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Toby Phillips

@tobyphillips.bsky.social

Economic Director at the Centre for Policy Development in Australia. Spends a lot of time in the mountains.

349 Followers  |  265 Following  |  123 Posts  |  Joined: 02.09.2024  |  2.3603

Latest posts by tobyphillips.bsky.social on Bluesky

That’s true, but I think it’s also true that different generations have been exposed to a different “social deal” over time, which means the net distribution of lifetime socialised benefits/burdens is unequal (favouring older generations in aggregate)

22.05.2025 03:23 — 👍 1    🔁 0    💬 1    📌 0

However you look at it… it’s a constitutional crisis for the LNP!

20.05.2025 06:39 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0

LNP is also technically an affiliate of the Nationals party, and presumably Nat-affiliated MPs (like Littleproud himself) will continue to sit in the Nat party room

20.05.2025 06:38 — 👍 1    🔁 0    💬 1    📌 0

Oh to be clear I am 99% convinced the weird South Africa stuff came from Musk trying to tamper with Grok’s responses.

I’m just not sure if Grok can accurately relay what the specific instruction was, or the reasons why the instruction caused it to reply to *every* tweet that way

15.05.2025 14:07 — 👍 2    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0

I think it is genuinely a response that Grok gave... but my understanding is that Grok integrates a lot of twitter content into its responses, so these could be either (a) a true indication of its instructions, or (b) a synthesis of speculation from all the twitter chatter

15.05.2025 05:44 — 👍 7    🔁 0    💬 1    📌 0

Thanks Scott... this is the first place I have seen the full list!

12.05.2025 04:58 — 👍 3    🔁 0    💬 1    📌 0

Awesome. I think I’ll refresh this regularly for the rest of the week!

One bit of feedback is that it would be helpful to bold (or otherwise highlight) seat names. It would be easier to skim once the post gets really long

07.05.2025 06:56 — 👍 1    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0

Yes, I’ve been wondering lately if you can apply this to transmission lines and grid-scale generation/storage.

As Matt says, for major cross-city rail, we mostly don’t let individual land-holders or councils block the work.

ping @tomecon.bsky.social

06.05.2025 00:42 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
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All up: this is a period of structural transition. We know there will be disruption, but if its managed well, it can generate massive shared prosperity 4/4

30.01.2025 05:36 — 👍 2    🔁 1    💬 0    📌 0
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The global emergence of new green industries is a process that is going to take 2 decades to play out. Policies like the hydrogen production tax incentive provide short-term support to get the first electrolysers built in Australia 3/4

30.01.2025 05:36 — 👍 1    🔁 1    💬 1    📌 0
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Australia is in a really strong position to develop energy-intensive green industries like ammonia or green metals over the long-term. But in the short term, the global emergence of these industries is happening in a lumpy and unpredictable fashion – policymakers need to set the direction 2/4

30.01.2025 05:36 — 👍 1    🔁 1    💬 1    📌 0
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Last week I spoke to the Senate Economics Committee about legislation to establish tax credits for hydrogen production and critical minerals production.

This is really important economic policy, particularly for hydrogen, so I'll share some clips below 1/4

#auspol

30.01.2025 05:36 — 👍 2    🔁 1    💬 1    📌 0

this is the best take I’ve seen today

29.01.2025 10:03 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0

jeez, that's scary stuff. I stayed at Dimboola just 10 days ago; left my car charging over night at Old Weir Lane just over the river

28.01.2025 10:58 — 👍 1    🔁 0    💬 1    📌 0

I don't know if that is sufficient for most people either – but I reckon there will be at least 72 car-free families in Coburg for whom it is sufficient (and attractive).

And ultimately, if a developer wants to take that bet, why should the council stop them?

28.01.2025 10:44 — 👍 1    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0

madness – minimum car parking requirements are complete overreach of planning process.

If people want parking, they will buy apartments with parking. If they don't want parking, let them build apartments without.

28.01.2025 00:51 — 👍 3    🔁 0    💬 1    📌 0

Rather than taking carbon emissions, many countries are, on the contrary, still subsidizing them. #BadIncentives #WastefulSpending

27.01.2025 23:55 — 👍 15    🔁 3    💬 0    📌 0
Centre for Policy Development economic director Toby Phillips said the early stage of offshore wind in Australia meant that chopping and changing of plans by investors was to be expected.

