Antoine

Bonn 2025 climate talks: Brazil’s first diplomatic test ahead of COP30 What should happen at the Bonn climate negotiations (15-26 June)  to ensure COP30 becomes a major inflection point in the UN climate process? As Brazil is preparing to host COP30 in Belém (10-21 Novem...

Just co-wrote a blog on what’s at stake in the Bonn 2025 climate talks 🌍

We dig into:
– Trust-building in multilateral climate talks
– What to watch on GGA, JTWP & GST
– How Brazil could shape a new phase of the Paris Agreement

Read here at @iddri.bsky.social ➡️ www.iddri.org/en/publicati...

New (open access!) paper out now with Eric Helleiner and Hongying Wang in New Political Economy:

"A less reluctant (green) Atlas? Explaining the People’s Bank of China’s distinctive environmental shift"

1/ A brief thread 🧵

doi.org/10.1080/1356...

Global emergence of unprecedented lifetime exposure to climate extremes - Nature Climate models, impact models and demographic data are used to estimate the number of people projected to experience unprecedented lifetime exposure to extreme climate events across multiple dimension...

From @nature.com: New research shows that with every increment of global warming, the number of people facing unprecedented lifetime exposure to crop failures, droughts, floods, wildfires, and cyclones increases sharply. www.nature.com/articles/s41...

+7° en moyenne ce 2 Mai 2025 sur la France p/r au climat de référence [1971-2000], climax d'une séquence annuelle sans équivoque (Cf👇).
L'été de mon enfance est le printemps de ma vie d'adulte. Ça va vite, trop vite pour le non-humain qui ne pourra pas s'adapter & nous avec.
Quelle irresponsabilité!

Climate change governance by central banks in an era of interlocking crises In this article, we survey the literature on central bank action on climate change, focusing particularly on how the combined crises of COVID-19, inflation, and Ukraine have affected this action. W...

New open-access article with a great team of scholars, expertly led by @matpaterson.bsky.social and @jacquelinebest.bsky.social, on central bank action on climate change.
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
@campolis.bsky.social

📚✨ New paper alert: How are we doing on turning nature into a source of calculable risk?

We take a critical look at how 1990s risk models and environmental science enable riskification, and study very new regulatory strategies that go beyond it.

#openaccess:
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

Je me permets de renvoyer vers ce fil, si ça peut être utile ! bsky.app/profile/abak...

Je me permets de renvoyer vers ce fil, si ça peut être utile ! bsky.app/profile/abak...

Je me permets de renvoyer vers ce fil, si ça peut être utile ! bsky.app/profile/abak...

Je me permets de renvoyer vers ce poste, si ça peut être utile !
bsky.app/profile/abak...

Je me permets de vous renvoyer vers ce post, si ça peut être utile ! bsky.app/profile/abak...

Je me permets de renvoyer vers ce post, si ça peut être utile ! Le PNACC n'implique pas d'abandonner l'Accord de Paris bsky.app/profile/abak...

Cela étant dit, la réduction des GES doit rester l'objectif principal - chaque dixième de degré compte -, et l'adaptation ne peut être qu'un complément aux efforts d'atténuation: on s'adapte mieux à un monde à +2 que +4...

Donc, sans me prononcer sur son fond, le PNACC n'implique pas que la France renonce à l'accord de Paris en commençant à se préparer à un scénario catastrophe RCP7.5 (+4° mondial), mais que l'on se prépare à un scénario probable selon les tendances actuelles

Et ce serait sans doute assez malhonnête de construire un PNACC sur la base d'un scénario +1,5° qui sous-estime les impacts à venir du changement climatique - à l'inverse, le plan permet de montrer l'ampleur des efforts à accomplir si l'on ne parvient pas à réduire la trajectoire de réchauffement

J'ai l'impression qu'il y a une petite confusion sur bsky quant à ce scénario +4°C en France: il s'agit bien de la déclinaison nationale du scénario SSP2-RCP4.5 du GIEC (soit +2,7 d'ici 2100 au niveau mondial), càd un scénario où l'on poursuit nos politiques actuelles au niveau mondial.

And type 1 is already reacting. Merz' declarations of course (although maybe at the frontier of type 1/2), but also D de Villepin topping French opinion polls for the first time in twenty years - IR framing national discourse again, for better or worse

Overheard at an OECD social event: "the class system is a market failure"

The failure of euro internationalizing is baffling. We show that the euro is used in just 31% of FX transactions—barely more than the D-mark before the euro launched. Even European firms often prefer to trade in dollars.

Opinion | That Giant Sucking Sound? It’s Climate Change Devouring Your Home’s Value. A new analysis predicts an extraordinary reversal in housing fortunes for Americans.

You can ignore climate change. The political system can ignore climate change. But the insurance industry cannot ignore climate change.

interesting new law review article about the Fed's climate scenario analysis and stress testing from David Wishnick at Georgetown Law

"Horizons of Risk: Climate Stress and the Federal Reserve"

chicagounbound.uchicago.edu/cgi/viewcont...

There we go. Executive order coming.

Trump administration will conduct a 6-month review of US participation in global institutions, including the IMF and World Bank - to see if they are „contrary to the interests of the US" or "can be reformed".

Project 2025 called for the US to pull out.

1/2

NGFS publishes latest long-term climate macro-financial scenarios for climate risks assessment | Network for Greening the Financial System

As a disclaimer, we used phase IV of NGFS Scenarios for this article.
The macroecon results under the updated assumptions of phase V (now based on Kotz et al's damage function) would increase even further the cost differential between current policies and NZ 2050. www.ngfs.net/en/press-rel...
9/9

For more details and information:
👉 Read the article and the full publication here: mnb.hu/letoltes/mnb...
👉 Read more about the NGFS Scenarios: www.ngfs.net/ngfs-scenari...
(8/9)

➡️ Political headwinds are increasing, but the economic rationale for the transition is stronger than ever - in Europe, Asia, and across the globe.
NGFS Scenarios show that a #netzero future is within reach (for now..), but will require strong action from govs worldwide.
7/9

...countries pursuing ambitious climate policies often benefit from increased public investment and strengthened GDP.

In contrast, inaction leads to escalating physical risks and long-term economic losses.
6/9

💡 The #transition makes (macro)economic sense
Building on the previous findings, the NGFS Scenarios then allowed us to estimate potential macroeconomic impacts of the transition in Europe and Asia.

While all scenarios show GDP losses due to climate change, we find that...
5/9

to reach net zero by 2050.

For Asia, coal would drop from 50% of the energy mix in 2020 to <1% by 2050.
Solar and wind would replace high-emission sources and grow to respectively 39% and 15% of the energy mix.

4/9

⚡Transforming the #energy mix
With the majority of emissions induced by energy consumption, any transition scenario requires significant changes in the energy sector.
Using the shadow carbon prices, the models help us identify feasible and optimised primary energy mixes that allow economies... 3/9