Tom Lancaster

OBR: Net-zero is much cheaper than thought for UK – and unchecked global warming far more costly - Carbon Brief Reaching net-zero will be much cheaper for the UK government than previously expected – and the economic damages of climate change far more severe.

There are some TRULY idiotic "I hate net-zero" takes on yday's OBR report, which set out long-term risks to govt finances

It's right there in the report, but to repeat, OBR makes it crystal clear that climate action will be far less costly than inaction

www.carbonbrief.org/...

☀️It’s been an exceptionally sunny & dry spring – what role is climate change playing?

Dr Clair Barnes, an Imperial College climate scientist, explains the shifts in spring weather.

And Colin Chappell, a farmer, lays out how these changes are impacting UK agriculture.

Yesterday, Ross Clark claimed in the @thespectator1828.bsky.social

"The likely fall in the energy price cap will be purely a reaction to lower wholesale prices on international markets... it is simply markets at work"

Is this the same Ross Clark who blames "net zero" every time bills go up? 🧵😂

These are foods mentioned in this article, but many more everyday food items from broccoli 🥦 to bananas 🍌 are becoming more costly. Extreme weather conditions in the UK and globally are threatening food production and causing price spikes. This is a crucial part of the story!

Low UK potato harvests raise fears about Christmas supplies Experts say supermarkets may have to rely on imports from as far afield as Egypt, pushing up environmental impact

3️⃣: 🥔

Potatoes can be grown in the UK, provided we have suitable growing conditions. Relentless wet weather in 2023 (made worse by climate change) delayed harvesting, caused crops to rot and led to a shortage before Christmas. Prices have since shot up.

www.theguardian.com/food/2023/de...

Coffee prices hit new highs over fears of global shortages Unseasonable weather in Vietnam and Brazil is causing coffee prices to hike

2️⃣: ☕

Coffee is also in the midst of a spike in price. This has been exacerbated by extreme temperatures and erratic rainfall in producer countries like Brazil 🇧🇷 and Vietnam 🇻🇳

www.thegrocer.co.uk/kvi-price-tr...

Climate impacts on cocoa Average price per kilo of cocoa beans imported into the UK has risen 32% over the last three years.

1️⃣: 🍫

Ivory Coast 🇨🇮 is the UK's top supplier of cocoa, totalling 84% of our imports. It's been pummelled by climate impacts recently - extreme rainfall in 2023, drought in early 2024 & a humid heatwave shortly after, all made worse by climate change.

eciu.net/analysis/rep...

Interesting @theipaper.com story highlighting claims by the Food & Drink Federation that higher NI contributions and new food packaging levies are increasing prices.

But here's something they don't mention... what about climate change? 🧵 inews.co.uk/news/politic...

The deal apparently includes 13,000 tonnes in tariff free beef access to the US for UK farmers, and 13,000 tonnes in tariff free beef access to the UK for US farmers.

No one's standards change.

By way of context the tariff free quota Australian beef gets into the US is 448,214 tonnes per annum.

A sound long gone from British villages & gardens - a singing Wryneck. There’s Pied Flycatchers, Redstarts, Hawfinches, Tree Sparrows and Swallows around this garden too. It’s like going back in time, challenging the shifting baseline and reminding how much birds have declined in Britain.

UK actual and anomaly maps Maps of climate variables for previous months, seasons and years

Maps from here

www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/cli...

And the Sep one from here (it was off the standard scale…)

www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/new...

This is what farming with climate change looks like

After the second worst harvest on record in 2024, farmers in England have had record breaking rain in September, followed very little rain and record breaking sun & heat in March & April

Good for berries I guess, less good for lots of others!

FACTCHECK: Almost all the headlines on Tony Blair / net-zero are *wildly* inaccurate

REALITY:

1️⃣Net-zero is *only way* to stop warming
2️⃣Blair calls for tech to "turbocharge our path to net-zero"
3️⃣He categorically *does not* say "net-zero is doomed to fail"

🧵
1/6

Thousands more people could die from overheating each year if Britain does not adapt to a warming world to avert
“tomorrow’s disasters”, the UK government’s climate advisers have warned.

@thecccuk.bsky.social says no sign Labour are taking climate adaptation more seriously than Tories

Getting to know 'Reform curious Labour voters' exploring the attitudes, demography and values of Reform curious Labour voters and the coalitional dilemmas they lose

NEW: Who are the voters Labour risks losing to Reform?

How might Lab unite them with the rest of its election winning coalition? How might Reform win them over?

