Robert Hoskins

Week26 on the #SubPollSeries and I think we can confirm that we are looking at the Reform vote in Scotland on the way back down.

Labour have taken back 2nd place in Scotland as they and the SNP have benefitted from the collapse of the Tories and fall of Reform.

The media are missing this change.

Agree completely with this. This defeat is on him and no one else. As you quite rightly point out, where is the SNP post mortem defeat narrative?

Nigel Farage: Reform UK want to make it easier for people to have children Reform leader backs lifting the two-child benefit cap and introducing more generous tax breaks for married people.

Farage has largely captured the electorate receptive to right-populism, and has correctly calculated that the fertile ground for further expansion of the Reform vote is left-populism.

He's seeking to bridge two populist agendas driven by the same underlying anger.

Farage claimed in his speech today that he would raise £65 *billion* by cutting climate policies, DEI schemes, and ‘Quangos’.

He’s not running a serious operation and every political journalist in the country has a public duty to shout that from the rooftops

❗️Apparently, Ukraine will receive Taurus missiles.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz Merz said that Germany, France, Great Britain and the United States have lifted range restrictions on military supplies to Ukraine - Kyiv can attack positions throughout Russia with long-range weapons.

Tuning into Scotland’s Voice with Sub-Polls Sub-samples from polls have been misunderstood for years. Afterall what credibility can anyone lend to a 100-person Scottish subsample from ...

rwbblog.blogspot.com/2025/05/tuni...

Why the #SubPollSeries is as good as any Scotland wide poll.

❗️🇩🇪German intelligence agency classifies far-right Alternative for Germany party as extremist — Reuters

Germany's domestic intelligence agency on Friday classified the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) as an extremist organization that threatens democracy,

2 X 🌹🚩👍

Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, is boasting on the front page of The Wall Street Journal that, “Ukraine will not legally recognize the occupation of Crimea. There’s nothing to talk about here.” This statement is very harmful to the Peace Negotiations with Russia in that Crimea was lost years ago under the auspices of President Barack Hussein Obama, and is not even a point of discussion. Nobody is asking Zelenskyy to recognize Crimea as Russian Territory but, if he wants Crimea, why didn’t they fight for it eleven years ago when it was handed over to Russia without a shot being fired? The area also houses, for many years before “the Obama handover,” major Russian submarine bases. It’s inflammatory statements like Zelenskyy’s that makes it so difficult to settle this War. He has nothing to boast about! The situation for Ukraine is dire — He can have Peace or, he can fight for another three years before losing the whole Country. I have nothing to do with Russia, but have much to do with wanting to save, on average, five thousand Russian and Ukrainian soldiers a week, who are dying for no reason whatsoever. The statement made by Zelenskyy today will do nothing but prolong the “killing field,” and nobody wants that! We are very close to a Deal, but the man with “no cards to play” should now, finally, GET IT DONE. I look forward to being able to help Ukraine, and Russia, get out of this Complete and Total MESS

And there it is. Trump comes out in favor of codifying Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea and blames Zelenskyy for Putin’s aggression.

Russian Ammo Depot Close to Moscow up in Flames Ammo depot in Vladimir Oblast Russian ammo depot near Barsovo, Vladimir region, is detonating following reports on social media that that the road to Kirzhach from the direction of Moscow has been blo...

One of Russia's largest arms depots has left the building.

kyivinsider.com/russian-ammo...

Is Scottish independence inevitable? The relationship between birth cohort and secessionism in Scotland. At the heart of the debate over the relationship between age and support for Scotland seceding from the United Kingdom is a key question: do Scots become less likely to support secession as they age, ...

Ive been working overnight on the paper "The relationship between birth cohort and secessionism in Scotland."

www.centreonconstitutionalchange.ac.uk/is-scottish-...

The one that was splashed across the National overnight. There are a few problems with the analysis, which I can go into later. BUT..

