Carl Parker

Lake Allatoona, north of Atlanta, GA

9am EDT Tuesday update from NHC on #Melissa: "An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has found that Melissa is strengthening with maximum sustained winds of 180 mph (290 km/h). Estimated minimum central pressure based on aircraft data has fallen to 896 mb (26.47 inches)." www.nhc.noaa.gov

Melissa, among the strongest hurricanes on record in the Atlantic at 901 mb, closing in on Jamaica.

Sadly there is not

Heartbreaking visible image of a potentially generational storm, and a likely reflection of broader trends—greater ocean warmth and depth of warmth, faster intensification rates, slower forward speeds, and greater rainfall rates.

Time series of monthly Northern Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature anomalies from 1850 to August 2025 alongside multi-model expectations of the warming in this area (scenario SSP2-4.5).

The Northern Pacific Ocean is currently smashing temperature records.

And it is reaching these levels far earlier than the current generation of climate models had expected.

A short thread 🧵

SUBSTORM NOW THIS IS CURRENTLY FROM CENTRAL WI

View Hege Skryseth’s graphic link Hege SkrysethHege Skryseth • FollowingFollowing Executive Vice President at Equinor | Shaping the future of energy supplies and achieving carbon net zeroExecutive Vice President at Equinor | Shaping the future of energy supplies and achieving carbon net zero 2h • 2 hours ago • Visible to anyone on or off LinkedIn Recently I met with the Board of Equinor to present how technology is innovating the way we work and how it could solve hurdles we are facing. I started by showing this picture. Wells at the Troll field in the North Sea compares to the size of Bergen and Stavanger (here showing only Bergen). When Troll was discovered in 1979 there were no technology available to bring the gas to shore. There where issues to solve, like water depths to conquer, the Norwegian Trench to cross. And the thin layer of oil on top of the reservoir needed a solution. The result? Equinor and partners built the largest manmade object ever to be moved, developed horizontal drilling to penetrate the thin oil layers, and built an extensive network of pipelines and gas processing capability to provide reliable gas to Europe. The key to success has been development of technology, with record-long wells and advanced downhole equipment, together with a strong focus on standardisation and visualization of data. As Europe’s largest energy supplier, Equinor is aiming to maintain the production at the Norwegian Continental Shelf (NCS) at today’s levels also in 2035, targeting 1.2 million barrels of oil equivalents per day. Yet here is our new reality: To maintain production on the NCS and meet global

Inadvertently, this is an incredible illustration of how

(a) the infrastructure required for fossil fuel extraction is bonkers and

(b) how we don't consider our oil and gas to be 'destroying nature' like wind turbines simply bc it's undersea

Healthy aurora glow starting now in Maine. Check out the cam! go.theauroraguy.com/webcams

St. Helena Island, SC last night

Massive, violent tornado on Brandon Copic's livestream near Lake City AR. Holy crap.

A rotational velocity signature of 113 kt and a deep tornado debris signature indicates this is likely an EF 3+ tornado in progress across northeast Arkansas. 100+ kt rotational velocity signatures are historically in the upper echelons of intense tornadoes.

A vintage photo from the National Archives shows smog hanging over the New York skyline

A vintage photo from the National Archives shows damaged oil drums piled high at an Exxon refinery.

A vintage photo from the National Archives shows cars driving down a road as smoke spews from factories in the distance and air pollution hangs over everything.

A vintage photo from the National Archives shows smog in Los Angeles taken from a high vantage point.

Just thinking about what the US looked like before the EPA existed

After Elon Musk Fired Her, She Kept Showing Up to Work—for Free The billionaire and his followers are out to cull federal employees they think are lazy and overpaid. But without people like Bianca Sicich, the Attwater’s prairie chicken could go extinct.

Yet another dedicated scientist and public servant, this time from US Fish and Wildlife, showing up unpaid after she was fired to volunteer to protect an endangered species.

What are we even doing here.

🎁 link: 🧪

Check out our new Polar Vortex Blog! Though parts of the US have been very cold and snowy, experts do not think there's much evidence that the polar vortex is the main driver of our winter weather so far this year. www.climate.gov/news-feature...

