Anderson Frailey

He's promising to protect the integrity of the data by firing statisticians who follow established methods of data collection and processing whenever those methods yield numbers that don't please the boss.

Of course, this doesn't consider each teams' future prospects so I wouldn't use these projections to pick winners and losers alone, but gotta hand it to the Padres for going for it this year

Chart showing how the probability each MLB team wins the 2025 World Series changed during the trade deadline. The biggest gains were the Astros (+4.31 percentage points) and Padres (+4.09 percentage points). the biggest losers were the Dodgers (-3.24 percentage points), Blue Jays (-2.06 percentage points), and Brewers (-1.95 percentage points)

Chart showing how the probability each MLB team makes the playoffs changed during the trade deadline. The Padres saw the biggest gain (+26.18 percentage points).

According to my model, both the Padres and Astros improved their World Series odds by about 4 percentage points yesterday. Most of those 8 points came from the Dodgers, Brewers, and Blue Jays. San Diego in particular increased their playoff probability from ~60% to 85%!

I was just informed that our Country’s “Jobs Numbers” are being produced by a Biden Appointee, Dr. Erika McEntarfer, the Commissioner of Labor Statistics, who faked the Jobs Numbers before the Election to try and boost Kamala’s chances of Victory. This is the same Bureau of Labor Statistics that overstated the Jobs Growth in March 2024 by approximately 818,000 and, then again, right before the 2024 Presidential Election, in August and September, by 112,000. These were Records — No one can be that wrong? We need accurate Jobs Numbers. I have directed my Team to fire this Biden Political Appointee, IMMEDIATELY. She will be replaced with someone much more competent and qualified. Important numbers like this must be fair and accurate, they can’t be manipulated for political purposes. McEntarfer said there were only 73,000 Jobs added (a shock!) but, more importantly, that a major mistake was made by them, 258,000 Jobs downward, in the prior two months. Similar things happened in the first part of the year, always to the negative. The Economy is BOOMING under “TRUMP” despite a Fed that also plays games, this time with Interest Rates, where they lowered them twice, and substantially, just before the Presidential Election, I assume in the hopes of getting “Kamala” elected – How did that work out? Jerome “Too Late” Powell should also be put “out to pasture.” Thank you for your attention to this matter!

Unquestionably the most dangerous and corrupt attack on the independence of US economic data in American history. Trump is firing the head of the BLS, a longtime civil servant confirmed 86-8 by the Senate, simply because the job numbers came in below his expectations today

The unholy alliance that killed the AI moratorium ‘Ted Cruz was the biggest loser in this,’ said Bannon.

Just a killer story about MAGA vs the tech right by @tinanguyen.bsky.social www.theverge.com/politics/704...

There was a spotted lantern on my balcony yesterday and my attempts to kill it were unsuccessful. Today it’s back with three buddies. I’m afraid I may have started a turf war

We ran a randomized controlled trial to see how much AI coding tools speed up experienced open-source developers.

The results surprised us: Developers thought they were 20% faster with AI tools, but they were actually 19% slower when they had access to AI than when they didn't.

Excellent article by German Lopez for the NYT about a big, important problem in the US:

Most crimes aren’t solved. If you murder someone, it’s essentially a coin flip whether you’ll be arrested for it. If you steal a car, you’ll almost certainly get away with it.

Powell says he is concerned about the impact of cuts at the statistical agencies. High-quality statistics are "a huge public good," he says. "I hate to see us cutting back on that... I would want to continue investing in that for the good of the general public."
#EconSky

Haven’t felt like this since the ‘06 rose bowl 🤘🏾🤘🏾🤘🏾

LLMs making up packages that do everything for you is the AI equivalent of assuming a can opener

Tables of projections for each MLB team in 2025 split by division

Bringing my annual MLB projections to bluesky! Here are my projections for the 2025 season. I will let you know in October how confident in them I am. They'll eventually appear on my website and update everyday, but I'll set that up after I defend my dissertation in a month

I can’t believe this has to be said, but: You cannot tell the story of Jackie Robinson—as a ballplayer, serviceman, or human—without discussing our country’s history of racism.

From Around the Horn:

Every time I use stata I start to see the appeal until I want to do something ever so slightly above basic data processing/analysis. Then I want to throw my computer through a window

I haven’t paid for parking at an undisclosed location for ~3 years on the belief that they don’t check. Got a ticket for the first time today. Now the question is, how much do I update my priors? Enough to pay for parking tomorrow? I’m leaning towards no

American citizens should not have to enter into a contract with a private company (that’s an X account signup!) to receive government communications

Thanks Jason! And hook ‘em!

You can read the latest draft of the paper here! andersonfrailey.github.io/files/supply...

This raises buyer’s expectations for quality in the market, in turn raising the price they’re willing to pay and quality of the products offered

By reducing the amount of data that can be collected and requiring investments in cyber security, the GDPR reduces the viability of regulated orgs as hacking targets, removing them from the market. If low value targets are disproportionately affected, the expected value of those remaining increases

To explain what’s happening, I propose a model where the GDPR alleviates the lemons problem present in the market

Despite this, there’s no change in the total number of records, the individual pieces of data, being traded. This is because the data packages themselves increased in size, as measured by the number of records they contain, by almost 70 percent on average

Using a novel dataset of data packages, the bundles of data stolen in data breaches and subsequently sold in illicit markets, I find that the GDPR caused a 60% reduction in the number of data packages sold (I use the word “data” a lot in this paper)

I’m studying how hackers respond to economic incentives. Specifically, I examine how the EU’s General Data Protection Regulation affected the supply of stolen data coming out of the EU

Hi, #EconSky! I’m Anderson, a 6th year PhD candidate at the University of Virginia. For those going to ASSA this week, I’ll be presenting my job market paper, The Effects of Privacy Regulation on the Supply of Stolen Data, during the CSMGEP session tomorrow at 8AM. Here’s a short thread about it