@samagreene.bsky.social
Professor of Russian Politics, King's College London. Political sociologist. Progressive. Co-author, Putin v the People. ๐ฌ๐ง/๐บ๐ธ
Get better analysis of the Russian economy than Trump does. Tune into Sasha & Sasha at The Bell.
pro.thebell.io/webinar_sept...
The list of countries that have moved to outlaw Soros and the Open Society Foundations is long.
Oddly enough, it does not include any democracies.
Remember when the anti-immigrant MAGA base went to war against Elon and Vivek over visas? Looks like they found a compromise. on.ft.com/4nisPq2
19.09.2025 21:45 โ ๐ 30 ๐ 9 ๐ฌ 0 ๐ 0Hey New York! Come hang out on Thursday at @nyujordancenter.bsky.social!
harriman.columbia.edu/event/10-yea...
In this view of the world, there is no room for people endowed with free will and inalienable rights. There is only room for humanoid furniture, animatronics whose function is to soothe the aesthetic senses of those who believe that true powerโeven in a republicโis inherited.
23.08.2025 11:45 โ ๐ 85 ๐ 22 ๐ฌ 2 ๐ 0So, the party of limited government, strict constitutional originalism and free markets is now lining up for federal troops in cities, government-imposed censorship in education and state ownership of major corporations.
Shocking, but not surprising, I suppose.
A genuinely productive negotiating process will be a complicated and protracted one. But if Trump doesnโt have the patience for that kind of process, or if Putin is able to maneuver him into impatience, Europe will have to push back.
/END
The Trump-led process is predicated on the notion that security can be had without accountability. That may be true for America across the ocean, so that is doubtful. If Europeans are to own their own security, however, they will have to draw their own conclusions.
/10
Meanwhile, even as everyone is talking about security guarantees and โland swapsโ, note what weโre not talking about: reparations, accountability for war, crimes, and dealing with the fact that Russia is bent on military dominion in its neighborhood.
/9
Europe and Ukraine will also need to decide what genuine security looks like. They will not trust assurances from Moscow, and they may be learning that they canโt trust assurances from Washington either.
/8
A cease-fire or any other agreement, whether it involves a land swap or not, requires scrupulous attention to detail. In other words, it requires someone other than the current American top team to do the negotiating. But thatโs only half the problem.
/7
There is no inherent reason why a cease-fire cannot be reached in Ukraine, and Trump may be even deserves some credit for creating a process that brings that forward. But if Europe wants a cease-fire that delivers genuine security, it may have to run the process from here.
/6
If Zelenskyy and his European allies all go home and leave the ball in the Trump/Putin side of the court, the best outcome they can hope for is more confusion.
/5
Trump has once again shown himself to be malleable, putting some kind of security guarantees, and even a return to discussion of a cease-fire back on the table. Who knows what will happen when he gets off the phone with Putin later today.
/4
The apocalyptic scenarioโanother blowup in the Oval Officeโwas avoided, and thatโs good. But the second worst possible outcome was that the European leaders who accompany Zelenskyy would breathe a sigh of relief, and Iโm afraid that may be what weโre seeing.
/3
First things first: if weโve learned anything thus far, itโs that we should give it 12-18 hours before drawing conclusions about anything involving Trump and Putin. Not that that will stop anybody.
Thus, my way too early take is that โฆ Iโm nervous.
/2
For six months now, European leaders have confused Trumpโs malleability for an opportunity. What it really means is that US policy is not the foundation on which European and Ukrainian security can be built.
A quick thread
/1
As we wait: the morning after the day before and before the day after
tldrussia.substack.com/p/tldrussia-...
Looking ahead to tomorrowโs US-Ukraine-Europe meeting in the White House, for @npr.org
www.npr.org/2025/08/17/n...
Most of us had assumed, I think, that the Anchorage summit ended early because the sides couldnโt agree on much.
Turns out Putin just decided to quit while he was ahead.
The ball is now in Europeโs court.
Ok, so this tweet didnโt age well. The piece did, though:
โReversing this trajectory will require โฆ a commitment to the near-term reduction of European dependence on US decision-making, while simultaneously building credible deterrence against Moscow.โ
As expected, Trump and Putin leave Anchorage adrift. As I wrote Thursday for @cepa.org, the question now is as it has long been: can Europe take charge?
cepa.org/article/unmo...
Maybe โ just maybe โ we could accept that Labour have done the analysis and know what theyโre doing?
14.08.2025 20:20 โ ๐ 41 ๐ 3 ๐ฌ 4 ๐ 0Because nothing will ever seem like enough.
13.08.2025 22:01 โ ๐ 3 ๐ 0 ๐ฌ 0 ๐ 0
"The risk is not that Europe overreaches, but that it undershoots. Europe will never have all the resources it needs to assure itself of victory. Failing to go to diplomatic war with the army it has, however, assures it of defeat."
My two cents ahead of Anchorage for @cepa.org
Yeah, but if she recognizes that sheโs not going to out-Jenrick Jenrick, then thereโs little to be gained. Just as thereโs little profit in Jenrick trying to out-Farage Farage.
13.08.2025 17:20 โ ๐ 1 ๐ 0 ๐ฌ 0 ๐ 0Far be it for me to defend Badenoch, but did anybody consider that maybe she didn't want to meet Vance? What's the upside for her?
13.08.2025 16:53 โ ๐ 23 ๐ 2 ๐ฌ 2 ๐ 0
A few thoughts on Putinโs very good week, for @paulsonne.bsky.social @nytimes.com
www.nytimes.com/2025/08/10/w...
Security for Ukraine and Europe depends on the two coming together to insulate themselves from Washington and construct deterrence against Moscow. The talks that really matter, then, arenโt the ones in Alaska next week. Theyโre the ones in Europe, right now.
/END
Ukraine is thus caught between two fatal delusions. The first is Americaโs delusion that Russia will provide security for Ukraine. It canโt and wonโt. The second is Europeโs delusion that its security must run through America. Not anymore.
/3
