Dustin Benton

I know we are all distracted by geopolitics (me too) but what were tail risks from climate distruption, like hothouse earth, are becoming more likely, and fast.

The other issue is that of the total volume generation built, cheaper onshore wind and solar make up only ~20% of expected output.

The offshore wind that makes up 80% of the auction's likely ouput will cut gas imports, but it won't cut bills.

AR7 costs are £72/MWh for onshore wind; £65/MWh for solar (all in 2024 prices).

Much cheaper than wholesale prices (~£80/MWh) or new gas power (£109/MWh) but compared to Spanish solar (€46/MWh) UK renewables aren't astonishingly cheap any more.

How much will it cost the UK to reach an 87% cut in greenhouse gas emissions by 2040?

In a new letter, @thecccuk.bsky.social confirms about £4bn a year (£26bn a year of costs minus £22bn a year of savings).

www.theccc.org.uk/wp-content/u...

87% by 2040 is a stepping stone to net zero by 2050

"The point is that it's a lot easier for families to fill up tummies with really convenient, energy-dense food."

"We need supermarkets to be doing much more to make it easier for families to make those healthy choices."

- our Executive Director Anna Taylor on BBC Breakfast this morning.

Yes. One of my favourite energy efficiency stats is that 25% of UK economic growth between 1971-2013 was due to energy efficiency: ukerc.ac.uk/news/energy-... @jrbarrett.bsky.social

30/31 still could technically count, right?

Also, to add to the random morning reflections here, I wonder how long it takes for someone to suggest (wrongly) that Hinkley C's £89.50/MWh is cheaper than the £91/MWh for offshore wind, forgetting that the former is 2012 prices!

I note that those offshore wind farms with the most expensive offshore seabed licenses didn't make it through - those licenses now look far too expensive...

PDF with details here assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/696686...

Also, for nerds, the number for comparison to previous rounds is £65/MWh as that's in 2012 £.

It's a lot more than the (now unreasonably cheap) £38/MWh from AR4, but closer to the £59/MWh in AR6 (which also bought Hornsea 4 that was subsequently cancelled for being unprofitable).

8.4GW of offshore wind is bang on what industry thinks is needed to meet the Clean Power 2030 goal.

At £91/MWh, it's cheaper than the fossil alternatives, but inflation sucks.

Expect lots of froth about how expensive this is, ignoring the fact that everything is now expensive...

If true this is good news for Ed Miliband

ICYMI, the future is being made in California again: pv-magazine-usa.com/2026/01/02/c...

Lovely survey work by @chathamhouse.org on public attitudes to Chinese EVs. Something to keep in mind ahead of next week's EU EV announcements.

www.chathamhouse.org/sites/defaul...

Whisky byproducts being turned into fish-free omega 3 www.bbc.co.uk/news/article... < I did some work on circular economy opportunities in Scotland a LONG time ago and it's brilliant to see this finally coming off!

German cabinet approves draft biofuels law, food-based ingredient use to continue Germany's cabinet approved a draft biofuels law on Wednesday, which will allow continued use of food and animal feed as biofuel ingredients, the environment ministry said in a statement.

Schade www.reuters.com/sustainabili...

While declining aerosols is responsible for part of this observed change, it may also be driven by internal climate variability or a feedback to climate warming. The latter is worrying, as it would imply higher climate sensitivity than currently expected.

*for fossil generation only, my mistake - it's a worst case scenario. It's designed to get you to measure and report on actual emissions as determined by a PPA or whatever, but I suspect in practice a lot of electricity is counted as the default because of the paperwork. Roll on ETS linkage!

Trailing five year average carbon intensity, ending 2 years before the reporting year. So I think for the UK the calculation is based on 2017-2021 data.

2017 was a different era: 7% coal, maybe 42% gas...

I see the EU's vast CBAM carbon intensity default values spreadsheet is out. A shame that it classifies UK power sector carbon intensity as 430gCO2/kWh.

In 2025, UK power has actually had a carbon intensity of around 130gCO2/kWh - over 3x lower!

Yes - SSP2/3. Feels to me like climate wonks are not thinking through how to do the politics of climate mitigation/resilience in an SSP3 world - because it's not the world we want. But if we have to live there, better to work out how do do so well.

'Skipping that hamburger saved paradise' is a harder story, unfortunately...

The food industry must face up to nature-related risk Boardrooms need to acknowledge that without healthy soils and reliable seasons the system could face collapse

New CEO of Diageo writes:

"Environmental shocks, from flooding to soil degradation to heat stress, pose direct threats to commercial viability

Recent evidence found that the share prices of companies most exposed to biodiversity risk underperformed those less exposed"

www.ft.com/content/5094...

OBR reckons pay per mile for EVs "is likely to reduce demand for electric cars as it increases their lifetime cost". Expecting 440k fewer sales through to 2030 compared to previous forecast, offset by a 130k increase in sales from more funding for the government's grant scheme'.

Assuming your gas boiler is 90% efficient, your heat pump needs to have a SCOP of 3.6 to break even.

This is certainly achievable - my heat pump is comfortably above this. But I had a really good installer.

This will reduce the price of electricity, good for bills and will make the transition easier. But because of other levies (nuclear, correcting two decades of underinvestment in the grid), electricity will still be around 4x the cost of gas.

This is a big deal. The reduction in sulphur emissions from ships means clouds aren’t as reflective and persistent, so the warming from greenhouse gases is not offset as much. So, while this change is very good for air quality, it’s very bad for almost everything else. #climate

The case for delaying the application of the EU’s carbon border levy to electricity The inclusion of electricity in CBAM creates more problems than it solves; ways should be found to exempt it

Brughel calling for a delay to CBAM on electricity as it risks pushing prices power prices up for a couple of years with v little climate benefit.

Better to have accelerated ETS/elec market linking but we're 6 weeks away from CBAM's application...

www.bruegel.org/analysis/cas...

Time series of annual GISTEMP data from 1880 onwards with an estimate for 2025 based on Jan-Oct data showing that it will be cooler than 2024, but probably a little warmer than 2023.

Now that the Sept and Oct data are (belatedly) in, it looks like 2025 will be the second warmest year in the record (~80% probability). The last three years are in a class of their own.