David Dunning

The Railway, Édouard Manet, 1873
(been going on for a very long time)

Good night, and good luck.

Edward T. Blake, 80, Dies; Forensic Expert Sparked Innocence Movement

His use of PCR sparked a movement that has freed thousands of wrongfully convicted people. Dr. Blake’s testing alone helped to exonerate more than 50, including several sentenced to death. www.nytimes.com/2025/10/01/s...

More guns than people…

Is it freedom or a national death cult that keeps growing?

CUBAN: “.. Rich people are doing better. They’re buying everything .. You raise my prices 15% to cover the tariffs? Pffft, not gonna change MY life.

“.. But if you’re a farmer .. if you’re just working your day-to-day job, .. you’re getting toasted.”

@thetnholler.bsky.social @mcuban.bsky.social

Massive tone shift in the Portlandia reboot.

Bar chart showing the demographic profiles and party identification of regular social media news consumers in the U.S. on Facebook, YouTube, Instagram, TikTok, X (Twitter) and Reddit

Who consumes news on each social media site? 📱🗞️ The people who regularly get news on different social media sites often differ by gender, age and other factors. 🧵👇

Dive deeper: www.pewresearch.org/...

An astonishing film.

Amazing to believe they were pulling the story and casting together while filming it. But, then again, some of the best music is jazz.

Is Overconfidence Avoidable? New research examines overconfidence among tournament chess players to investigate if it is prevalent in an environment that should discourage it.

Overconfidence (and Dunning-Kruger) in chess-players, who typically rate themselves 89 points higher than their ELO rating.

“If I was matched against someone [like that], I would not feel good about that match,” Heck said.

www.psychologicalscience.org/news/2025-se...

Maybe not ha ha funny.

For the record, ER contains 9 chords.

A response that greatly summarizes my sentiments toward all those committees that summarize the worth of one's scientific work via # of pubs and h-statistics...

The direct question on Quora, though, is "Why is Eleanor Rigby (a 2 chord song, 4 at most) considered a great song?"

I'm not making this up.

LLMs always will. Says the math.

Choose whichever angle you wish.

It still looks pretty.

At the end of this week, a change of pace.

For each of us, a New World.

Psychology of overcommitment.

And on the era we are now passing through, note that it seems to be happening upon the passing of the last of the Greatest Generation.

Minsky's theory of financial instability...applied to public health.

bsky.app/profile/tank...

No notes.

No need for comedy material at this time.

All true, but I wonder about flipping the script and asking why non-college life is now increasingly so unrewarding.

Instrumental Variable Estimation.

(Instructors, take note.)

After a 14 year journey, Eberechi Eze returns to play for his childhood club.

The stories that sport gives us.

Word.

Always thought it would be a great idea to run a conference where people gave talks in the form of a poetry slam, something like the old Def Poetry Slam show on HBO.

Like to know who had skills.

Those limitations used to be vested in the voters of that governor's state, but I am not sure they exercise their authority all that much any more. Or perhaps I'm the one not paying attention.

More and more, everyday, my main reaction is...

I'm fascinated by those times when the implications of people's behavior just "goes over their head."

Always wanted to do research on it, but too easy to do mere demonstrations of it and need to identify the useful and informative story that would make the effort worthwhile and not just comedy.

Flight to Safety.