Some big new research out today with @persuasionuk.bsky.social as featured by @greenmirandahere.bsky.social in today's FT 🧵👇

A considerable amount of the Northern hemisphere's landmass has already warmed more than 2C since the industrial era. The cold blob in the North Atlantic is a telltale sign of a weakening AMOC current.

Visual by @edhawkins.org

Great thread this

If I was Prime Minister for the day and wanted people to feel a material improvement to their day-to-day, I’d throw what money I had at local government

And not just at pot holes, but at stuff like the services that get drinkers and addicts off the streets

Solar panel push still won’t cover as much land as golf courses A study shows that Ed Miliband’s 2030 green energy targets are set to require up to 0.4 per cent of the UK, compared with 0.06 per cent today

ICYM

Solar panel push still won’t cover as much land as golf courses, even if the UK government's 2030 solar power goals are met

www.thetimes.com/uk/environme...

This is an, ahem, interesting piece from Jawad Iqbal in today's Times: "Miliband has in the past boasted about the previous Labour government’s decision to phase out coal power… Miliband claimed other countries would follow “our example”. Really? It seems highly unlikely."

Here’s why he's wrong 🧵

Very important point. It's not green energy that is making UK electricity expensive: it's mostly gas

I've just caught up with Nick Robinson's interview with James Murray MP on #r4today. 1) Green energy isn't driving energy prices up. As Murray said, our high energy costs are down to reliance on foreign gas. We need *more* home grown renewables! Robinson seems keen to reopen UK coalmines... 1/

🚨Some major errors & misleading claims from experienced presenter Nick Robinson on BBC Radio 4 Today, when discussing British Steel with Treasury Minister James Murray

I hope these are corrected on tomorrow's programme, and Robinson sticks to the facts in future.

Here's what he got wrong... 🧵

This is really important for everyone to be aware when out & about in the British countryside. 15 years ago I rarely had ticks on me during fieldwork. Nowadays I have several every time I'm in the same woods. Ticks can & do cause life-changing health problems.

Big, biodiverse and beautiful: can Romania’s centuries-old giant haystacks survive modern farming? Traditional methods benefit hundreds of species but as new agricultural techniques take over, the distinctive haystacks mark a vanishing way of life

Would be sad if these went. Only been to Romania once but these haystacks across the landscape were one of the things that made the place special & different

As this story points out, they're also important habitats for fauna and flora

www.theguardian.com/environment/...

29 years of natural colonisation, woodland expansion. Oaks, hawthorns, blackthorns. This 2 ha of new woodland, all self-sown creates new habitat and future ancient woodland, but also buffers the existing woodland next door from drying winds and agri-spray drift. Win, win, win.

The foods in danger of disappearing from UK supermarket shelves within 10 years EXCLUSIVE: A weekly shop without coffee, chocolate or a joint of meat may seem unthinkable but consumer experts predict our changing climate could remove key products from supermarkets within a…

The foods in danger of disappearing from UK supermarket shelves within 10 years

A weekly shop without coffee, chocolate or a joint of meat may seem unthinkable but consumer experts predict our changing climate could remove key products from supermarkets within a decade.

Political Thinking with Nick Robinson - Bonus: The Rishi Sunak Lessons from Downing Street One - Part 2 - BBC Sounds Part 2 of an exclusive interview with the former PM, reflecting on life in Downing Street

What's remarkable about Nick Robinson's discussion with Rishi Sunak about net zero is not just Sunak's lack of knowledge but that Robinson doesn't ask at all about climate change: do you know anything about it? What would you do about it?
www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/...

But I thought nobody wants heat pumps? And they dOn'T wOrK iN tHe CoLd?

Looks like misinfo isn't slowing growth in UK heat pumps

Good, bc we can't have energy security with the status quo (gas boilers)

& we can't have national security without energy security

Heat pumps = national security

Denmark’s Groundbreaking Agriculture Climate Policy Sets Strong Example for the World Denmark’s Green Tripartite Agreement imposes taxes on livestock, restores forests and peatlands, and pays farmers to reduce pollution.

I briefly interrupt your feed of constant US-based doom and/or gloom to remind you that in other countries, there's some pretty cool stuff happening on the food / agriculture / nature / climate policy front at the national level, and that Denmark recently took a step that could inspire others.

Denmark is  one of the world's largest meat producers, but they are also innovative leaders in decarbonizing food and farming.

Rune-Christoffer Dragsdahl of the Vegetarian Society of Denmark tells @alexisconran.bsky.social how their approach is ‘more carrot, less stick’.