@frhoffmann.bsky.social
Doctoral Research Fellow at the Oslo Nuclear Project, University of Oslo. Defense policy, missile technology, and nuclear strategy. Weekly analysis of missile tech, nuclear strategy, and European deterrence ๐ https://missilematters.substack.com/subscribe
Iโve written a short piece on the recent reported drop in Ukraineโs ballistic missile defense intercept rate.
It will be published tomorrow morning on my Missile Matters blog. You can sign up here to receive it directly in your inbox.
missilematters.substack.com/subscribe
European defense manufacturer Helsing presented the CA-1 Europa, a UCAV reportedly capable of performing a range of missions, including deep precision strike.
First test flight expected in 2027.
Thanks for sharing!
Yes it's an insane effort. I was once told by a mini jet engine manufacturer that sometimes an engine doesn't work and they can't figure out why that's the case. Then they just have to throw it away.
So this might sustain the 50 per month number for 2 to 4 months, which is why localization of production and vertical integration is critical.
Good to hear that Fire Point is moving in that direction.
I still maintain that 20 engines per month would be significant, if it can be achieved.
2/2
If I did not have to finish my dissertation, I would probably look up the number of AI-25 turbofan engines that can be sources from the open market.
My ballpark estimate is a low three digit number.
1/2
militarnyi.com/uk/news/fire...
This seems extremely odd. Even if NATO were to shoot down aircraft, that doesn't automatically mean nuclear war.
Who even is the author?
The documents show 2.373 billion euros in funding for Taurus NEO.
This is similar to the 2.1 billion euros reported by Spiegel 11 months ago for 600 missiles. The slight increase may reflect higher material costs or a somewhat larger number of missiles being ordered
www.politico.eu/article/germ...
Hi all,
I just published my latest Missile Matters post on the precarious state of Europe's mini jet engine industry, a sector that is critical to Europe's missile rearmament but remains underappreciated.
Access the post here:
missilematters.substack.com/p/small-thru...
Short summary below.
1/7
Its okay, I just had a German general explain to me that Germany doesn't need to invest in conventional long-range strike weapons because the United States is our ally ๐
21.09.2025 14:26 โ ๐ 29 ๐ 2 ๐ฌ 2 ๐ 0European decisionmakers need to start taking cruise missile engine production seriously.
The necessity may not be immediately as clear as building a new artillery shell plant, but it is just as urgently needed.
7/7
This means European cruise missile programs, including the Taurus KEPD 350 and the Joint Strike Missile, will continue to depend on U.S. turbofan manufacturers for the foreseeable future, which is far from ideal from a strategic autonomy perspective.
6/7
Even more problematic, European industry does not have an indigenous mini turbofan to offer.
While European engine makers, including Safran, MTU, and Rolls-Royce, build or contribute to turbofan engines for aircraft, none have gone through the process of miniaturization.
5/7
However, Safran only supplies high-end turbojet engines that are not suitable for the large numbers of lighter cruise missiles Europe will require.
This is why the Czech manufacturer PBS, which produces suitable engines, but is orienting itself toward the US, is bad news for Europe.
4/7
Unfortunately, the European mini jet engine industry is in a precarious state. Including Ukraine and Turkey, Europe had only four miniature jet engine manufacturers before 2022.
Safran was, and remains, by far the largest, supplying engines to most European cruise missile programs.
3/7
Miniature jet engines are often the most complex part of the cruise missile supply chain.
Scaling European jet engine production is therefore a critical prerequisite for scaling European cruise missile production, assuming Europe does not want to be dependent on others in this sector.
2/7
Hi all,
I just published my latest Missile Matters post on the precarious state of Europe's mini jet engine industry, a sector that is critical to Europe's missile rearmament but remains underappreciated.
Access the post here:
missilematters.substack.com/p/small-thru...
Short summary below.
1/7
5) In Europeโs crowded peacetime skies, civil airspace complicates defensive use of these systems.
As such, no silver bullets exist. Effective solutions will require governments to accept procurement risk, back promising technologies, and support their rapid maturation.
5/5
3) Low-cost interceptors are effective for point defense but unsuitable for area defense.
4) Gun-type solutions like Skyranger provide radar integration but face production limits and high upfront costs. The $1,000 cost per AHEAD round also adds up quickly.
4/5
1) All depend on reliable early warning and tracking.
2) Interceptor drones suffer from poor kinematics and often rely on skilled pilots; autonomous solutions are maturing but will be more expensive.
3/5
Three technologies are most often discussed for countering long-range drones: mobile gun-type solutions like Skyranger, interceptor drones, and low-cost interceptor missiles. Each comes with distinct challenges:
2/5
Hi all,
I published a new Missile Matters post on Europeโs challenge in countering long-range drones.
Access the full post here:
missilematters.substack.com/p/europe-nee...
Short summary below.
1/5
I fully agree with @frhoffmann.bsky.social here.
I have for long argued that deterrence has to contain defensive and offensive capability. When I argued for ๐ฉ๐ฐ acquisition of TLAM 7-8 years ago, there were many who ironically saw this as โtoo offensiveโ
warontherocks.com/2025/09/deni...
Countering Russiaโs Long-Range Drone Threat
Challenges and options for European long-range drone defense
By @frhoffmann.bsky.social
missilematters.substack.com/p/europe-nee...
I'll be writing about the relevance of this event, as well as the general importance of mini-turbojet/turbofan technology, and why Europe is in a pretty bad spot, in my newsletter this weekend.
You can sign up here to receive it straight in your inbox: missilematters.substack.com/subscribe
Mini-jet engine production is one of Europeโs major bottlenecks for rearmament in the missile domain. One of the few manufacturers in the sector shifting a substantial share of its future business abroad is extremely bad news.
2/2
It is difficult to overstate what an industry-policy failure it is for the EU and wider Europe to have enticed PBS Group to invest in the United States rather than scale up production in Europe.
1/2
Interesting article from Hoffmann, which gives a clear recommendation to #Europe to change its strategy for long-range deterrence.
#Russia #Ukraine
1/ โExplosions over Kyiv and other Ukrainian population centers are daily reminders that Russiaโs missiles can reach deep and strike hardโ.
warontherocks.com/2025/09/deni...
But we cannot rely solely on a denial strategy in the missile domain, which is bound to fail.
A massive ramp-up in long-range strike capabilities, a smarter missile defense approach, and a shift toward a punishment-based counterstrike strategy, is necessary.
6/6
