Divyang Shah

What to make of POTUS's attempt to fire the Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)?

Let's run down what knowledgable people are saying...

Motherfucking wind farms…

Chart from BIS paper showing monetary conditions index (MCI) is substantially lower than the policy rate and estimates of the shadow rate.

What if monetary policy isn't actually all that tight? Interesting BIS paper covered here by @thomas-chow.bsky.social - a new monetary conditions index tries to capture effect of balance sheet size in a more nuanced way than the shadow rate www.centralbanking.com/central-bank...

Currently on the phone with Visa

Instead of starting with a complaint, I approached this as a Confused American Consumer who doesn't understand why they can't buy things off a website they use

The call center rep immediately asked if it was about Steam/itch

(cont)

South Park is getting canceled after this lmao.

Opinion | 11 tips for becoming a columnist Here’s my advice for handling the awesome responsibility of this job.

Some professional news: After more than a decade of columnizing at The Washington Post, I'm taking the buyout.
This is my last column. It is my advice to any other lucky pundits who land a perch like this -- with 11 principles I've aspired to, even if I haven't always achieved them:
wapo.st/3TU2fGw

#squirrel 🐿️

You know those box of wires you keep forgetting just in case or I might need it someday...well I threw away my box two weeks ago. And now I just so happen to need one of those old wires from the box.

TCA Awards 2025 Nominations: ‘Severance’ Tops Tally, Followed by ‘Adolescence,’ ‘Hacks,’ ‘The Pitt,’ ‘The Studio’ TV Critics Assn. unveiles the nominations for the 2025 edition of the TCA Awards. 'Severance' tops tally, followed by 'Adolescence,' 'Hacks.".

(Variety) - The Television Critics Association has announced nominees for its 41st annual TCA Awards — and leading the pack is Apple TV+’s “Severance" ..

#SimplyTheBest
@variety.com @benstiller.redhour.com @stevekovach.bsky.social @abbyseymour.bsky.social
variety.com/2025/tv/news...

ECB pricing for Sep meeting (blue) and front-month WTI (white) correlated since Israel-Iran conflict began

We used to call it the FTQ bid...but now its just flight to safety because you know quality is not the same

China puts heavy 75% tax on US imports of vital engineering plastic The levy, which also hits firms from the EU, Japan and Taiwan came despite a 90-day truce in the trade war between the two countries.

amp.scmp.com/economy/chin...

Bessent Calls Moody’s ‘Lagging Indicator’ of US Fiscal Health Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent downplayed concerns over the US’s government debt and the inflationary impact of tariffs on companies including Walmart Inc., saying the Trump administration is determined to lower federal spending and grow the economy.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent downplayed concerns over the US’s government debt and the inflationary impact of tariffs on companies including Walmart, saying the Trump administration is determined to lower federal spending and grow the economy

US threatens maximum tariffs as it takes tougher line on trade talks Treasury secretary Scott Bessent says rates will jump to the high levels set on ‘liberation day’ if countries do not negotiate

US threatens maximum tariffs as it takes tougher line on trade talks

https://www.ft.com/content/1a69dff7-6513-44f3-850d-5a19a18683f2

The markets are declaring tariff victory too soon | Opinion A potential supply and demand shock means the US economy may be in for years of volatility

The markets are declaring tariff victory too soon | Opinion

https://www.ft.com/content/9cc7d8b3-3506-469d-afe4-3871ea551d9b

POLITICO looks at Trump’s backtracking in:

1. Tariffing China
2. Firing Powell
3. Annexing Canada
4. Bombing Houthis

“.. These limits, both self-imposed and not, are starting to define the contours of an otherwise unbridled presidency.”

@politico.com
www.politico.com/news/2025/05...

How Trump weaponises uncertainty Keeping your opponents guessing can be an effective strategy for politicians. It’s also a double-edged one, writes trader-turned-neuroscientist John Coates

Initially I was put off by the fact it looked like yet another piece on Trump. But this was a fascinating read on stress and cortisol.

Selling of dollar assets signals start of longer-term shift, warn investors [FREE TO READ] Big institutional money managers said to trim US exposure on concerns over policymaking

“Frankly, I think we’ve seen peak investment in US assets”

Bankers, fund managers and CIOs predict slow bleed out of dollar assets, as real money chips away at a big US overweight. With @marymcd.bsky.social
on.ft.com/4jQ7EKf

Letting unis go bust will be popular with voters right up until the economic and societal affects hit them square in the face.

