Andrew Flowers

We now have unemployment claims data for all 50 states for the week ending 10/25. Still no sign of a big uptick in initial claims. (Note that these charts do NOT include federal workers -- see down thread for those.) #NumbersDay #EconSky

www.nytimes.com/2025/10/03/b...

Flying Blind: Navigating Data Gaps During A Shutdown Feeling lost without jobs day data? Andrew Flowers and Julius Probst, PhD wrote a guide to help you fill the gaps.

recruitonomics.com/flying-blind...

Because of the government shutdown, there is no jobs day data. And if the shutdown persists, no CPI, no GDP, etc. So
my colleague Julius Probst and I wrote a guide for how policymakers and economists, as well as HR and recruiting leaders, can navigate this economy while "flying blind."

Why the B.L.S. Regularly Revises Jobs Data

Data revisions are a normal, necessary part of trying to measure a $30 trillion economy in real time. They can also be jarring, especially for people who don't obsessively scrutinize every jobs report.
So I dug into the how and why of revisions. A few big takeaways:
#EconSky

US population growth is slowing, more volatile, and harder to estimate than it used to be, mostly due to immigration swings and also population aging.

That will weaken economic growth -- and will make economic statistics less accurate and more prone to revisions.

www.piie.com/publications...

The Consumer Electronics Hall of Fame: Fujitsu Plasma TV Flat-screen TVs were a sci-fi staple until Fujitsu made them real

spectrum.ieee.org/the-consumer...

In 1997, Fujitsu released the first commercial flat-screen TV for consumers, a 42-inch plasma TV.

It was priced around $17,500 to $20,000.

Trump Policies' Chilling Effect on Immigration, and What it Means for the Labor Market - Recruitonomics The Trump administration's dramatic immigration policies will shake up the labor market, but perhaps not in the way people suspect.

Link: recruitonomics.com/trump-polici...

Check out this first of a four-part series on Recruitonomics covering the impact of the Trump administration's immigration policies on the labor market. Julius Probst estimates an annual decline in the U.S. labor force between 640k to 960k.

Meanwhile, back at home: Trump's Big Beautiful Bill will make the poor poorer and the rich richer. Regressivity is even worse if you layer on Trump's tariffs.
www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...

Summer Hiring Heats Up, Featuring Some Uncertainty for Recruiters The summer hiring season is officially here, but recruiters are facing a complex season due to uncertain consumer behavior.

Full analysis on Recruitonomics: recruitonomics.com/summer-hirin...

Hotel hiring is a mixed bag. And restaurants are still playing catch-up on hiring. Read @samrkuhn.bsky.social on how summer hiring is heating up, with recruiters facing both labor shortages and softer consumer spending.

@budgetlab.bsky.social tariff update through June 16, incorporating:

• Broader scope for the 50% steel & aluminum tariffs to include some steel-derivative products.

• Relaxation of Chinese export restrictions on magnets & rate minerals.

• New distributional methodology.

1/9

Line chart titled ‘Weekly Runs of RStudio IDE’ showing usage data from 2023 to 2025. The y-axis ranges from 2,000,000 to 6,000,000 weekly runs. The chart displays a cyclical pattern with regular peaks around 5,000,000-6,000,000 runs and dramatic drops to approximately 2,000,000 runs that occur periodically during holiday periods.

Is #rstats dead? I don’t think so.

EXTREMELY BAD NEWS for economic research, per former BLS Commissioner @ericagroshen.bsky.social on LinkedIn.

BLS is suspending access to its restricted data "for the forseeable future." Applies to projects through the Federal Statistical Research Data Centers & onsite projects with BLS.
#EconSky

Job Growth is Treading Water Employment growth has slowed to the weakest level in more than 13 years

Full analysis on Recruitonomics: recruitonomics.com/job-growth-i...

The U.S. added 139k jobs in May, which on its face isn’t bad. However, the average monthly job gains over the past year have slowed to about 144,000, which is the lowest level since late 2011 (excluding the sharp pandemic-era drop). So, the labor market is treading water.

A larger share of Canadian households fear they may lose their job in the next 12 months than compared to the peak of the pandemic

🇨🇦 Canada's upcoming election coincides with a pivotal economic moment. @samrkuhn.bsky.social covers the state of the Canadian economy, and labor market in particular: recruitonomics.com/a-pivotal-mo...

Is this the Calm Before the Tariff Storm? | Recruitonomics The labor market had an impressive month in March, but the freshly announced tariffs take center stage this week.

Full analysis here: recruitonomics.com/is-this-the-...

Transportation & warehousing added ~23k jobs in March, the fifth month in a row of strong performance. Couriers and messengers—workers who deliver parcels across cities and states—alone added 15,800 new jobs in March. On the surface, this is great, but underneath it smells like a tariff effect.

Thus, this March jobs report is the last reading of the U.S. labor market before this tsunami of trade changes takes effect. Stock markets have turned sharply negative since the announcement and recession worries are mounting.

On Wednesday, President Trump issued a sweeping increase of tariffs, dubbed “Liberation Day,” that will bring the average U.S. tariff rate to the highest point in more than a century. April 2, 2025, may go down as a “before and after” date in economic history.

The March jobs report was calm on the surface, but it is an unfulfilling bright spot in a new economic storm. The truth is this report won’t go down as the biggest jobs story this week.

Tariffs Could Sink an Economy Held Aloft by the Labor Market The U.S. economy has largely withstood inflation and high interest rates. But tariffs could bring new price increases and put a damper on hiring.

The job market has been resilient. The trade war could be its undoing

"You can almost think of the labor market as a rock in the ocean getting battered and getting weathered by all the other things going on in the economy"

www.nytimes.com/2025/04/03/b... @nytimes.com w/ @bencasselman.bsky.social

One of the most memorable news events, where a policy announcement made the stock market tank in such a direct way.

I've seen other press conferences/speeches where the market tanked, but it was always in the context of an ongoing crisis where the response looked insufficient.

an ad at a bus stop that says “tariffs are a tax on your grocery bill. paid for by the government of Canada.”

paid for by the government of canada! incredible stuff

UPDATE: The Commerce Department has terminated the Federal Economic Statistics Advisory Committee (FESAC) and several other outside committees that advised the statistical agencies. #EconSky