Leila Davis

Every month for the last 77 years, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has estimated Americans' unemployment rate

This streak dies tomorrow

Govt staff could not survey Americans about whether they're working or looking for work in Oct, the 1st time in 934 months

This blind spot will remain forever

I never would have imagined that a state Surgeon General, in 2025, would vow to end all vaccine mandates. Florida is an international tourist destination. This will not end well for any of us.

Opinion | Why Markets Aren’t Freaking Out Over Trump’s Attack on the Fed And why that’s a big mistake.

My new Politico Op Ed is live! Will send it out to my email list after I pick up lunch.

www.politico.com/news/magazin...

I think it's a mistake to think of the firing of Lisa Cook primarily in terms of Central Bank Independence, and its impact on the inflation rate.

The most significant issue is also more basic: it's the rule of law.

This is the make or break moment for Powell's @federalreserve.gov. If they do not defend Lisa Cook and treat her as still on the Board, the fight over the Fed as an independent agency will officially be over. see my Friday piece.

www.crisesnotes.com/trump-vs-pow...

Just received this statement from Lisa Cook:
"President Trump purported to fire me 'for cause' when no cause exists under the law, and he has no authority to do so. I will not resign. I will continue to carry out my duties to help the American economy as I have been doing since 2022."

Former WWII Internment Camp Turned Into Immigrant Detention Center Sparks Outrage From Activists "It is inconceivable that the United States is once again building concentration camps, denying the lessons learned 80 years ago," Ann Burroughs said.

“It is inconceivable that the United States is once again building concentration camps, denying the lessons learned 80 years ago,” Ann Burroughs, president and CEO of the Japanese American National Museum, said in a statement to HuffPost. www.huffpost.com/entry/former...

MBTA will again experiment with late-night service As part of a new schedule that takes effect Aug. 24, the T plans to extend evening service by almost an hour on all four subway lines on Friday and Saturday nights and on a handful of bus routes, incl...

YES to the expanded service and YES to this framing for it:

"We're doing this to ensure that the people that need to use the system can use the system. We're a public transit agency. We do it to provide a public service."

www.wbur.org/news/2025/08...

we all know that the proof for the administration that an institution is not implementing affirmative action will be the percentage of nonwhite admits. the lower the better. any more than a smattering of black and Hispanic students will be evidence of illegal discrimination (against whites)

I am increasingly convinced that the economic impact of tariffs is most likely to show up as a fall in business profits, a collapse investment spending, and a recession - deflation, not inflation.

Regardless of politics, economists should make clear: we do not condone reckless attacks on our statistical agencies, including by our fellow economists.

The staff at these agencies work painstakingly to collect the data our democracy and economy depend on.

Figure from Ernie Tedeschi titled nonfarm payroll employment percent revisions

Important to remember that because of the incredible work of government statisticians, initial BLS employment estimates have become MORE accurate.

Its revisions are now smaller than those from years past

excellent figure from @ernietedeschi.bsky.social

The initial estimate of job change for a month is based on the growth or loss of jobs at the businesses that have reported their data. Generally, BLS assumes that the employment situation at businesses that had reported is representative of the situation at those that had not yet reported. BLS continues to collect outstanding reports from the businesses in the sample as it prepares a second and then a third estimate for the month. With each subsequent estimate, more businesses have provided their information. In 2012, the average collection rate at the time of the third estimate for a month was 94.6 percent. (See chart 1.)

Why do the jobs numbers get revised?

our markets and policymakers want data NOW but employer data dribbles in over months

1st estimate is based on the 75% of employers who respond promptly

Updates occur as more data rolls in: 95% response rate by final revision 1/N

www.bls.gov/opub/btn/vol...

The media coverage of the dismissal of the BLS commissioner as another “wild time in Trumpland” shows that the media is more committed to entertainment than news. Any reputable news organization should report what the BLS does, why it is important, and why its work should not be politicized.

Big news in today's #jobs report are the revisions. The labor market is much weaker than originally reported the last two months. While payrolls grew 73k in July, May and June data were revised down a total of 258k to 19k and 14k, respectively, bringing 3-month average growth down to 35k.
#EconSky

Childhood Vaccination Rates Have Dropped Again, C.D.C. Data Shows

New federal data shows that vaccination rates among American children entering kindergarten fell during the 2024-25 school year, extending a worrying trend that began during the Covid-19 pandemic.

www.nytimes.com/2025/07/31/h...

