Mark Ungewitter

Comment: Momentum is a single variable but arguably reflects a variety of factors. From a behavioral perspective, momentum itself is the interesting thing. The greatest momentum occurs early in cyclical advances and late in cyclical declines, a key market asymmetry, in my view.

Today’s momentum regime is far from over if history is any guide. A 5-10% drawdown, if that’s what’s brewing, would most likely present a buying opportunity.

Comment: In my data back to 1960, ZBT setup has never occurred this close to a record high, begging the question: Is the market sufficiently oversold to impart traditional meaning to a hypothetical signal?

NYSE advancers divided by advancers plus decliners logged a 10-day EMA of .397 on Oct 10th, creating the condition for a Zweig thrust. A print above .615 by Oct 24th is required to generate a signal, but signals are exceedingly rare. Only 2% of setups since 1960 have panned out.

A classic case of gold being gold. 🤪

TLT lift-off? 🤔

Short-term divergences sometimes matter and sometimes don't, making them a condition, not a signal.

Unusually high GLD volume is associated with tops or pre-tops. Don't shoot the messenger.

Just noting market behavior. Today we have acute international tensions and challenges to democratic institutions, but the millennial-decade saw financial crisis and QE. The 70s saw guns & butter inflation and the advent of floating currencies. History doesn't repeat, but behavior can rhyme.

Here's an extended lookback using simple 100wma rather than exponential 200wma. Trailing stops, anyone?

Fresh base breakout. #PALL

Comment: 52-week momentum is unlikely to peak before April 2026 given the sharp drawdown ending in April 2025. 🤔

Mid-week humor

Here's a look using simple 100wma rather than exponential 200wma. Melt-up is possible, but not my central thesis. Trailing stops, anyone?

A 1970s-style melt-up is possible, but not my central thesis.

Gold variance vs. 200-week exponential average surpassed 60% at yesterday's close, suggesting a pause or correction if millennial-decade behavior is any guide.

The current advance is youthful if counted from April 2025 but mature if counted from Oct 2022. A near-classic sequence of breadth washout, breadth thrust, price momentum, and breadth recovery suggest that April 2025 was in fact a cyclical reset. What would negate this thesis?

Thanks! Hadn't seen it. 👍👍

I hate to disagree with PTJ, but upside momentum almost always precedes price.

The recent spike in 10-day SPX vs. VIX correlation is concerning. It’s worth noting, however, that prior cases occurring within six months of a Zweig thrust signal either failed (Jul 2009, Dec 2011) or produced a mild correction (Apr 2019). Never a lay-up, is it?

At risk of angering the market gods.

Around the world in equities versus gold. Long-term perspective.

Mid-week humor

Note to self: Avoid these species. #PermaPragmatic

You know you need a break from the markets when you regret filling up yesterday when crude is off 3% today. 🤪

Norman Fosback’s high-low logic is not indicating a split market. Note to self: What isn’t happening helps define what is.

Precious metals are the healthiest alternative assets, by this reckoning.

$4100 on track.

"Market timing, by the way, is a tag some buy-and-hold investors use to put down anything that involves using your brain.” –Jeremy Grantham