“The offshore wind sector is still new in Australia, so it’s natural to see firms weighing up their choices and, in some cases, choosing not to pursue an opportunity,” Mr Phillips said.

“We need to make sure that more of the most cost-effective new electricity – solar and wind – can be added to the grid. Where regulatory complexity or lack of infrastructure is preventing this, governments need to get involved.”

Centre for Policy Development economic director Toby Phillips said the early stage of offshore wind in Australia meant that chopping and changing of plans by investors was to be expected. “The offshore wind sector is still new in Australia, so it’s natural to see firms weighing up their choices and, in some cases, choosing not to pursue an opportunity,” Mr Phillips said. “We need to make sure that more of the most cost-effective new electricity – solar and wind – can be added to the grid. Where regulatory complexity or lack of infrastructure is preventing this, governments need to get involved.”

I was quoted in the Australian Financial Review today on the offshore wind sector...

In the last budget, the govt allocated $235 million to improve approvals processes and reduce complexity for major projects. These might sound dull, but it is critical!

www.afr.com/policy/energ...

28.01.2025 00:12 — 👍 3    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0

to be fair, i am ~50% faster at writing (pretty basic) r code with chatgpt

24.01.2025 04:57 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0

Amateur headline writing! Should be "24,000 Victorian renters become homeowners as government policy reduces speculation"

24.01.2025 04:40 — 👍 3    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0

couldn't you say the same thing about any industrial venture? why should govt run the world's largest ammonia maker?

I am a big fan of this venture, and hope the govt co-invest to capture some of the upside; but I'm also happy with using global capital to funding new Aus industry

24.01.2025 04:19 — 👍 1    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
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Trump's IRA retreat an 'opportunity' for Australia A President Trump order halting funding from America’s $557 billion climate and industry program will be limited to climate change mitigation and electric vehicles programs, the Whitehouse clarified o...

I was quoted in this article about Trump's green industry aproach:

"This will rattle investor confidence in the US. It is a perfect time to demonstrate that Australia is the best place in the world to build industries like green hydrogen and green aluminium."
www.innovationaus.com/trumps-ira-r...

24.01.2025 00:49 — 👍 4    🔁 1    💬 0    📌 0

really interesting discussion of the "everything bagel" problem policy development: trying to achieve everything with a single policy

the flip side is the Tinbergen rule: a single policy instrument can only optimise for a single goal

24.01.2025 00:37 — 👍 2    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0

this is really well put – something I have been grappling with around how far to extend conditionality on green industry support (eg. govt subsidies come with strings attached re: creating local jobs)

24.01.2025 00:30 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0

Being a person with deadly, incurable cancer who is nonetheless still alive for an indefinite timeframe gives me an interesting metaphor that helps me deal with things like large-scale corruption in government or commerce.

Bear with me for a second while I try to explain.

21.01.2025 02:26 — 👍 14443    🔁 4549    💬 505    📌 1305

yep, I remember mostly shutting off from social media during the first Trump presidency; it was too much

22.01.2025 03:18 — 👍 1    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0

so many things wrong with this, but perhaps the most basic: you can't say, at the point of conception, what reproductive cells an embryo will eventually produce.

You can only say what chromosomes it has.

(XY mosaicism and XX male syndrome will bedevil any attempts otherwise!)

21.01.2025 06:08 — 👍 4    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
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Labor commits to 'green aluminium' - ABC listen Labor is offering billions of dollars in tax credits to help transition the aluminium sector to renewable energy.

I was on ABC radio's PM program yesterday talking about the government's $2bn commitment to green aluminium.

What a great opportunity! Australia has great renewable energy potential and is the world's largest producer of bauxite, but we export 90% of it.

www.abc.net.au/listen/progr...

21.01.2025 03:40 — 👍 2    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0

that’s awesome, I never thought of non-prime numbers as rectangles before!

21.01.2025 01:15 — 👍 2    🔁 0    💬 1    📌 0

it's only inflation if it comes from the Powell region of Washington DC, otherwise its just sparkling price levels

17.01.2025 07:03 — 👍 7    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0

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