Do SNAP Food Restrictions Help Health, or Punish Poor People? Indiana is among several states restricting the purchase of sugary foods with nutrition assistance funds.

Indiana is 1 of 6 red states that banned purchases of sugary drinks & candy with SNAP funding. Will this make SNAP so complex that smaller stores won't take it? Does restricting SNAP make sense without healthier options? @emmarjanssen.bsky.social traveled to Gary & E.Chicago for this great feature.

This footage of Trump and Federal Reserve chairman Powell at the Federal Reserve construction site is absolutely amazing. What a time to be alive.

The government of Israel is exterminating every man, woman and child in Gaza. And our governments, and most leaders of liberal institutions in "the West" - parties both left and right, the press, universities - are doing all they can to support this. This is the central political fact of our time.

Final CBO score of the "big beautiful bill" is out

Largest Medicaid cuts ever - in fact, at least 4 times the size of the previous largest; $894-$990 bn cut

Kicks 10 million off health insurance

Largest SNAP cuts ever, $197 bn cut

Still increases the deficit by $3.4 trillion from huge tax cuts

Who’s Really Been Driving Retail Spending The unbearable slightness of aggregate economic data.

Top quintile driving growth:

"much of the so-called resilience of the American consumer over the past few years has been propped up by those at the top, while the majority of households have been quietly tightening their belts."
www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...

In court testimony, Boston ICE official recalls pressure from above to arrest Rümeysa Öztürk - The Boston Globe "I can’t recall a time that its come top down like this with a visa revocation," the ICE official said in Boston court on Tuesday.

"A top Boston immigration official testified in federal court Tuesday that supervisors instructed him to prioritize the arrest of Tufts PhD student Rümeysa Öztürk, the first time he’s ever received such a directive from ICE in his career working at the agency." www.bostonglobe.com/2025/07/15/m...

this was a fun @moreperfectunion.bsky.social video to be a part of

Since April 4, #SCOTUS has issued 15 rulings on 17 emergency applications filed by Trump (three birthright citizenship apps were consolidated).

It has granted relief to Trump ... in all 15 rulings.

It has written majority opinions in only 3.

Today's order is the 7th with no explanation *at all.*

Would Mamdani's 'millionaire tax' chase the rich out of New York City? Zohran Mamdani, a democratic socialist, is a leading candidate for mayor of New York. He wants to tax the rich. Business interests are panicking.

Do higher taxes on the wealthy encourage them to move? No.
After New Jersey increased their tax rate for the very wealthy, “a total of 37 millionaires Ieft. In that same year, the millionaire population of NJ increased by more than 3,000 individuals,” said @lindsayowens.bsky.social to @usatoday.com.

Updated research shows over 25% of manufactured homes in Michigan owned by private equity, similar entities The Private Equity Stakeholder Project (PESP) and Manufactured Housing Action (MHAction) have released an update to the Private Equity Manufactured Housing Tracker.

Updated research from PESP and MHAction shows Michigan has a disproportionate share of private equity-owned manufactured housing: private equity firms own more than 25% of manufactured homes in Michigan.

Well see what I got today ????? We worked so hard with all the authors to produce a great book. Thank you @ElgarPublishing and @Elgar_Economics for your support

You can order it here for yourself or assign it to your students in the Fall or winter.

www.e-elgar.com/shop/gbp/int...

This rise reflects entry of increasingly unprofitable firms, pointing to a long-term weakening in norms of what firms need to demonstrate in terms of profitability when they access public equity markets after 1970.
repec.umb.edu/RePEc/files/...

An empirical analysis of Minsky regimes in the US economy Abstract. In this paper, we analyse Minskian dynamics in the US economy via an empirical application of Minsky’s financing regime classifications to a pane

My presentation updated work with Joao de Souza and Gonzalo Hernandez applying Minsky’s financial instability hypothesis to firm data. We document a long-term rise in the share of U.S. listed corporations with Ponzi structures, starting in the 1970s. academic.oup.com/cje/article-...