Deye Li

I’m quite surprised to see Roger Myerson in the assembly

Also Achen and Bartel’s Realist Theory of Democracy

A lot of these are coming from The Lobby

But regime change is Bibi’s goal. And the US entanglement sure would also facilitate it. Plus, you don’t need to get to the Iraq outcome, a Pakistani outcome is gonna be bad enough.

But if we turn Iran into Iraq after 2003, all leashes will be gone. A melee between/involving its regional proxies will be “worse than a monolith” for the West in Christensen’s word.

Iran has been trying to destabilize the region even without nukes. It surely will continue to do so with nukes. But Tehran would have a strong interest to have its regional proxies on a leash. It needs to worry about the external feedback on its internal stability as well.

The Chinese regime was thought to be implacably revolutionary in the 60s. Once they got the bomb, they did not act more aggressively in international politics than other nuclear powers.

Security dilemma: leaders often don’t use and don’t understand

Commitment problem: leaders often don’t use but understand

Deterrence: leaders often use but don’t understand

It seems that Trump has personally pronounced the death of “liberal delusion” and “blob” explanations of U.S. regime change wars in ME.

Gotta write on Breitbart then.

Tell “stopping water of distance” to historical French rulers trying to invade Britain.

But here’s the deal, amphibious op is the second most difficult kind of mil op on earth only after nuclear damage limitation. That’s what gives water stopping power.

Correction: Projecting (land forces) via water

You can project mere firepower but it’s coercive effectiveness is no match to mil occupation.

Ironically this could work with migrant workers. Alas, the same responders also don’t want them.

I think OR would not be applicable to 2014 since Mearsheimer considered that under unipolarity. But OR should certainly be applied to 2022 since Mearsheimer recognized that unipolarity ended in 2017.

I agree with you on the complex system point. That’s good.

By your account, for war to become a dominant feature in a country’s life, it needs to take on half of the system at the same time, no? That’s how you increase warring dyad years

Waltz 1988 made this point loud and clear

Kirshner and katzenstein’s 2022 book

To be fair, “the Old IPE” had very different priorities vs. “the New IPE”

Probably also Germany itself, with its anti-Slav policy in a war against the USSR

However, 3 contradicts how defensive realism defines the military policy of unilateral restraint: reducing its military capability below the level that it believes would otherwise be necessary for adequate deterrence and defense (Glaser, 2010, p. 67).

@frankfukuyama.bsky.social is this the end of history?