Some good points in here. One thing I would add: the upper echelons of the SNP are filled with people whose political opinions were formed when they were teenagers, and have remained fixed ever since. They assume that everyone else is like that too, which is a grave error.

Well now.

Having looked further at the FON sub polling for Scotland against the full #SubPollSeries I was able to update the data for the latest UK FON poll thus giving a perfect timing alignment.

It shows an 11% bias for indy supporting parties.

A huge exaggeration in Others and Greens.

Latest data on births in Scotland (to Feb this year) shows us continuing to decline badly. We are recording the lowest number of births in Scotland since records began and it's getting worse.

But don't worry because no one wants to talk about it, so it's all good.

Is independence inevitable? Robert Hoskins of Glasgow South CLP examines recent polling and widespread claims about the demographic inevitability of Scottish independence. He is unconvinced. One could be forgiven for thinking…

Hi Neil. I have name checked this in my article
www.labourhame.com/is-independe...

Is independence inevitable? Robert Hoskins of Glasgow South CLP examines recent polling and widespread claims about the demographic inevitability of Scottish independence. He is unconvinced. One could be forgiven for thinking…

Latest article up on Labour Hame
www.labourhame.com/is-independe...

Neil could you comment further on how you calculated your Independence subseries polls from UK polls. Surely these UK polls only calculate support for political parties and not the constitution?

8/ Finally could I make a suggestion for your next article? How about, whatever happened to Labour's Council for the Nations and the Regions?🤔

7/ the demographic time bomb ensures that the Union's future is secure as Scotland’s population is ageing. An estimated 20.3% were aged 65 and over in 2023, an increase from 16.1% in 2003. In marked contrast, an estimated 16.3% were aged 0 to 15 years in 2023, a decrease from 18.7% in 2003.

6/ question as they age. Combine this with the fact that the elderly are more likely to vote than the younger population and most importantly of all, the fact that National Records of Scotland www.nrscotland.gov.uk/publications... demonstrate that

5/ Firstly a YouGuv poll x.com/scotfax/stat...
showed that 0nly 7 out of 10, 2014 Yes supporters still support independence. Whereas 8 out of 10 No voters still support remaining in the UK. This would appear to suggest that No voters are less likely to change their minds on the constitutional

4/ You conclude ''The problem for unionists is that majority support for independence is probably the future,'' citing a YouGuv poll suggesting that every age group under 50 supports Independence to support your point. IMHO your conclusion is wrong for 3 reasons.

3/ would suggest that this poll very much IS an outlier. Especially when you consider Neil Lovatt's excellent subsample series which shows quite clearly that support for Independence since the GE has flat lined at less than 40% bsky.app/profile/neil...

2/ ''might prove to be an outlier but, if not''. A glance at Wikipedia en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion...
proves that FON have never ever produced a poll which demonstrates a majority supporting remaining in the UK. That combined with it being the ''go to'' polling co for The National & Alba.

1/ I don't wish to criticise Stephen as I am a great admirer of your work on the constitution - but I think this article falls well below your high standards for the following reasons ...

Your article is predicated on the assumption that the research company Find out Now (FON) whose poll you quote

OK you lovely people it's #SubPollSeries for Week 15.

With Reform flat and the SNP and Labour both falling backwards it's the Liberal Democrats (remember them) that seem to be benefitting. This is leading to another tightening of the race for second place.

Indyref voting is flat, flat, flat.

The mistake will not have been made by the internal or external markers. Whoever calibrated the weighting into the computer when the results were entered imho has questions to answer.

The sheer extent of the errors, involving hundreds of Doctors, suggests to me that it must have been a computing error. For example, where 2 exam questions are combined to give a mark of 100% with one weighted say at 60% and the other question at 40%.

I've been through this on the marking side with nurses. With one nurse 'failing' when it was crystal clear she had passed. Sorted within 24 hours.

It beggars belief the extent of this appalling cockup and how it wasn't discovered straight away

That is truly horrendous. Incredible that it took two year to discover ...