This is exactly why outsourcing politics to focus groups and those who cannot adjust from campaigning to governing is disastrous.

CBC on TWD...it has "returned to a relatively stable situation."

FX options market says different....there is still a 30 vol spread on the o/n

The State of Financial Stability with Steven Kelly (Yale) & Leslie Falconio (UBS CIO) Podcast Episode · UBS On-Air: Market Moves · 04/16/2025 · 30m

Great to hop on the UBS podcast to discuss "the state of financial stability."

Lots on the usual suspects: Treasury market, private credit, etc. Also, why I don't think the weakening of the dollar represents a changing of the "flight to safety" order (yet, at least):

Transpacific trade is already seizing up because of the tariffs.

Three weeks ago, about 60,000 TEU (a measure of container volume) were scheduled to be "blanked" from April 16-May 10 (cancelled voyages/stops at a port). Now the figure is *367,800*
www.sea-intelligence.com/press-room/3...

The freight guys have really started freaking out over the past 48-72 hours:

Things are gonna start not showing up on shelves soon.

I lied we're doing this tonight. It'll be long.

The basis trade is a fixed income arbitrage trade which seeks to profit from the spread between cash bonds and futures.

What's a cash bond? It's USTs. For example, the current 10y Treasury note is a 4 5/8ths % coupon bond maturing in February 2035.

The Tactics Elon Musk Uses to Manage His 'Legion' of Babies-and Their Mothers The world's richest man juggles more than a dozen children and 'harem drama' along with running his companies and advising Trump. He recently took a paternity test in a battle with one woman over money and privacy.

Musk refers to his offspring as a "legion," a reference to the ancient military units that could contain thousands of soldiers and were key to extending the reach of the Roman Empire. During St. Clair's pregnancy, Musk suggested that they bring in other women to have even more of their children faster. "To reach legion-level before the apocalypse," he said to St. Clair in a text message viewed by The Wall Street Journal, "we will need to use surrogates."

During the height of her interactions with the billionaire owner, Fong earned $21,000 on the platform in a two-week period in November, according to a screenshot she posted. That was about when Musk sent her a direct message asking if she was interested in having his child, according to people familiar with the matter. The two had never met in person. Fong didn't move forward with Musk because she pictured having children in a more traditional nuclear family, but confided to a few friends about the approach -including St. Clair, whom she knew as another conservative social-media figure-and how she worried that turning him down could hurt her earnings.

Once Musk learned that Fong disclosed the request to others, he chided her for not using discretion, according to the people, and unfollowed her. That contributed to a fall in her engagement, and her earnings declined.

Free link to crazy WSJ story about Musk and his “harem drama.” Can’t do it justice with the four-screenshot limit!

www.wsj.com/politics/elo...

Does International Trade Hurt the United States? | Econofact The U.S. has been running a trade deficit every year since 1975. However, both exports and imports have more than doubled since the beginning of this period.

Countries are not "ripped off" when they run a trade deficit with another country. Bilateral trade accounts can be very misleading. My newest Econofact memo explains these basic economic points - basic but worth recounting given current policies. econofact.org/does-interna...

DOGE is a criminal conspiracy to defraud the people of the United States

University of Manchester June 2018 talk Monetary Sovereigns, Monetary Subjects and Monetary Vassals: A Spectrum Approach to Monetary Sovereignty and Our Dollar World Notes on the Crises Document Type: Written Remarks Main Speaker: Nathan Tankus Location: University of Manchester Law School (at the invitation of John Haskell) Subject: The legal foundations of Dollar Hegemony, particularly focused on the role of non-reciprocal obligations Date: June 6th, 2018 Youtube Link to live talk: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xZnEDrVfcHU

FYI, for people who want something now on Dollar Hegemony, here's the written version of my June 2018 remarks at the U of Manchester (thanks @johnhaskell.bsky.social!) entitled "Monetary Sovereigns, Monetary Subjects & Monetary Vassals: A Spectrum Approach to Monetary Sovereignty & Our Dollar World"

I've spent my entire career listening to US investors enthusiastically trashing the EU. The turnaround we're seeing this week is truly something to behold.