Steve Matthews

Does Fed Chair Powell want to weigh in? The FOMC depends on data from the BLS and any politicizing of it is going to be a problem for monetary policy.

August 1, 2025 AMERICAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION Committee on Economic Statistics and Committee on Government Relations Statement from the American Economic Association on the Dismissal of the BLS Commissioner Leaders of the American Economic Association express their grave concern over the dismissal of the Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) earlier today. The independence of the federal statistical agencies is essential to the proper functioning of a modern economy. Accurate, timely, and impartial statistics are the foundation upon which households, businesses, and policymakers make critical decisions. Undermining the independence or credibility of these agencies threatens the integrity of the information that markets, institutions, and the public rely on every day. Measuring the vast and dynamic U.S. economy in real time is inherently challenging. It is standard practice for statistical estimates to be revised as more complete and higher-quality data become available. These revisions reflect the commitment of statistical agencies to accuracy, transparency, and methodological rigor-not failure or bias. The BLS has long had a well-deserved reputation for professional excellence and nonpartisan integrity. Safeguarding this tradition is vital for the continued health of the U.S. economy and public trust in our institutions. We call upon elected officials to respect and preserve the independence of the nation's statistical infrastructure. Lawrence Katz President, American Economic Association Katharine Abraham President-Elect, American Economic Association Karen Dynan Chair, American Economic Association Committee on Economic Statistics Kenneth Troske Chair, American Economic Association Committee on Government Relations

Statement from the largest economics association about the BLS firing

As context: AEA approximately never makes such public statements

This is a big deal

Lots of focus on tariffs, sure, but the NBER gives heavy weight to the labor market in making its recession calls. And a smaller labor force from negative immigration feeds into reducing consumer spending and overall output and incomes as well, all important factors in calling a downturn.

If we are in or have a near-term recession, you can and should blame Stephen Miller’s mass deportation agenda.

One big reason payrolls have fallen close to zero monthly is because we have shut down immigration, skilled and unskilled, and immigration was a key engine to US growth. With foreign workers added at a pre-2025 rate, the latest jobs report would have looked not bad at all.

This is the second largest 2m revision on record. In general they get larger at cyclical turning points. We take more signal that we are at a cyclical turning point than that there is some data collection conspiracy

Next BLS release: “The Trump economy is strong, stronger than it’s ever been, because of the wise stewardship of our president which is creating prosperity and opportunity across the nation.”

With no guarantee Powell won’t stay on as a governor after losing his chairmanship in May, the Kugler position could be the only opportunity for Trump to appoint a governor in the next year. Ergo, any outsider Trump wanted as chair would need to take the Kugler position —it could be a shadow chair.

Most optimistic take is the Trump administration is so lacking in basic competence that any efforts to lie about the economic data or spin it are going to be pretty evident to most economists and Wall Street.

Whelp there it is:

*TRUMP TO FIRE LABOR STATISTICS CHIEF AFTER WEAK JOBS DATA

Your tweet said Biden “committed genocide,” which is clearly not true. He argued diplomatically to try to restrain Israel—not especially successfully… but clearly he didn’t “commit genocide.” That’s like saying he committed murder, an awful claim to make.

On Twitter and Bluesky, you get rewarded with engagement by attacking Democrats with lies as opposed to the Trump administration, which has taken a much more aggressive approach in the Middle East.

This seems like a targeted attack on journalists.

Hey, please don’t insult Chihuahuas—wonderful dogs.

Political takes on economic statistics are almost always bad, but political takes on GDP are the most insane.

Similar to last week.

The Limits of Sprawl Is Atlanta’s slowdown telling us something?

Really interesting Paul Krugman column on why Atlanta's growth has slowed. In short, housing affordability and traffic. open.substack.com/pub/paulkrug...

Actually Kennedy got us into Vietnam. See The Best and the Brightest by David Halberstam. LBJ made things worse.

JFK’s fans think he would have backed away from Vietnam and of course it’s impossible to know as he was assassinated first.

This says Biden and his folks raised concerns & tried to push Israel to be more responsible. Obviously, people don’t think the policy worked. But it’s incorrect to say Biden didn’t try to use diplomacy.

Why is the left focusing attacks on Biden vs Trump? We’ve gone from diplomacy to cheerleading.

Has Biden or Harris or Biden’s top diplomats and national security team? They are the ones who were responsible for diplomacy.

Nice anti-Biden propaganda. There are zero sources cited in this report.

The leftist attacks on Biden is how we ended up with Trump. How’s that working out?

It’s amazing how much more energy leftists put in attacking Democrats than Republicans. Leftists attacking Hillary got us Trump’s first term and a right-wing Supreme Court for a generation.

Leftists attacking Biden/Harris got us Trump. How is that working out?

Big question next week: Do Chris Waller and Miki Bowman dissent? I would guess so and that nicely would set up a September rate cut.

So you prefer Trump? It’s a binary choice.

There was a 10-point swing among young voters to Trump in the 2024 elections. If the Gaza protests played a role, that doesn’t seem like a productive result.

I think Biden worked with diplomacy to try to prevent genocide. That seems better than someone encouraging it.

Would love to see research on what effect Gaza protests had on 2024 elections. Did it help Trump or Republicans in House by depressing Democratic turnout? If so, they were counterproductive.

I think they need to be libertarian on pot — most of the Democrats actually are. When Biden was in office, he didn’t get done the most important change on pot he could have.

I do not claim any expertise on Gaza, but my strong impression is that Israel is committing horrific atrocities in the region and the US should use its leverage to try to stop them.