Isentrope

Schumer handled this horribly, but wouldn't he be better off keeping the government shut down so Johnson doesn't swear in Grijalva if that were true then?

I would think it turns on the salience of the issue and then also trying to nail a politician to that issue. That could easily happen in the primary, but who on the R side would attack him for being for Trump's tariffs?

2017 I remember people saying how unlikely it was to see the VA House of Delegates get remotely close until Dems were quite literally a couple coin tosses away from flipping it.

I think to get 4 more seats, you would need the VRA to be abolished. 3 is also stretching it, but nailing down 2 (which may as well be the median outcome) in VA-01 and VA-02 is relatively easy after Tuesday's results.

It's literally an unamendable provision in the Constitution too that states have equal representation in the Senate. At most, you could move some of the Senate's power to the House and treat it as more of an upper house like other countries.

I used to think they did this stuff to maintain access to GOP sources but the arguments don't even try to make sense anymore.

Yeah I thought I was being irrationally optimistic by saying she probably wins by 8-12 after her polling had her around 5-7, but then she just ends up winning by even more.

AZ (possibly both chambers)
PA Senate
WI (maybe both?)
MI
MN House

IA, OH, GA Govs, might be able to hold KS Gov too.

The IEEPA ones were the only ones in question right? Trump's plan would be to impose sectoral ones under 232 but it would take time and couldn't just be as discretionary as how he's used the reciprocal global minimum tariffs to date.

Should try to get Davids to actually run in KS, also Osborne is trying again in NE.

The polls didn't even point to a close race this year like 2017 (when Northam was only up 3 in RCP's average), Spanberger has a very good chance of winning by double digits if even Trafalgar can only get her down to a 6 point lead.

You see Tories holding their gains in Brampton?

Here, I think NJ has a surprisingly large early vote so the EV is mildly predictive.

I think it would depend heavily on the state too. A state like PA where only 1/3 of the population votes early doesn’t give us any insight on the actual vote. OTOH, you can predict states like CO and NV based on the early vote since 4/5 of the state has voted.

She graduated in 2011 too, any advice she can give on how to be a 1L is going to be so generalized that it's not going to be terribly useful.

The people backing Platner are the ones who came up with numberous purity tests over the years to dump on qualified candidates in favor of dirtbag left types in their privileged crusade to take down the Democratic Party from the left.

Former Maine House Speaker. He's only 33, actually grew up poor, and is fairly progressive.

Which examples do you have of the former not working out? On the other side of the aisle, there have been a large number of high profile losses because they didn't pick safe moderate-esque candidates in winnable seats.

The longer there's tariff uncertainty, the stickier the inflation is going to be too, which is just going to bleed downstream to businesses having no idea how to plan for expansion.

It kind of calls into question his judgment and there's also a concern that he has an obsessive personality that would turn him into another Fetty if he got elected.

The reddit posts he made pretty strongly corroborate his former political director's assertion that he's a history buff. There's next to no chance he didn't know what the tattoo was.

It's incredible seeing all these people just close rank on this as no big deal despite all of the much smaller mole hills they turned into purity tests over the years. It's not even like Maine lacks viable progressive options like Ryan Fecteau either.

So basically, for all the attacks on DC insiders, DC progs tried to astroturf Platner's candidacy because he looks like what they think a blue collar person is supposed to look like.

LV screen already?

If you listen to her second response, she actually suggests she wants to “rig” the race too by propping up an R. I wonder if misspeaking on that had a bigger role in why she melted down.

Tbh given how Penn can make the Harris poll say whatever he wants (like how it showed large numbers of third party voters when his wife was running No Labels), I do wonder how they conduct this thing.

A bunch of politicians are already re-upping their endorsements of Jones, though it’s possible there are more shoes left to drop. The normal gap between top and bottom performing row office elections seems to be about 4-5 points in recent VA elections.

Wittman doesn’t strike me as someone who realizes his seat is swingy now, nor someone who has any idea how to run in a swingy seat.

It sounds like he knew the people who would read his skeets in the most bad faith way to stoke outrage rather than engagement were here, and I guess he’s right.

While the economic indicators are all pretty bad right now, ADP numbers are regularly off by hundreds of thousands