lmfao i hadn't realized until now that OpenAI has altogether promised 1.5 trillion in compute spending

that's Trillion with a T

brother i don't think the pornbot subscriptions are gonna get you there

Let's go

Cowards die many times before their deaths,
The valiant never taste of death but once.

Words of wisdom from a longtime friend of mine.

4) So in the end I do believe leadership of both Houses were in on this somewhat.

For me personally it doesn’t change that much. The institutionalist squishies had to go, regardless of outcome.

For overall Dem strategy…I don’t know. I still think they should’ve dragged it beyond Thanksgiving.

3) however this time, the criticism seems a lot more directed at the deal itself instead of Senate Dems themselves. It all feels very kabuki. I suspect there was coordination between House and Sen Dems this time. If not there would be a lot more *directed* ire at the squishies.

2) I think it’s pretty clear March was a huge bungle by Dems. They didn’t expect Johnson to be able to whip votes and so their plan went out the window and Schumer had to call an audible. This initiated House leadership who put their necks out for nothing. The criticism was sharp and directed.

1) Now that I’ve had time to calm down and mull things over I’ve kinda changed my mind on this.

I do think there was a marked difference in how House Dems reacted last night vs how they did in March. March felt a lot personal, specifically calling out Sen Dems.

But this time it’s much less so.

And if we want anything really big, we need a comfortable majority that allows for defections

The 89th Congress (1964 election) started with 68 Senators and 295 House reps on the blue team. LBJ swinging his dick around helped, sure, but holy shit those numbers though.

My honest take is that Ds played a bad hand poorly and the TL is split between people pretending a Pikachu, an expired debt card, and a five dollar coupon for Taco Bell was aces over kings and people pretending shitting on the table and yelling YAHTZEE is 69 dimensional chess.

it is important to remember that this man also lost several million dollars gambling and became an advisor to Polymarket last year

I am fairly certain they will give it an up or down vote in the Senate. Less certain of the outcome. Very doubtful the House will give them a vote.

Gonna poke fun at Bsky a bit. I love ya’ll, but we’re essentially all hardcore partisans and despite that some of us can’t stop yelling and cussing each other out and muting/blocking each other.

Then we all act like coalition wrangling is easy. Nope! Quite difficult!

I still think it's absurd that they give up now, when I think a much more understandable play would be holding the line and letting the GOP ruin thanksgiving and then doing something to avert ruining Christmas

After a good night’s sleep this is where I’m at.

I think they should’ve seriously touched the stove for Thanksgiving.

I totally get the various reasons why they didn’t but man, it’s a trade-off I would’ve taken.

i think "Trump learns he can get things out of the legislature by threatening to starve Americans" is a giant political boon for Democrats honestly. like how do we think he is going to employ that lesson in future that does not have dire electoral consequences?

To repeat: Maybe electing a life-long criminal to an office where he can pardon other criminals wasn't such a good idea.

This is another example of the Everything's-About-ME mindset. They can't imagine that people might be doing something strictly for their own personal enjoyment. It must, somehow, be about them because in their minds everything is about them.

Jarvis @jarvis_best -14h What's the mood on Bluesky? 236 t797 2.6K Ill 402K On the Edge Nate Silver Nate Silver v @NateSilver538 X.com They're too busy burning American Eagle jeans at socially distanced bonfires to have noticed that the shutdown ended. 6:43 PM • 11/9/25 • 402K Views

the hipsters, they’re ordering double frufru mocha soy frappuccino. doesn’t anybody order a black coffee anymore

Wait I’m genuinely curious how different Twitter’s reaction is? Even the reactionary centrists have all expressed confusion and anger the Dems have caved?

We know this because he told us.

The reality is the government was shut down the first day Trump entered office. We just didn't talk about it that way.

The only real leverage Dems had is on appropriations. Schumer screwed that up in February/March for FY 26. It imperiled his political support.

14?) People in the bad place think this was about preserving the filibuster. IDK. It's hard to see Rs (or Ds) getting rid of the filibuster b/c it gives to much power to individual members. It also changes the incentives for how the R conference works--mods can't blame filib for voting their prefs.

13) I think Dem leadership still suffers from frame drag. They think it's the 90s. Trump is dismantling the powers of Congress. They have to rise to that moment and demand big things.

Vought is expanding the playing field to thinks off the table. Dems need to do the same.

###

This is a great thread. I don’t think I quite agree with all of it but OP makes it clear, if a few Dems peel off to vote with the GOP, then this is a great tell that it’s all Kabuki theater.

8) This also puts the House in the jackpot.

Will House Republicans vote to accept the Senate deal? If they defect, how many Dems will vote to make up the difference. (Answer: as many Dems as it takes, Jeffries will see to this. While publicly "no," he'll make the plan work.)

Master of the House: The Pelosi Paradox How the Strongest Speaker Made Congress Weak

I chart how 60s' liberals' frustration with House minority rule in their own party led us to a different kind of minority rule now, unintentionally accelerated by Pelosi's iron grip as Speaker. Johnson's turned the strong speaker model into a WH appendage, so we need a new one

TL;DR: Dems made a coordinated move to end shutdown but risk giving up power if they treat short-term deals as wins. GOP's internal chaos is deliberate - it shifts power toward the exec and weakens Congress. The fight is really about whether democratic institutions or Trump chaos controls the purse.

seems to me that those democrats inclined not to fight perceive themselves as living through a somewhat ordinary cycle of presidential overreach and backlash and not something much more significant and dangerous

More than anything else, this is what led some Senate Democrats to cut a deal: Trump’s willingness to hurt people exceeds their willingness to see people get hurt. I want to give them their due on this: They are hearing from their constituents and seeing the mounting problems, and they are trying to do what they see as the responsible, moral thing. They do not believe that holding out will lead to Trump restoring the subsidies. They fear that their Republican colleagues would, under mounting pressure, do as Trump had demanded and abolish the filibuster. (Whether that would be a good or a bad thing is a subject for another column.) This, in the end, is the calculation the defecting Senate Democrats are making: They don’t think a longer shutdown will cause Trump to cave. They just think it will cause more damage. If I were in the Senate, I wouldn’t vote for this compromise. Shutdowns are an opportunity to make an argument, and the country was just starting to pay attention. If Trump wanted to cancel flights over Thanksgiving rather than keep health care costs down, I don’t see why Democrats should save him from making his priorities so exquisitely clear. And I worry that Democrats have just taught Trump that they will fold under pressure. That’s the kind of lesson he remembers.

like this is basically it, the melts melted under pressure

it's sort of interesting to me that the current debate on the New Right over on the other site is essentially how to co-opt the more radical wing of the movement without the bad optics

i don't think this is good, tbh