Luke Johnson

JD Vance 2 days ago: "no chance" of a wider Middle Eastern war. Yet, here we are.

publicsphere.news/p/trumps-dan...

publicsphere.news/p/trumps-dan...

Trump's Dangerous War for Regime Change in Iran There is no precedent for triggering a popular uprising by foreign airpower alone

Rushed up my early take on Trump's announcement of military operations against Iran:

There's no precedent for foreign air power triggering a popular uprising that overthrows a dictatorship, yet there was no mention of ground troops.

publicsphere.news/p/trumps-dan...

publicsphere.news/p/how-drones...

I spoke with Ukrainian defense analyst @olenakr.bsky.social about Ukraine's drone innovation, as well Elon Musk's cutting of access to Russia's Starlink, and what's to come in 2026 publicsphere.news/p/how-drones...

LIVE SOON: How drones are reshaping Ukraine‘s frontline — and the future of war Starting Feb 25 at 9:30 AM EST

Talking the latest in Ukrainian drone technology on Substack Live with @olenakr.bsky.social at 3:30 PM CEST/9:30 AM EST. Join in! open.substack.com/live-stream/...

European leaders gather in Kyiv as US hangs back Trump administration sends no senior officials to fourth anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion

no senior U.S. officials in Kyiv marking the four-year anniversary of the full-scale invasion www.ft.com/content/a654...

Звернення Президента у четверті роковини початку повномасштабного вторгнення Росії в Україну YouTube video by Офіс Президента України

Stirring video by Zelenskyy here, showing the bunker for the first time. www.youtube.com/watch?app=de...

How it started, how it's going

My wrap on 4 years since Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine: Trump has taken the U.S. out. publicsphere.news/p/4-years-in...

publicsphere.news/p/4-years-in...

4 Years Into the Ukraine War, the U.S. is Out Trump has no cards to play

My Ukraine anniversary post went live -- it's about how the U.S. turning off funds for Ukraine has set the stage for talks to end the war to fail publicsphere.news/p/4-years-in...

D.C. protesters say they were attacked by guards of Azerbaijani president Azerbaijan’s Ilham Aliyev is in town for a meeting of Trump’s Board of Peace. Police said an incident that “involved Azerbaijan security guards” had been referred to the State Department.

Protesters against the Aliyev autocracy beaten in daylight in downtown DC - thuggish and lawless behavior that is shocking, but not surprising for Azerbaijan www.washingtonpost.com/world/2026/0...

Shock move by Orban which betrays the deal he made in December allowing 24 EU member states (all except 🇭🇺🇨🇿🇸🇰) to make the loan using enhanced cooperation

This was the deal that was supposed to make using frozen Russian assets unnecessary. So that has to be back on the table now, reviving the dispute

Will the U.S. (and Israel) attack Iran? Talking with journalist Jo-Ann Mort about Trump's plans for military action

I spoke with @jo-ann.bsky.social about whether the U.S. and Israel will attack Iran, and what it means for the region -- she has a lot of on-the-ground experience and insights. Check it out -> publicsphere.news/p/will-the-u...

LIVE SOON: Will the U.S. and Israel Attack Iran? Starting Feb 20 at 10:15 AM EST

Talking with @jo-ann.bsky.social at 10:15 EST/4:15CEST about Trump (and Israel) potentially attacking Iran as soon as this weekend open.substack.com/live-stream/...

Relatedly, "Scoop" -- about Newsnight's train wreck interview with Andrew over his Epstein ties -- is one of the best journalism movies.

Russia's GDP is around $2.5 trillion. This is just a fantasy number.

that is FORMER prince Andrew.

Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor arrested on suspicion of misconduct in public office It comes after Thames Valley Police said they were assessing a complaint over the alleged sharing of confidential material by the former prince with Jeffrey Epstein.

Whoa. Prince Andrew arrested www.bbc.com/news/live/c7...

Exclusive: Germany seeks more F-35 jets as European fighter program falters, sources say Germany is considering ordering more U.S.-made F-35 fighter jets, two sources told Reuters, a move that would deepen Berlin's reliance on American military technology as its joint next-generation figh...

Germany in talks to buy more F-35s, which aren't fully independent from the U.S. -- proof that more money doesn't necessarily mean more strategic autonomy. www.reuters.com/business/aer...

Feels really close, and I don't think Iran will back down. Most of Trump's voters didn't vote for him for this, but he thinks that they will follow him, as they've done many times before, like with tariffs.

Looks like Kremlin negotiator and nationalist historian Vladimir Medinsky's lectures went over great.

Left in the dark The impact on the Russian army of losing access to Starlink and Telegram

My latest post looks at how Russian forces came to lose access to Starlink and Telegram, why they lacked reliable satellite communications of their own, and the operational impact, including on the current counter-offensive. (£/free trial), open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/l...?

To De-Risk From Trump, Europe Could Form a Costco For Defense Europe is spending more on defense, but still is as reliant on the Americans as before

From #MSC2026, how Europe could join forces and actually defend itself -- spending money is not enough publicsphere.news/p/to-de-risk...

Europe is chasing the wrong fix for its growth crisis The continent’s old growth model no longer works in today’s world. And EU leaders need a plan that matches the scale of this shift.

EU Leaders meet tomorrow to discuss measures to lift Europe's anaemic growth rate. But the summit risks turning into a nothing burger.

EU Leaders have cherry-picked a macroeconomically meaningless simplification agenda from the Draghi report

New oped.

1/

www.politico.eu/article/euro...

Inside a Detention Site at the Heart of Europe’s Harsh New Approach to Immigration

With lots of attention on the increasingly brutal US deportation regime, it's important to remember the EU is employing similar tactics (and consulting with the US on how best to do it). Great reporting by Caitlin L. Chandler here:

Watch this ->

A fun discussion. Do watch ->