Doug Analytics

I loved this idea. And so (with Bryan's blessing)...

darnold-meter.com

You should definitely cut Sexy Dexy for the $20M in post-June 1st savings.

Chiefs can pick him up. Somehow.

I’ll trade him for 3 firsts and Patrick Mahomes

This is awesome! Could you do the Giants?

-- 2025 NFL 🏈 Playoff Geo-Rooting Map --

Geo-Rooting is the concept of rooting for the geographically closest team to the current location.

This map shows closest team (stadium location) by county in contiguous U.S.

Enjoy the playoffs!

Number of games per season with 0 TDs and 5 TDs
(2000–2025)

Congrats to the Jets on 10 straight seasons with at least 2 games without a TD.

Sorry to the Saints for ending a 19-year streak of scoring 5+ TDs in at least one game per season.

With the Giants win over the Cowboys, they will now pick between #3-#6 depending on the outcomes of the Cardinals, Jets, and Commanders games.

• All 3 of ARI, NYJ, WAS win: #3 pick
• 2 of those win: #4 pick
• 1 of those win: #5 pick
• All 3 lose: #6 pick

Thanks! I post most of my work on Twitter. Unfortunately that’s where most of my following is, so it just makes sense to stay predominantly over there

NYJ 1st Round Draft Pick Scenarios

Shoutout Canva

2nd and only with all 3 of…

1) LV winning
2) NYG losing

3) any 2 of:
SEA beat SF
CLE beat CIN
ATL beat NO
CHI beat DET

NYG 1st Round Draft Pick Scenarios

With the Falcons’ win, the Jets are eliminated from the #1 pick.

The #1 pick will belong to either the Raiders or Giants.

The Jets need all of the following to clinch the #1 pick:

LAR beat ATL (tonight)

BUF beat NYJ
NYG beat DAL
LV beat KC

CLE beat CIN
LAC beat DEN
CHI beat DET
NE beat MIA
TEN beat JAX

If the Giants lose, they’re guaranteed to pick no later than 2nd.

If the Giants win, each loss by NYJ/TEN/ARI/CLE/WAS drops NYG by one spot from #2.

NYG Draft Pick Scenarios

#1: NYG lose, LV win, 2+ of SEA/CLE/ATL/CHI win
#2: NYG lose, LV lose

Other 3/4 win teams: NYJ, TEN, ARI, CLE, WAS

If NYG win:
#2: all 5 of those teams also win
#3: 4 win
#4: 3 win
#5: 2 win
#6: 1 wins
#7: all lose

QB EPA/Play Rankings

1) Brock Purdy: +0.33
2) Drake Maye: +0.31
3) Jordan Love: +0.28

40) Shedeur Sanders: -0.18

Believe it and it will happen

How often do defenses disguise who’s rushing the QB and who’s dropping into coverage?

Number of Runs Between Play-Action

Giants:
• Weeks 1-10 (Daboll): 2.6 runs (13th)
• Weeks 11-16 (Kafka): 3.8 runs (30th)

Data: @ftnfantasy.com

Week 17 Tank Rooting Guide

How to read: find your team's column and root for each logo to win

Example: a Browns win would be 0.5 picks better for the Giants’ tank than a Browns loss.

Week 17 Draft Implications

How a win or loss impacts each team’s average draft pick

A few SOS notes:

• The Giants are guaranteed to have the SOS tiebreaker over the Titans AND Cardinals
• The Browns are guaranteed to have the SOS tiebreaker over the Giants

A Giants loss next week locks their worst possible pick at #4

The Giants clinch the #1 pick in Week 17 if all three occur:

1) NYG lose to LV (2025 Mega Tank Bowl)
2) CLE beats PIT

3a) NYJ beats NE
OR
3b) At least 7 points of the following:
BUF win (4 points)
BAL win (2 points)
DAL w (all remaining w = 1 point)
DEN w
HOU w
JAX w
MIA w
CAR w
CIN w
ATL w

The “loser” of the Giants-Raiders game gets the 1st pick ~68% of the time

Updated Draft Pick Probabilities before MNF

A few Draft SOS notes:

• The Giants are guaranteed to have the SOS tiebreaker over the Titans AND Cardinals
• The Browns are guaranteed to have the SOS tiebreaker over the Giants

A Giants loss next week locks their worst possible pick at #4

Looking specifically at the MIN-NYG game for the Giants tank…

NYG loss:
• NYG get #1 pick: 29.0%
• NYG get top 5 pick: 92.3%
• avg NYG pick: 2.9

NYG win:
• NYG get #1 pick: 5.8%
• NYG get top 5 pick: 58.2%
• avg NYG pick: 5.0

Week 16 Tank Rooting Guide

Based on 40,000 rest-of-season simulations per Week 16 game, fixing each possible outcome.

There is a small path where the Giants lose out and lose the SOS tiebreaker to a 2–15 Titans team.

Giants can guarantee the #1 pick if they lose out with these results this week:
• 1 win from LAC/JAX/HOU/IND + 1 other win from LAC/JAX/HOU/IND/CLE/ARI/PIT
OR
• Wins from CLE, ARI, and PIT