Jacob S. Rugh

Gallup has new polling on immigration. Topline findings:
-Americans hate Trump's immigration policy (35% approve, 62% disapprove)
-Share who say immigration is a "good thing" for the country just hit an all-time high (79%)

news.gallup.com/poll/692522/...

Mike Lee Can’t Stop Throwing Social Media Grenades. His Church Isn’t Happy. The Utah senator’s online persona has further damaged his already frayed relationship with The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints.

www.politico.com/news/magazin...

The arbitrary exercise of government power is the signature act of authoritarian regimes

It's Not Just Murder That's Likely At Historic Lows The US is on track to record the lowest violent crime rate since 1968 and lowest property crime rate ever.

It's not just the US murder rate that is likely at or near the lowest level ever recorded. The data from the first 4 months of 2025 points to the possibility of the lowest reported property crime rate ever & lowest violent crime rate in decades. This week's piece:
jasher.substack.com/p/its-not-ju...

A Look Back at How Fear and False Beliefs Bolstered U.S. Public Support for War in Iraq Twenty years ago this month, the U.S. launched a major invasion of Iraq. President George W. Bush and his administration at first drew broad public support for the use of military force. Yet the campa...

Trending today on the @pewresearch.org site: "A Look Back at How Fear and False Beliefs Bolstered U.S. Public Support for War in Iraq"

@ryanburge.bsky.social reports NO change in LDS/Mormon vote, 2020-2024

This is meaningful bc the non-LDS vote moved +6 R (LDS +6 D vs. USA chg.)

"The conclusion...is unmistakable-the LDS electorate is not so strongly tied with the Republican party now."

www.graphsaboutreligion.com/p/2024-elect...

NEW: Census Bureau lost over 1,000 employees through early retirement and voluntary separation offers in recent months and plans to cut some statistical work, acting Director Ron Jarmin says. "It feels a little bit like Thanos snapped his finger and a lot of your friends and colleagues went away..."

"How Southern Politicians Reformed Textbooks to Resist Civil Rights Demands" -- my new article in the Journal of Historical Political Economy.

Ungated version: tinyurl.com/y32wev8y

I standby my assessment for the time being. I think that Beshear is a viable winnable candidate. Barring somebody I have not yet met on the national stage. But you know just don’t fall in love with politicians. they are of a place.

🔵NEW MAP: 81% (48/59) of suburban Utah metro Wasatch Front cities swung blue, 2020-2024.
📈Heavily Latino central cities like Ogden edged right a tiny bit--much less than other such US cities.
👀The 4-county area is the only major metro to not swing right in 2024: ATL, PIT, SEA were close, just +1 R.

Fight or Flight: The Impact of Post-Tenure Evaluations on Faculty Productivity and Selection 30 Pages Posted: 19 May 2025 Simon Quach University of Southern California Zhengyi Yu University of Southern California - Department of Economics Date Written: May 15, 2025 Abstract This paper examines the labor market effects of Florida's 2022 post-tenure review policy, which weakened tenure protections at public universities. Using a differencein-differences approach, we compare faculty outcomes in Florida to nearby states. We find the policy increased faculty exits-particularly among high-performing researchers-indicating a brain drain rather than improved selection. Additionally, we detect no productivity gains among incumbents and observe a decline in the research output of new hires. Overall, the findings suggest that reducing tenure protections negatively affects the research capacity and competitiveness of public universities.

papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....

BREAKING: Judge Burroughs has granted Harvard's restraining order, barring the administration from terminating its foreign student population. storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.us...

The Wasatch Front being the only major metro area not to swing to the right in 2024 is very significant, though I still worry that at least in the short term, Utah's elected Republicans will keep moving to the right even as their voters move left.

Bonus precinct-level maps of 2024 election results and 2020-2024 vote swing.
Comment below on the Easter eggs in here like big blue swings in South Jordan (Daybreak), Orem (UVU new campus ballot drop box), Centerville/Bountiful, north/east Provo (educational polarization 3 cycles in a row), etc.

🔵NEW MAP: 81% (48/59) of suburban Utah metro Wasatch Front cities swung blue, 2020-2024.
📈Heavily Latino central cities like Ogden edged right a tiny bit--much less than other such US cities.
👀The 4-county area is the only major metro to not swing right in 2024: ATL, PIT, SEA were close, just +1 R.

Utah County has swung left (D +36) more than any other county in the state since 2004.

Utah has swung left (D +24) more than other state.

Provo, Utah County seat, has swung left (D +52) more than any other city in Utah.

Congrats to the new Utah Co. Democratic chair @darinself.com Let's go!

Ten actions every one of us can take to defend democracy Every sector of society is under threat. We must work together.

jennifermercieca.substack.com/p/ten-action...
Words of wisdom by @jenmercieca.bsky.social

Utah County has swung left (D +36) more than any other county in the state since 2004.

Utah has swung left (D +24) more than other state.

Provo, Utah County seat, has swung left (D +52) more than any other city in Utah.

Congrats to the new Utah Co. Democratic chair @darinself.com Let's go!

Huge congratulations! I was proud to cast my vote for you and I am excited for a new era of leadership. We can absolutely clear 100,000 votes for Dem pres. in 2028 and do so much more downballot, too. Let's go, Utah County Democrats. 💙🗳🌊

Dang. I am sorry about the news. Grateful to have you back.

How 2025 Could Feature The Lowest US Murder Rate Ever Recorded Maybe!

New this week: I looked at the math to see if 2025 could feature the lowest murder rate ever recorded. Bottom line: it probably will if we continue to see the same steady decline we've seen since mid-2022, but there’s lots of time left in the year for change.

jasher.substack.com/p/how-2025-c...

The year so far:

• Dems outperform in 19 of 21 specials and flip two deep-red seats

• Liberals defend WI Supreme Court with double-digit victory

• Dems win Omaha mayor's office for first time since 2009

The 2025 Omaha Mayoral Election, A contest between three term Mayor Jean Stohert & Douglas Co. Treasurer John Ewing Jr saw Ewing Ousting Stohert to become the first Dem elected since 2013 when Stohert Ousted then-mayor Jim Suttle, & first African American elected to the position

It's official. Another double digit Dem overperformance and also a party FLIP! Big congrats to Omaha Mayor-elect Ewing!
bsky.app/profile/jake...

Democrats just flipped Nebraska's biggest city And it should make GOP Rep. Don Bacon nervous about next year

Huge news out of Nebraska: Democrat John Ewing just flipped the mayor's office in Omaha, the state's biggest city.

He successfully tied the GOP incumbent to Trump. She responded by claiming Ewing "stands with radicals" on "boys in girls' bathrooms and sports." It didn't work.

Our full writeup -->

Fresh batch of results in for the Omaha Mayoral Election (this is early vote + good amount of election day vote):

John Ewing (D-aligned)- 55.5%
Jean Stothert (R-aligned) (Inc)- 44.5%

DDHQ already called it and I totally agree. John Ewing has flipped the Omaha Mayor's office!

Decision Desk HQ calling the election results for Omaha Mayor.

Ballgame. Shoutout @janekleeb.bsky.social and @nebraskadems.bsky.social!