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Tyler McClellan

@tylermacro.bsky.social

PM at various macro hedge funds for 20yrs. Always learning, hopefully teaching a bit as well sometimes.

294 Followers  |  302 Following  |  110 Posts  |  Joined: 11.10.2023  |  1.7482

Latest posts by tylermacro.bsky.social on Bluesky

Yes there is

10.01.2025 15:20 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

& then compare it to 2016….

18.12.2024 20:48 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

So everyone’s ok with the hawkishness over here?

:)

18.12.2024 20:42 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

Difference is we can’t explain what these companies do

Also Tesla has risen enough to be in now

17.12.2024 10:35 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

The bubble is in the real economy

17.12.2024 08:42 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Why describing Germany as β€œthe sick man of Europe” is wrong β€” in two charts: employment (rate) has never been higher, it is one of the highest in Europe and has increased more quickly than most over the past 15 years.

www.ft.com/content/9ae3...

16.12.2024 07:57 β€” πŸ‘ 196    πŸ” 57    πŸ’¬ 5    πŸ“Œ 4

#ttf

Most benign weather set up I’ve seen in some time

Much above avg temps in US Europe & N Asia over the next few weeks

16.12.2024 07:24 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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How big are the Chinese banks now? A 1 trillion RMB capital infection -- the largest since the post 1998 recaps -- is only 0.5% of assets

What's bizarre about the banks is that they insist on paying 30% of Net Income as dividends to minority shareholders despite being capital constrained

15.12.2024 03:51 β€” πŸ‘ 10    πŸ” 2    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

That’s incredibly impressive per capita growth…

11.12.2024 22:26 β€” πŸ‘ 4    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Chinese yield curve is a sight to behold when you realize all their biggest companies are banks

10.12.2024 08:24 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
Chart of the NFIB's small business optimism series for the past 20 years

Chart of the NFIB's small business optimism series for the past 20 years

You're not going to believe this but small businesses think everything is rosy now when they didn't last month.

10.12.2024 11:02 β€” πŸ‘ 528    πŸ” 69    πŸ’¬ 26    πŸ“Œ 23

How is it weird, look at these machines in our hands

10.12.2024 09:18 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

Chinese yield curve is a sight to behold when you realize all their biggest companies are banks

10.12.2024 08:24 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

#ttf

The YoY comparisons in LNG send out are going to go positive v soon & then stay that way for months…

10.12.2024 07:28 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Strange…

09.12.2024 10:44 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Is ETS2 just entirely an add-on to existing carbon taxes in those areas of the economy?

Or is there supposed to be some true-up whereby direct double taxation is eliminated?

09.12.2024 10:32 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

There’s something odd in the change in monetary policy stance coming so late when by conventional measures the monetary policy stance has already been loosened dramatically

Puzzling

09.12.2024 10:09 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

#ttf

I believe in the new LNG era, the entire northern hemisphere is an integrated system

Since I do not believe it’s possible to have a cold winter across the whole hemisphere any longer; I do not believe we can ever run low on storage

Doesn’t mean we can’t have temporary price spikes though

27.11.2024 08:22 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Affordability measured how

05.12.2024 11:20 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

How?

05.12.2024 10:21 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

You can’t run a retirement fund (the U.S. government) on 17% of GDP in revenue

05.12.2024 10:10 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
Preview
Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages

With,

data.bls.gov/cew/apps/tab...

05.12.2024 09:55 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Compare

www.bea.gov/sites/defaul...

05.12.2024 09:54 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 0

The β€œGreat Depression” in parts of Europe post GFC is the single most deceptive narrative I’ve come across (in reading or living) & yet it’s right there in the data

Strangely underexplored

02.12.2024 12:49 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

What other uses?

29.11.2024 10:40 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
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Late night mise en place ( a la americane)

27.11.2024 20:00 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Headline.

27.11.2024 19:56 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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It’s like thanksgiving, but in France

27.11.2024 19:44 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Wah wah

Wage and salary was revised down substantially as I expected

#numbersday

27.11.2024 13:38 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Let’s make sure to look at he revisions to nominal income today

#numbersday

27.11.2024 11:42 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

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