Chart showing global temperature in every January since 1950.

Wow. Last month wasn't just a usual hottest January on record. Despite cool La Niña conditions, it was *even hotter* than last years record-breaking El Niño January!
Graph by @hausfath.bsky.social

Is it hurricane season already?
It's January 26 and the ocean heat content in the Caribbean Sea is presently as high as it normally would be on June 1.
🧐🌊
Granted, the climatological annual minimum is still 6 weeks away so it *should* fall a bit more. We'll see.
bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/tropics/ohc/

Influence of high-latitude blocking and the northern stratospheric polar vortex on cold-air outbreaks under Arctic amplification of global warming - IOPscienceSearch Influence of high-latitude blocking and the northern stratospheric polar vortex on cold-air outbreaks under Arctic amplification of global warming, Hanna, Edward, Francis, Jennifer, Wang, Muyin, Overland, James E, Cohen, Judah, Luo, Dehai, Vihma, Timo, Fu, Qiang, Hall, Richard J, Jaiser, Ralf, Kim, Seong-Joong, Köhler, Raphael, Luu, Linh, Shen, Xiaocen, Erner, Irene, Ukita, Jinro, Yao, Yao, Ye, Kunhui, Choi, Hyesun, Skific, Natasa

Particularly prescient line in recent paper on cold air outbreaks and high-latitude warming:

“Even if CAOs become less frequent and/or less intense overall, their impacts can be more significant as society… becomes increasingly less prepared as CAOs penetrate into regions ill-equipped to respond.”

What did you think of this paper, which connected some polar vortex disruption to North Pacific warming and Arctic sea ice loss? agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....

According to NWS Los Angeles:

“A Particularly Dangerous Situation Red Flag Warning is in effect for the coasts, valleys and mountains in the #SantaAnaWind prone corridor of Los Angeles/Ventura Counties, Monday night into Tuesday.

Red Flag warnings are in effect for portions of SoCal Mon-Wed.”

2024 to be a record year for US solar with 32 GW of installations The US is on track for another record-breaking year for solar, with over 32 gigawatts (GW) of utility-scale installations expected in 2024.

News for the record books: US installed 32GW of solar PV in 2024. 🧪🔌💡☀️💨🔋 electrek.co/2024/11/29/2...

This supercell absolutely made the second day of chasing worth it. Stout little storm coming off the Capitans. #nmwx

IEA chart showing global oil demand from road transport 2010-2035, in which steady growth in the past is projected into the future, but the peak is being shaved off due to demand avoided by EVs

Why the IEA says peak oil* really is coming this time, in one simple chart
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Why have hurricanes gone crazy? a guest post by Kevin Trenberth

On The Climate Brink, a guest post by Kevin Trenberth on "Why have hurricanes gone crazy?"
www.theclimatebrink....

Almost a Cat 5 already 😮 Milton is gathering strength at a breakneck speed, as several intensity models suggested it would. Even if it weakens a bit prior to the FL west coast, it will be pushing an immense and likely catastrophic storm surge.

www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh...

An insidious effect of decades of climate science denialism is that it seeped false info and doubt into the public consciousness. Observed warming is ~100% due to human activity, yet media coverage, poll questions, etc. talk about humans "mostly" causing" or "contributing to" climate change.

Global temperatures have remained persistently high over the past few months despite fading El Nino conditions in the tropical Pacific. We saw records tied or set in May, June, July, and August.

Its only in September 2024 that we are likely to move out of record territory:

Despite today's grim milestone with the world passing 1.5C over the past 12 months, I see some reasons for cautious climate hope.

We stand both on the brink of severe climate impacts, but also on the brink of a rapid energy transition away from fossil fuels.

Wisconsin. February 8th. NOT NORMAL!

(For reference - Wisconsin has *never* had a recorded tornado in February.)

#wiwx

This right here.

As experts like @katharinehayhoe.com and others have pointed out, the knowledge deficit model simply does not work.

COVID, climate change, Jan 6, it doesn't matter.

This should be a foundational piece of knowledge for any academic, advocacy, and journalistic work.