ardagh - both widely viewed as rising stars within FF - were chosen to nominate Mícheál Martin for Taoiseach.

Looking back to 2016, Lisa Chambers and Thomas Byrne nominated Martin - both were appointed to the Fianna Fáil frontbench soon after.

The answer? Not long!

Is the relationship between the Ceann Comhairle and the opposition irreparable? Difficult to see a route for the CC to gain the confidence of the Dáil after today’s open revolt.

YouTube video by PoliticsJOE Raging Stephen Flynn totally loses it as Lindsay Hoyle goes missing after Gaza vote debacle

Remarkable. Somewhat reminds me of some of those chaotic Brexit votes in Parliament, or the final days of Truss! How long before we see a Flynn-esque contribution directed at the Ceann Comhairle!? youtu.be/1lmzfSZKLVA?...

Tús maith leath na hoibre!

Happy New Year to the League of Ireland!

Immense!

'Good people all': the Xmas carol from Enniscorthy (or Wexford) Whether you know it as the Wexford or Enniscorthy Carol, this beautiful composition has travelled the world

www.rte.ie/brainstorm/2...

For me, the key question is not *whether* MPs should be active on local issues, case work, etc - but rather what the correct balance to strike is between those issues and national, legislative matters.

However, MPs' constituency duties can positively feed in to their legislative function - and detachment from constituents is not conducive to strong trust or faith in the democratic system.

That said, trust in politics has continued to decline despite the perceived increased focus on 'the local'.

This is rather unfathomable in Irish politics, with our localist political culture and electoral system featuring intra-party competition.

There are certainly pertinent questions to be asked about whether the constituency focus is the most effective use of national parliamentarians' time.

Britain’s Winston Churchill shortage Westminster is becoming a local place for local people — and that means fewer star politicians.

This is excellent from @estwebber.bsky.social.

I've long been fascinated by the presence of MPs with no discernible link to the constituencies which elect them. However, this piece notes that amongst those ranks are some of the most impactful, consequential MPs!
www.politico.eu/article/brit...

I’ll keep an eye out for it! I enjoyed reading some of Duverger’s work on party organisation as part of lit review for my undergrad dissertation.

Remarkable approach to diplomacy.

Fascinating data. The Brexit figure is particularly intriguing - would love to explore the leave/remain breakdown amongst those who still identify it as a top 3 issue, as well as how they voted in 2024!

Made this chart yesterday and can't stop thinking about it - how Brits plan to vote according to what they see as the top issues...

Congrats! Would love to read this if it’s available anywhere online 📖

A ‘doom loop’ of climate change and geopolitical instability is beginning Climate change is driving inflation and instability, which harms climate action. But it’s not too late to escape the doom loop.

Really important read.

"Climate change is making geopolitics less stable, which harms climate action. This will worsen climate change, meaning more geopolitical instability, and so on."

theconversation.com/a-doom-loop-...

The Conservative and Reform figures on socialism are... interesting!

YouGov's age breakdown is also worth reviewing

First time in quite a while visualising data like this - any constructive feedback welcome!

Next step is to dive deeper into history for a broader timeframe, include local election results, as well as analysis of the other regions - Connacht-Ulster, Munster, and the Rest of Leinster.

Sinn Féin's growth has been quite consistent both nationally and within Dublin - no major volatility, overperformance or underperformance.

The same exercise for Fine Gael illustrates its volatility in terms of seat share.
2011 is particularly interesting - FG in Dublin underperformed its national FPV but overperformed in terms of seat share.
Since 2020 however, FG performance in Dublin accurately reflects its national performance.

I chose the 1997 GE as a starting point, as this accounts for Bertie Ahern's time as FF leader - their most recent Dublin-based leader. It also facilitates pre-economic crash and post-crash comparisons, with the 'earthquake' election of 2011 showing greater divergence than in previous GEs.

Graph 1 charts the relationship between FF's first preference vote (%) nationally vs in Dublin, whilst graph 2 charts reviews the % share of seats.

On both metrics, FF in Dublin underperform relative to their national performance. This was most apparent in 2016.

Many polls - albeit with the necessary health warnings re: regional crosstabs, as outlined by @kevcunningham.bsky.social - have indicated FF's underperformance in Dublin relative to national figures.

My exercise seeks to assess whether such underperformance is borne out by GE results.

Lots of talk pre #GE24 about Fianna Fáil's relative electoral weakness in Dublin.

I've looked at the numbers and compared the performance of the 3 largest parties' in Dublin to their respective national performances, using both share of the first preference vote and seat share as relevant metrics.

Another one from 2016, prompting the following exchange!