Jon Baron

New: Our No-Spin report on 10y results of an RCT of Per Scholas – an employment/training program for low-income adults, focused on IT jobs. In brief: High-quality RCT finds sizable earnings gains over years 2-8 & cumulative earnings gains of 16% over 10y. 🧵

See No-Spin report on an RCT of P-TECH 9-14 College & Career Prep Schools. In brief: Despite positive portrayal of results in the study's overview, it found no discernible impact on high school grad'n or college progression over 7y, but future earnings impacts are possible.🧵

See our new No-Spin report on a major RCT of federally-funded home visiting programs for at-risk families with young children. In brief: Despite the positive portrayal of results in the study's overview, it found negligible impacts on child & family outcomes at the 5-7yr mark.🧵

We're pleased to share that MD Gov. Wes Moore and @arnoldventures.bsky.social have announced an additional $20M to scale proven-effective social programs, under the Maryland Partnership for Proven Programs. The Coalition for Evidence-Based Policy helped launch and is facilitating the initiative.🧵

See our No-Spin report on an RCT of the Nurse-Family Partnership home visiting program for low-income, first-time mothers, conducted in South Carolina. In brief: Large, high-quality RCT finds no impact on likelihood of child injury, abuse, or neglect in first 2y of life.🧵

See our No-Spin report on a national RCT of Big Brothers Big Sisters (BBBS) Community-Based Mentoring for at-risk youth. In brief: Study finds highly promising, but not definitive, evidence of sizable reductions (20-40%) in delinquency & substance use at the 4-year follow-up.🧵

See our No-Spin report on an RCT of the Nurse-Family Partnership home visiting program for low-income, first-time mothers in British Columbia. In brief: High-quality RCT finds no impact on child injuries (primary outcome) over 2y, but suggestive effects on 2 secondary outcomes.🧵

See our No-Spin report on the Baby’s First Years RCT, studying the effects of providing unconditional cash transfers to low-income, new mothers in the US. In brief: This high-quality RCT found no impact on any of the study’s primary child development outcomes at 4y follow-up.🧵

See our new No-Spin report on Zearn, a popular software platform, to support grade 3-5 math education. In brief: High-quality RCT finds suggestive (not statistically significant) modest effects on state test scores in math after two years of program implementation.🧵

See our No-Spin report on a widely-covered NBER study of Medicaid expansion. In brief: Despite the abstract's claims that expansion reduced adult mortality 2.5%, the study found much smaller effects that fell short of statistical significance in its main preregistered analysis.🧵

See our No-Spin report on long-term RCT results for ASAP Ohio, providing academic, personal & financial supports to low-income community college students. In brief: High-quality RCT finds a remarkable 15% point gain in degree completion & 14% gain in annual earnings at 8y mark.🧵

See our No-Spin report on RCTs of two pilot initiatives offering Pell Grants (federal financial aid) to low-income adults for short-term job training programs. In brief: High-quality RCTs find no discernible impact on employment or earnings 3-5 yrs after program completion. 🧵1/2

These are the indicative estimates of Russia’s combat losses as of April 12, according to the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

See our No-Spin report on an RCT of Multiple Measures Assessment (MMA) - an approach widely used by community colleges to increase student success. In brief: Large, high quality RCT in MN & WI finds no discernible impact on credits earned or graduation rate at 4.5-year mark.

Great to see Oklahoma adopt this important new model of gov't-philanthropy collaboration in using evidence about "what works" to improve lives of children & youth. The Coalition is excited to be facilitating this partnership between Arnold Ventures and Gov. Stitt! rb.gy/7wvppr

Terrific to see this announcement by CO Gov Jared Polis and
@arnoldventures.bsky.social of the new Colorado Partnership for Proven Initiatives! Our organization - Coalition for Evidence-Based Policy - is excited and proud to be supporting this initiative. www.evidencebasedpolicy.org/latest-progr...

See our new No-Spin report on an RCT of HUD's $140M/yr Family Self-Sufficiency program to promote work for housing voucher recipients. Large, high quality RCT finds no impact on employment or earnings over 6 year follow-up: nospin.evidencebasedpolicy.org/articles/hud...

From the standpoint of government efficiency, the recent cancellation of large federal RCTs in education & other areas is counterproductive. These trials are unique in providing highly-credible evidence about what works & what doesn't in government spending (a🧵with concrete examples). 1/3

Today, the Coalition for Evidence-Based Policy issued the following statement on the recent cancellation of numerous federally-funded program evaluations (screenshot below, also reproduced as a thread). 1/7

See our No-Spin report on an RCT of Sourdun Boarding School for disadvantaged middle & high school students in France. High quality RCT finds large, long-term impacts - half the rate of high school dropout & 16% point increase in Higher Ed graduation: nospin.evidencebasedpolicy.org/articles/sou...

Terrific & compelling remarks by Australian MP Hon. Andrew Leigh at OECD, outlining why randomized trials are the latest major reform in the history of public administration, and articulating the ultimate goal of evaluation: Finding interventions that work! ministers.treasury.gov.au/ministers/an...

See our new No-Spin report on an RCT of Communities that Heal - a community engaged, data driven program to reduce opioid overdose deaths. Large, high quality RCT finds no discernible impact on such deaths over 1 year follow-up: nospin.evidencebasedpolicy.org/articles/com...

Note that the study received uncritical coverage in NY Times & elsewhere - coverage that largely repeats the study abstract's inaccurate claims: www.nytimes.com/2023/12/04/u...

See our No-Spin report on the evaluation of a California program to train K-3 teachers in the science of reading. Despite the study abstract's claimed positive effects, the study found no impact on reading/English achievement in its primary analysis: nospin.evidencebasedpolicy.org/articles/cal...

Recently released (Jan 2025): 4 new reports of No-Spin Evidence Review – our online publication that summarizes recent program evaluations and explains what the evidence really shows. See nospin.evidencebasedpolicy.org

See our No-Spin report on the Sit-D Police Training RCT published in QJE: Though the study claims effects on police performance, it doesn’t report results for most of its preregistered primary outcomes, preventing reliable conclusions re program impact. nospin.evidencebasedpolicy.org/articles/sit...

See our new No-Spin report on the RCT of ASSISTments - a low-cost online tool to support 7th grade math learning: High-quality RCT finds sizable gain (~31% of a grade-level) in math scores on the state test at 2 year follow-up. nospin.evidencebasedpolicy.org/articles/ass...

See our No-Spin report on the NC Early College RCT (giving students opportunity to earn college credit in high school): Despite claimed large effects in study’s abstract, its main finding was a modest 2.4 % pt gain in bachelor’s completion at 10y mark. nospin.evidencebasedpolicy.org/articles/ear...

See our new No-Spin report on the RCT of Roca (a program for justice-involved young men to prevent recidivism): High-quality RCT finds no discernible effects on reincarceration or employment over 5y; can rule out sizable but not modest positive effects. nospin.evidencebasedpolicy.org/articles/roc...