Frans Osinga

The International Order Is Not Dead Yet But it’s on a lifeline, becoming less liberal, and will only survive if we work hard to reform and renew it

My latest:

The International Order Is Not Dead Yet
open.substack.com/pub/michaelm...

The Trump administration's “war on empathy,” Hillary Rodham Clinton writes, “threatens to pave the way for an extreme vision of Christian nationalism that seeks to replace democracy with theocracy in America”: theatln.tc/IGpDxpIf

Wat hebben wij Europeanen ermee te maken dat Oekraïners bevriezen omdat Russen hun energie-infrastructuur hebben kapotgeschoten? Nou, veel.

Opinion | The real ‘civilizational erasure’ is happening in America Trump’s expansion of state power undermines the West’s core achievement: limits on authority.

Fareed Zakaria: The West’s defining character has not been tribal or religious solidarity… The West’s precious, almost unique, achievement has been the limitation of state power… The second Trump administration has moved sharply to erode these traditions. www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...

The new Dutch coalition parties pledge to raise defense expenditure to 2.8% of GDP in 2030 and 3.5% (NATO requirement) in 2035. Military support to Ukraine from 2027 through 2029: €3 billion ($3.56) annually.

🇺🇸🇺🇦🇧🇪 The US Department of Defense has awarded a contract to maintain F-16 fighter jets transferred to Ukraine, - Militarnyi

The contract worth $235,449,716 was awarded to the Belgian company Sabena Aerospace Engineering.

Een Europa dat zichzelf kan verdedigen, is lang niet zo ver weg als het soms lijkt Na de Groenlandcrisis vragen militaire planners zich meer dan ooit af: kunnen we eventueel zonder Amerika de Russen tegenhouden? Experts zeggen dat de meest pragmatische weg naar meer Europese zelfred...

De snelste weg naar meer Europese zelfredzaamheid loopt via de Navo
www.volkskrant.nl/buitenland/e...

@admiralstav.bsky.social chips in on the discussion of whether Europe can defend itself. He does not agree with Mark Rutte.

🇺🇸🇮🇱🇸🇦🇮🇷 Senior defense and intelligence officials from Israel and Saudi Arabia are in Washington, D.C., meeting with U.S. leaders, - Axios

The Israeli delegation is sharing intelligence on potential targets, while Saudi officials are pushing to avoid a broader war and promote diplomacy.

Trump Warns Iran With Military Muscle, but Risks a Regional War

Trump Warns Iran With Military Muscle, but Risks a Regional War www.nytimes.com/2026/01/29/w...

Trump Is Still Obsessed with Stealing Elections The FBI’s seizure of Georgia ballots is as much about future elections as past ones.

"It’s possible that now, unlike in 2020, we no longer live in a world where the actual truth or falsehood of such claims actually matters. 'It does not even matter if what you are saying is the right thing. If our president wants to bring in the forces, he will.'"

open.substack.com/pub/thebulwa...

yep

Hoe Oekraïne met onze hulp de mobilisatiecrisis kan bezweren Partner van Instituut Clingendael en Universiteit Leiden

Europese partners zouden binnen het zogeheten SkyShield-initiatief gevechtsvliegtuigen moeten inzetten boven West- en Centraal-Oekraïne.

@platformraam
platformraam.nl/artikelen/29...

What Europe certainly does not need right now is a flaring up of institutional competition.

reduce the dependency on US capabilities. (5) The US, per its latest NSS really favors Europe to do precisely that and a more European NATO is actually a good idea. And a European Security Council too. Rutte however is also right in turn to warn against duplication.

Putin's belief Europe is paralised without the US which might fuel his desire to start a serious provocation into one of Eastern European member states (4) Europe is in fact in de midst of massive military investments as was agreed upon in the NATO summit in The Hague, because of Russia and to

Criticism is also warranted: (1) if employed collectively European countries could potentially muster a very sizable force, certainly landforces. (2) by stressing dependency on US Rutte provides Trump fodder for critique on Europe and suggests he has coercive leverage on Europe (3) it reinforces

Rutte was right: currently Europe will struggle to mount a credible deterrence strategy or defend itself when deterrence fails. Europe is still too dependent on US strategic enablers (air defence, long range strike, SEAD, EW, AAR etc), leadership and its nuclear deterrent. However....

Opinion | Trump’s Board of Peace is already floundering Trump’s attempt to rival the U.N., with him in charge, is likely to disappear and be quickly forgotten.

All power is concentrated in the hands of the chairman. Barring a health crisis, Trump can run the Board of Peace as long as he likes, and he is empowered to choose his own successor. This is a model closer to the Trump Org than to the collective leadership of the UN or NATO. wapo.st/46dUKAF

France has snapped back at NATO chief Mark Rutte in a feud over Europe’s defense muscle.

🔗 www.politico.eu/article/fran...

A drawing of Alex Pretti carrying an old person wrapped in an American flag. He is saying - ‘Don’t worry. I’ve got you.’

If this doesn’t tug at your heart, make you well up with sadness, you are not human.

Deze week oefenen gevechtsvliegtuigen op Schiphol: voor het geval dat een crisis of conflict uitbreekt F-35's oefenen op Schiphol terwijl het reguliere luchtverkeer gewoon doorgaat. Majoor Martijn Pijnenburg over de logistieke puzzel van een crisisscenario.

Op Schiphol oefenen de komende dagen militairen en burgers samen. Luchtmachtplanner majoor Martijn Pijnenburg begon een jaar geleden de logistieke puzzel te leggen.

buff.ly/0SzSd85

The United States has signaled to Kyiv that it is ready to discuss security guarantees only if Ukraine agrees to give up part of the Donbas, the Financial Times reports. According to the report, the message was conveyed as part of broader discussions on possible future arrangements.

Current US buildup

Prime Minister Frederiksen:

We have been able to take a very important decision within the European Union - to phase out fossil fuels from Russia.

All Europeans can see now that it was a huge mistake to be dependent on Russian fossil fuels. We should never have done that.

These are the indicative estimates of Russia’s combat losses as of Jan. 26, according to the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Opinion | This Theory Explains Trump’s Baffling Foreign Policy

www.nytimes.com/2026/01/26/o...

‼️ High risk of US attack on Iran in the next 24 hours. Iran has already closed its airspace to UAVs and private planes.

Yes, It’s Fascism Until recently, I thought it a term best avoided. But now, the resemblances are too many and too strong to deny.

"Recent events have brought Trump’s governing style into sharper focus," Jonathan Rauch argues. "'Fascist' best describes it, and reluctance to use the term has now become perverse."

Statement from Obama 👀🇺🇸